Dogecoin Breaks Its ‘Lower-Band Prison’ As Daily Trend Flips
The Dogecoin worth is presently up by roughly 17% because the December 31 low and the rebound is beginning to look much less like a dead-cat bounce and extra like a regime change, in response to crypto analyst Cantonese Cat, who factors to a transparent shift in how DOGE is buying and selling inside its Bollinger Bands on the each day chart.
The setup issues now as a result of worth has moved from months of lower-band stress into the higher half of the vary, usually the earliest inform that development conduct is rotating.
Cantonese Cat’s newest each day view (Binance) frames the transfer by way of Bollinger Band positioning somewhat than pattern-chasing. As the analyst put it: “DOGE each day reveals a transparent development change that’s simple to see once you see the way it was using on the decrease half of the Bollinger band for months however now has a transparent change in character.”
That “character” is seen within the band mechanics. DOGE closed round $0.1405 on the print proven, now buying and selling above the 20-day foundation line close to $0.1348 after spending a lot of the prior stretch leaning into the decrease half of the envelope. The higher band is close to $0.1564 and the decrease band close to $0.1132.
In the analyst’s framing, the idea line turns into the near-term “line within the sand” for whether or not this can be a real development flip or just a volatility growth that fades. Holding above it retains worth within the higher half of the bands, the place developments sometimes behave in another way than they do throughout lower-band rides.
Weekly And Monthly Chart Support The Thesis
Zooming out, Cantonese Cat’s weekly chart (Dec. 20) casts the broader structure as an Elliott-style sequence: a accomplished Wave 1 advance adopted by a Wave 2 correction. The analyst wrote: “We’ve already had a 13 month bear marketplace for DOGE, with my working speculation of this being probably a wave 2 correction previous to wave 3 explosion. The complete motive why this may increasingly play out is that it doesn’t really feel probably proper now, and also you need me to cease posting.”
The ranges on the chart are specific. DOGE is sitting between the 0.382 retracement close to $0.1177 and the 0.5 stage close to $0.1542, with increased retracement markers at roughly $0.2021 (0.618), $0.2477 (0.707), $0.2968 (0.786), and $0.3732 (0.886).
Above that, the 1.0 stage is labeled close to $0.4844, with extensions reaching roughly $0.9029 (1.272), $1.2497 (1.414), $1.9934 (1.618), $4.7793 (2.0), and $8.9077 (2.272), the latter aligning with the analyst’s repeatedly cited “$9 area” goal for this cycle.
On Jan. 9, Cantonese Cat paired DOGE’s month-to-month chart with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), arguing a recurring bull-phase rhythm: “DOGE has at all times been about 2-4 months behind IWM through the bull section.”
The comparability highlights prior situations the place IWM’s breakout conduct preceded DOGE’s main upside phases, implying DOGE’s present enchancment could possibly be learn as a delayed echo if the template holds.
Overall, the near-term query is whether or not DOGE can hold closing above the each day Bollinger foundation (~$0.1348) and keep away from slipping again into the lower-half posture that outlined the prior months. On the upside, a break above the higher band area (~$0.1564) and the 0.5 Fib ($0.1542) is essential for additional upside.
At press time, DOGE traded at $0.13674.
