End-of-July Crypto Check-In: BTC, ETH, TON Cool Off After the Climb

So here we are at the end of July, and it’s been one of those months where you blink and Bitcoin’s at $124k, then blink again and you’re trapped in a sideways box. In other words, BTC hit fresh all-time highs earlier this month, and ever since it’s been range city. Same goes for ETH and even dark horse TON. The question now isn’t “what happened,” it’s “what’s coming in August.” Let’s break that down coin by coin.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin’s done something kind of beautiful this month, but then left us all frustrated. It pushed through $120K, grabbed liquidity above and below, and now it’s just floating. For over a week, it’s been pinned between ~$115K and ~$120K, which on the one hand suggests uncertainty – but on the other, it screams accumulation. If you ask us, smart money doesn’t accumulate at the top if they think the party’s over. 

BTC/USD 4H Chart, Coinbase. Source: TradingView 

And there’s been real news driving this chop: Spot ETF inflows slowed down (we had 12 straight green days before that).

Spot Bitcoin ETFs see outflows after 12-day inflow streak. Source: SoSoValue

Galaxy Digital dumped billions in old BTC, and retail kind of ghosted after the July fireworks. 

Source: Lookonchain

But overall the market held up. Price didn’t collapse. That tells us demand is real, and maybe more patient than expected.

Meanwhile, regulatory winds are blowing in from DC and Tokyo. The GENIUS Act just gave stablecoins a clear regulatory lane in the US. 

Source: Cointelegraph

Japan’s XRP-for-coffee program (well, technically Aplus and SBI’s point-to-crypto plan) shows how seamlessly crypto is slipping into consumer finance.

Souce: Cointelegraph

As you can see, we’ve had a lot of major crypto-specific developments this July. And it’s as if all of that is building up to something, isn’t it? 

So, let’s face it: that tight BTC range is going to snap – and not gently. All the volatility compression points to a big move brewing. If bulls can push above $123K with volume, we could easily be looking at a leg toward $135K. But if that $115K floor gives? A test of the high $100Ks isn’t off the table. Either way, August will not be boring.

Ethereum (ETH)

Meanwhile, ETH is quietly having itself a great time. It’s methodically pushing back toward $4K while Bitcoin takes a breather. On the 4H chart we see a consolidation followed by a slow grind upward.

ETH/USD 4H Chart, Coinbase. Source: TradingView 

And, most importantly, all that has been buoyed by a firehose of institutional demand. For one, SharpLink bought nearly $300M worth of ETH. 

Source: Lookonchain

Next, BitMine’s gunning for 6 million ETH in treasury. 

BitMine is the largest Ether treasury firm after its latest purchase. Source: Strategic Ether Reserves

And don’t forget about ETF flows: therse haven’t just held steady – they’ve outpaced Bitcoin for days now.

Ether ETFs’ net inflow in the past six days hit $2.39 billion. Source: Farside Investors.

You could argue ETH is doing what BTC used to do: lead the smart money. And maybe that’s true – at least, for now. Its supply is tightening, its staking ecosystem is sticky, it’s got ETFs, DAOs, and DeFi builders treating it like actual digital infrastructure.

But – fair warning – sentiment is getting frothy. RSI’s nearing overboughts, and social chatter is getting euphoric. And we all know what happens when Twitter starts calling $9K targets unironically. So in August, we might finally get the showdown: does ETH break $4K with authority, or do we get a “healthy” gut check back toward $3K?

And let’s not forget that, if Bitcoin breaks up, ETH is almost guaranteed to follow – maybe even outperform. But if BTC fumbles, ETH might bleed harder in the short term. Either way, as a crypto trader you should be watching ETH like a hawk. 

Toncoin (TON) 

If you’ve been tracking TON lately, you’ve probably noticed it’s not doing anything flashy on the charts. Price-wise, it’s been inching back up after the mid-July dip, sitting around $3.40 now, holding the 50 SMA on the 4H. Not exactly a headline move, but also not a breakdown. 

TON/USD 4H Chart. Source: TradingView 

What’s more interesting – and ever more relevant if you’re thinking ahead to August – is what’s been happening around the token.

First up: TON Wallet is now live for U.S. Telegram users. Yeah, it’s only the non-custodial version for now, but this is the first time U.S.-based Telegram users can interact directly with TON through the app. That opens a door, and while it’s not going to move the price overnight, it’s one of those things that could quietly scale if users actually engage with it.

Then there’s some ‘bigger picture’ kind of stuff. Kingsway Capital is reportedly trying to raise $400 million to build out a TON treasury reserve.

Source: Bloomberg Law

You might’ve seen similar moves in ETH and BTC – this fits that same trend of institutions building crypto positions, just a layer deeper down the stack. The fact that TON’s even in the mix says a lot about how it’s being viewed by ‘that’ side of the market.

Source: Crypto Daily

And if you’ve been keeping an eye on Telegram updates, there’s been a steady drumbeat of changes that quietly tie back to TON. Gifting is now limited to Premium users, and Telegram is testing a new “payment rating” system tied to star purchases – basically gamifying in-app spending. Even Pavel Durov jumped in this week with a post about username scams and asked people to message him directly… for 5,000 stars. It sounds a bit out there, but it reinforces something important: Telegram is monetizing, and TON is part of the rails.

Source: TON Core on Telegram

Finally, under all this, the network got a technical upgrade – Accelerator – which brings it closer to the architecture laid out in the original whitepaper. It introduces new node roles and improves how the network handles high load. Not a market mover per se, but definitely a readiness move.

Final thoughts – So, August?

Let’s be honest. Most of us are sitting on positions and staring at charts, wondering when this range breaks. That’s the thing about post-ATH chop: it’s psychologically brutal, because you know a breakout’s coming, but not when. The good news is, August is almost guaranteed to deliver movement. There’s no crystal ball, but here’s the smart take: stay agile, watch funding rates and ETF flows, and don’t fall asleep on altcoins like TON that are building even when no one’s watching. Because the next big leg usually starts the moment everyone looks away.

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