Don’t Sell Bitcoin Now — The Bull Trend Is Still Alive, Analysts Say
Following a pointy correction from its $126,000 peak, Bitcoin is at present buying and selling under $102,000. This value vary is prompting issues amongst buyers that it may sign the beginning of a deeper downtrend.
However, historic knowledge, technical indicators, and macroeconomic elements recommend that Bitcoin nonetheless has room to develop earlier than the present bull cycle ends.
The Technical Structure Remains Bullish Despite the Correction
According to analyst Colin, Bitcoin’s (BTC) uptrend has not been damaged so long as the value stays above the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA), regardless of slowing ETF inflows and limited liquidity. This key threshold separates bull and bear markets. Currently, Bitcoin hovers round this important stage, with the 50-week SMA sitting close to $102,000, which has traditionally supplied robust assist in earlier post-halving cycles.
Another analysis reinforces this view. Each time Bitcoin has touched the 50-week SMA throughout previous bull runs, it has rebounded strongly to retest or surpass earlier highs, with out closing a weekly candle under this stage. This sample emerged in each the 2016-2017 and 2020-2021 cycles, the place deep pullbacks launched the subsequent leg increased.
Analyst Lark Davis emphasised that as of November 7, Bitcoin was buying and selling round $103,400, holding above the identical SMA that has supported the uptrend since 2023. He known as this stage the “line within the sand”, warning {that a} weekly shut under it may result in a steep 60% correction towards $40,000, based mostly on mannequin projections.
“We’re sitting proper on the 50-week SMA – the road within the sand. If we shut under, issues may get difficult,” Lark cautioned.
Meanwhile, Scott Melker supplied a historic perspective: Bitcoin has solely misplaced the 50-week SMA assist 4 occasions (in 2014, 2018, 2020, and 2022), every time resulting in a retest of the 200-week SMA, signaling a chronic bearish part. Since Bitcoin has not but closed under the $102,000 area, the potential for restoration stays.
In brief, these alerts recommend that Bitcoin’s technical construction nonetheless favors an uptrend however warrants warning. A stable weekly shut above $106,000 may verify a rebound, paving the best way for a retest of the $120,000-$125,000 zone.
Macroeconomic Conditions Still Support the Bitcoin Uptrend
Beyond technical charts, macroeconomic elements are more and more aligning in Bitcoin’s favor. According to Colin, one main cause promoting Bitcoin now can be a mistake is the shifting financial coverage backdrop. This backdrop is especially influenced by alerts of an finish to Quantitative Tightening (QT) and the potential for the Fed to cut rates.
Data compiled by analyst Brett shows that in 2019, when the US Federal Reserve ended QT and started reducing rates of interest, Bitcoin and Ethereum initially fell by 35% and 45%, respectively, earlier than rallying strongly as Quantitative Easing (QE) resumed in early 2020.
The present macro setup bears placing similarities. Analyst Momin famous that QT seems to be ending, and charge cuts may return inside the subsequent few quarters, a shift that would inject liquidity again into danger property, comparable to Bitcoin.
“With indicators of QT ending & extra charge cuts to return… there are good odds we see $BTC go increased until the tip of This autumn,” he remarked.
Colin additionally predicts that Bitcoin may resume its uptrend by mid-November, citing cyclical indicators that always precede new progress phases. He additional anticipates a decline in Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) over the subsequent 1-3 weeks, probably signaling the beginning of an altseason —a interval when altcoins outperform after Bitcoin stabilizes close to a major assist stage or a cycle high. However, so far, solely three of the 55 main altcoins have outperformed BTC.
“My guess for a Bitcoin value prime is $140K-$180K in early 2026. This appears cheap to me,” Colin added optimistically.
In conclusion, if the Federal Reserve pivots towards financial easing and world liquidity expands, Bitcoin may mirror the 2020 situation, the place macroeconomic liquidity turned the first driver of the bull market. However, coverage results usually lag, which means the market’s response might take a number of weeks to materialize.
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