Don’t Get Excited For Bitcoin: The Trend Is Still Bearish, Analyst Warns
Bitcoin has opened the year on a positive note, with constructive worth motion after a negative end to 2025. Price motion has stabilized, and a latest break above $93,000 has encouraged positive momentum amongst merchants.
However, not everyone seems to be satisfied that this restoration is the return of a sustained bull pattern. An fascinating technical evaluation argues that all the Bitcoin construction nonetheless factors to weak point, warning that latest upside strikes could also be deceptive inside a bigger setup.
Analyst Says Bitcoin Is Bearish Below SuperGuppy
Technical analysis from a crypto analyst that goes by the title Alex Clay on the social media platform X has cautioned merchants towards getting carried away by Bitcoin’s latest bounce. In a submit shared on the social media platform, Clay famous that regardless of the constructive begin to the 12 months, Bitcoin will nonetheless proceed to pattern in a bearish pattern so long as the value stays under the SuperGuppy indicator.
According to his evaluation, the SuperGuppy, which mixes a number of shifting averages to outline pattern route, ought to now be considered as resistance quite than assist. Clay famous that Bitcoin’s present construction seems to be just like the earlier market cycle in early 2022, the place the same reduction rally occurred inside a broader downtrend earlier than the value rolled over once more. Back then, the reduction rally turned out to be a useless cat bounce and Bitcoin’s worth motion ultimately reversed course.
Furthermore, the present setup reveals Bitcoin’s market cap is buying and selling near the EMA 100 on the weekly candlestick timeframe. Since the most recent weekly candle is about to shut in constructive territory, it could be regular to expect an extended upside reaction from this degree. However, the analyst views any rebound from the EMA as corrective in nature, anticipating it to be short-lived and reverse for one more leg down.
Dead Cat Bounce Then Drop
The broader outlook is bearish, however Clay doesn’t rule out additional upside in the short term. The projection is that Bitcoin’s worth motion might still push to the $100,000 level or barely above. In this case, such a transfer could be a traditional useless cat bounce.
After the useless cat bounce, the analyst projected a downward transfer the place the Bitcoin market cap falls to as little as $1.35 trillion. This state of affairs interprets to a Bitcoin worth goal just under $69,000 primarily based on the present circulating provide.
From this technical standpoint, the essential situation that might weaken the bearish thesis is a sustained uptrend above the EMA 100 and a break above the SuperGuppy indicator. Without that, the evaluation means that the dominant pattern is to the draw back.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is buying and selling at $93, similar to beneficial properties of about 1% over the previous 24 hours and 6.3% over the previous seven days.