ETH Price Analysis: Why the $3K Resistance Could Trigger a Drop

Ethereum stays locked in a sideways construction, buying and selling just under the psychological $3k mark.

Despite a number of makes an attempt, patrons have struggled to generate follow-through momentum.

The current value motion displays a market caught in indecision, with weakening bullish conviction and no actual dominance from sellers. Meanwhile, on-chain knowledge is beginning to stir, hinting that the subsequent transfer might be brewing beneath the floor.

Technical Analysis

The Daily Chart

On the each day chart, ETH continues to consolidate between the $2,700 help zone and the $3,300 resistance, with value hovering round $2,970 at the time of writing.

The 200-day EMA (orange) and 100-day EMA (blue) proceed to behave as dynamic overhead resistance and have additionally printed a bearish crossover. This makes them a key confluence zone simply above $3,300, the place the value was beforehand rejected.

The RSI additionally stays under the midline, suggesting no momentum shift but in favor of patrons. An in depth under $2,700 would possible set off a retest of the $2,200 macro demand space, whereas reclaiming $3,300 may open the door towards $3,700 and past.

For now, the market lacks a catalyst sturdy sufficient to interrupt out of this compression.

The 4-Hour Chart

Zooming into the 4H chart, ETH continues to be respecting the native buying and selling zone between $2,800 and $3,000, shifting sideways round the mid-range once more.

Price motion has been uneven, with failed breakouts each above and under, displaying clear indecision from either side.

The RSI has began climbing once more, which may point out some short-term upside, however with out reclaiming the $3,000–$3,100 provide zone, patrons stay at a drawback.

If the value consolidates above $3,100 once more with power, a rotation again to the higher resistance at $3,300 might be anticipated, however the construction nonetheless favors range-bound trades as issues stand.

On-Chain Analysis

Exchange Reserve

Ethereum’s trade reserves have been trending down constantly for many of 2025, reflecting a long-term pattern towards accumulation or self-custody. This has traditionally been interpreted as bullish, as fewer tokens on exchanges typically imply much less promote stress.

However, the current chart exhibits a refined however clear uptick in reserves, which is the first in months.

This may imply two issues: both merchants are getting ready to chop their losses from current consolidation, or bigger gamers are repositioning forward of a spike in volatility.

If this reserve build-up continues, it may level to elevated potential for sell-side exercise in the quick time period.

That mentioned, one uptick doesn’t change the long-term accumulation pattern but. It continues to be vital to observe whether or not that is a one-off transfer or the starting of a broader sentiment shift. If it’s paired with value rejection at resistance and rising open curiosity, it may verify preparation for draw back positioning.

 

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