Dogecoin Flashes Major Rebound Signal As Exchange Flows Flip, Analyst Warns
Dogecoin’s trade dynamics have flipped at a key second, with recent on-chain knowledge pointing to a shift in short-term market construction. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez (@ali_charts) highlighted a Glassnode chart exhibiting that Dogecoin’s internet provide on centralized exchanges has simply turned optimistic, noting on X: “Dogecoin provide on exchanges simply turned optimistic! This shift has marked sharp rebounds earlier than.”
Dogecoin Rebound Loading?
The chart in his post, “DOGE: Exchange Net Position Change – All Exchanges,” tracks month-to-month trade inflows and outflows as a histogram, alongside DOGE’s value in US {dollars}. Green bars point out internet inflows (extra DOGE transferring to exchanges than leaving), whereas pink bars present internet outflows.
From mid-2024 by late 2024, the collection alternates between modest pink and inexperienced intervals earlier than a sustained cluster of robust inexperienced bars emerges across the fourth quarter of 2024. During that part, internet inflows rise to a number of billion DOGE per thirty days. At the identical time, the worth line accelerated from beneath $0.10 to an area peak to $0.48, illustrating how heavy exchange-side exercise accompanied the rally.
After that peak, the construction adjustments. Through early and mid-2025, the histogram turns into extra blended, with smaller optimistic and unfavourable reads as value oscillates broadly between roughly $0.12 and $0.30. Heading into late 2025, nonetheless, the chart exhibits a pronounced sequence of pink bars, with internet outflows extending down towards roughly −5 to −6 billion DOGE whereas the worth tendencies decrease from the mid-$0.20s towards the low-$0.20s and beneath.
The last knowledge level, emphasised by a round spotlight on the fitting fringe of the chart, marks a transparent break in that sample: a tall inexperienced bar crosses again above the zero line, indicating that internet flows have turned optimistic once more. At that second, the worth line sits barely above the $0.15 mark on the vertical scale. Martinez interprets this as a “main rebound sign,” pointing to earlier situations the place the same transition from persistent outflows to robust inflows coincided with sharp directional strikes.
DOGE On Thin Ice Below $0.16
A second chart he shared, an ATH-partitioned UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), units out the place the present DOGE provide final moved on-chain. A single, dominant bar seems round $0.07392452 and accounts for 28,260,298,271.803 DOGE, or 18.62% of the measured provide. Martinez summarizes this by stating that 27.4 billion DOGE have gathered at roughly $0.08, calling it the “most vital assist stage.”
Between that $0.07–$0.08 block and roughly $0.16, the URPD exhibits a shaded “GAP” with solely small intermediate bars round ranges comparable to $0.096, $0.125 and $0.155. Above the hole, a smaller however nonetheless notable cluster seems at about $0.162633395, containing 4,399,496,300.739 DOGE (2.9% of provide). “Below $0.16, assist for Dogecoin $DOGE disappears shortly,” Martinez warns, including that the “subsequent actual demand zone sits at $0.07.”
A 3rd chart, a cost-basis distribution heatmap, tracks DOGE’s value towards horizontal bands representing the place holders’ value bases are concentrated. It confirms two core cohorts: a decrease band between $0.0812497 and $0.08279775 with 27,397,971,652.123432 DOGE, and an higher band from $0.20103297 to $0.20486326 containing 12,156,333,652.493444 DOGE.
Together with the newly optimistic trade flows, these knowledge factors outline a market caught between a dense realized floor around $0.08 and a considerable holder cluster close to $0.20, with the newest circulation reversal now in focus for merchants monitoring DOGE’s subsequent transfer.
At press time, DOGE traded at $0.158.
