Democrats Introduce Bill to Ban Polymarket US Prediction Market Contracts
Congress simply put prediction markets like Polymarket US and Kalshi instantly in its crosshairs, and the market is spooked. House Democrats launched the ‘Banning Games on Deaths and Elections Act’ this week.
It is a invoice that may explicitly prohibit occasion contracts tied to elections, conflict, and dying on platforms together with Polymarket and Kalshi. The laws arrives as scrutiny of insider buying and selling on these platforms has reached a breaking level.
JUST IN:
U.S. lawmakers launched the “DEATH BETS Act” to ban prediction markets that allow merchants wager on conflict, assassinations, or individuals dying. pic.twitter.com/UPyvHU5HQw
— SwanDesk (@SwanDesk) March 11, 2026
Separately, Sen. Adam Schiff and Rep. Mike Levin unveiled the DEATH BETS Act, a companion push concentrating on the identical contract classes underneath the Commodity Exchange Act.
Rep. Jamie Raskin, main the House effort, referred to as election playing contracts a direct risk to democratic integrity. This information comes as Bitcoin USD fell -1.8% in a single day, dropping $70,000 within the course of, and is at present buying and selling at $69,500.
What is the DEATH BETS Act, and What Does it imply for the Likes of Polymarket and Kalshi?
Both payments tackle the paradox within the Commodity Exchange Act relating to occasion contracts, significantly these associated to assassinations, army strikes, or election outcomes. They purpose to explicitly prohibit such contracts.
The Banning Games on Deaths and Elections Act would amend the Act to categorize contracts involving these occasions as “opposite to the general public curiosity,” a regular the CFTC makes use of to block listings.
Currently, there isn’t any stable legislative basis for this definition, which allowed Kalshi to efficiently problem the CFTC in court docket final 12 months.
The DEATH BETS Act goes additional, concentrating on any CFTC-registered alternate that handles contracts associated to terrorism, assassination, conflict, or particular person deaths. A reported half-billion {dollars} was wager on the timing of US army strikes on Iran.
Research signifies insiders profited considerably from these bets, together with one dealer who earned $553,000 from a contract tied to the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei.
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What This Means for Polymarket US and Kalshi
Kalshi and Polymarket approached the Iran contracts otherwise: Kalshi voided its Supreme Leader contract due to a technicality within the language, whereas Polymarket settled the wager, main to $679M in conflicting market outcomes and regulatory scrutiny.
Kalshi gained a authorized battle permitting it to resume US election betting, however the proposed Banning Games on Deaths and Elections Act might rapidly reverse that call.
Meanwhile, Polymarket continues to dominate international prediction market quantity, with over $3.6Bn in bets throughout the 2024 presidential cycle alone, however could now face elevated stress from the CFTC and SEC if the invoice progresses.
What Traders Are Watching Next within the Prediction Markets Space
The political panorama for the DEATH BETS Act is sophisticated. Representative Raskin and the sponsors face resistance from a crypto-friendly faction in a divided Congress, with no cross-party assist and no scheduled committee votes.
Meanwhile, the CFTC goals to broaden using prediction markets via Cboe’s partial-payout framework. Economist Alex Tabarrok argues that limiting these markets hinders info aggregation, likening occasion contracts to insurance coverage merchandise.
If both invoice passes the committee, the CFTC might instantly delist conflict and dying contracts. If each payments stall, the company will proceed underneath its ambiguous mandate, permitting platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket US to function. The focus now stays on the DEATH BETS Act textual content and committee timeline.
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