Ethereum fees are plummeting so fast that Vitalik Buterin says most Layer 2 chains now lack purpose
Ethereum was cheaper than anticipated in 2020, and rollup decentralization was slower than promised in 2021. Those two realities are compelled the ecosystem to rewrite what “a layer-2” is for.
Vitalik Buterin’s current submit on Ethereum Research bluntly frames the shift: the unique imaginative and prescient of layer-2 (L2) blockchains as “branded shards” of Ethereum is not viable, and the ecosystem requires a brand new path.
However, this is not abandonment. Instead, it’s a re-tiering of expectations and a sharper definition of what several types of rollups are really constructing.
The query now is the brand new job description, because the premise underlying the rollup-centric roadmap has weakened.
Stage 2 is scarce
L2BEAT gives the clearest framework for understanding rollup decentralization via its Stages system.
Stage 0 denotes that coaching wheels stay in place, with significant belief assumptions persisting.
Stage 1 represents partial decentralization with stronger escape hatches and proof ensures, however nonetheless significant improve or governance belief.
Stage 2 is the “no coaching wheels” milestone, through which important security properties are enforced by code reasonably than by discretionary actors.
The present distribution of worth secured throughout the L2 ecosystem signifies this. According to L2BEAT’s rollup scaling abstract, roughly 91.5% of the listed worth sits in Stage 1 rollups, 8.5% in Stage 0, and roughly 0.01% in Stage 2.
The prime three rollups by worth account for roughly 71% of the full, indicating that “Stage 2 progress” largely relies on the selections of the most important few initiatives, reasonably than on what smaller experimental chains try.
The core blocker is whether or not the proof programs may be overridden and whether or not upgrades face robust delays and constraints.
Upgrade discretion stays frequent among the many largest rollups, and transferring past it has confirmed slower and tougher than anticipated by the 2020-2021 optimism.
Some initiatives have explicitly said that they may not wish to proceed beyond Stage 1, citing not solely technical constraints associated to zkEVM security but in addition regulatory necessities that require absolute management.
That’s a legit product determination for sure buyer bases, however it clarifies that these chains are not “scaling Ethereum” within the sense the rollup-centric roadmap initially meant.
| Project | Stage | TVS ($) | Proof sort | Upgrade key / safety council current? | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arbitrum One | 1 | 16.16B | Optimistic | Yes | Emergency path can skip delays |
| Base Chain | 1 | 10.99B | Optimistic | Yes | Upgrades permitted by a number of events; no delay |
| OP Mainnet | 1 | 1.88B | Optimistic | Yes | Security council prompt improve energy |
| Lighter | 0 (Appchain) | 1.27B | Validity | Yes | 21d delay, emergency can go to 0 |
| Starknet | 1 | 676.17M | Validity | Yes | Security council can improve with no delay |
| Ink | 1 | 523.71M | Optimistic | Yes | Security council + basis approvals; no common delay |
| Linea | 0 | 492.93M | Validity | Yes | Multisig can improve with no delay |
| ZKsync Era | 0 | 417.07M | Validity | Yes | Emergency board can bypass improve delays |
| Katana | 0 | 297.94M | Validity | Yes | safety council can take away the improve delay |
| Unichain | 1 | 168.81M | Optimistic | Yes | no exit window for normal upgrades; prompt powers |
Why the constraints modified
The Oct. 2, 2020, submit “A rollup-centric Ethereum roadmap” on the Fellowship of Ethereum Magicians laid out the unique thesis.
Gas costs had been climbing, some functions had been being compelled to close down, and the conclusion was that the ecosystem can be “all-in on rollups” for the close to and medium time period.
Base-layer scaling ought to prioritize knowledge capability for rollups, and customers would more and more dwell on L2.
Two laborious details have shifted since then. First, L1 is considerably cheaper at current. Etherscan reveals a seven-day common transaction payment of round $0.35 and gasoline snapshots within the fractions of a gwei.
On Jan. 16, Ethereum recorded an all-time high of 2,885,524 transactions in a single day. The narrative is “busier and cheaper,” precisely the alternative of the 2020 disaster that motivated the rollup-centric roadmap.
Second, L1 execution capability is rising. Ethereum’s block gasoline restrict was raised to roughly 60 million after broad validator signaling in late 2025, up from the long-standing 30 million restrict.
At roughly 12-second blocks, 60 million gasoline interprets to roughly 5 million gasoline per second.
Aspirational group discussions have talked about targets as high as 180 million gasoline, which might symbolize a threefold improve, although that stays directional reasonably than dedicated.
The clear interpretation: the 2020 premise that “L1 cannot scale for most customers” is weaker in at this time’s payment regime. This creates room for L2s to be a spectrum of safety and sovereignty trade-offs reasonably than all being near-identical “shards” competing solely on worth.
L2s as a spectrum, not clones
Buterin’s proposed reframing treats L2s as occupying a full spectrum.
On one finish are chains backed by the total religion and credit score of Ethereum, with distinctive properties, not simply EVM clones but in addition privacy-focused programs, non-EVM execution environments, or ultra-low-latency sequencers.
At the opposite finish are choices with various ranges of Ethereum connectivity that customers and functions can select primarily based on their particular wants.
The new minimal bar is simple: in the event you deal with ETH or Ethereum-issued belongings, attain no less than Stage 1.
Otherwise, you are a separate L1 with a bridge, and will name your self that. The differentiation bar is more durable: be one of the best at one thing aside from “low cost EVM.”
Examples Buterin cites embody privateness, effectivity specialised to a specific utility, actually excessive scaling past even an expanded L1, basically different designs for non-financial applications equivalent to social or id programs, ultra-low-latency sequencing, or options equivalent to built-in oracles or decentralized dispute decision that aren’t computationally verifiable.
The mechanism that may facilitate that is nonetheless beneath investigation. A “native rollup precompile” would allow Ethereum to confirm a typical zkEVM proof inside the protocol.
For rollups that are “EVM plus extras,” this implies the canonical EVM verification happens trustlessly on the protocol stage, and the rollup solely must show its customized extensions individually.
This may allow stronger interoperability and pave the way in which for synchronous composability, through which contracts throughout totally different rollups can work together inside the similar transaction. Yet, it stays a analysis trajectory, not a deployed function.
The Jan. 16 post “Combining preconfirmations with primarily based rollups for synchronous composability” and the Feb. 2 post “Synchronous composability between rollups by way of realtime proving” lay out the design house however do not symbolize shipped protocol changes.
Three buckets rising
If this reframing takes maintain, count on rollups to separate into clearer classes.
The first bucket is Stage 2-chasing settlement rollups that maximize Ethereum safety inheritance.
These initiatives goal to realize code-enforced ensures with minimal discretionary governance, treating “scaling Ethereum” as their core mandate.
The second bucket is regulated or managed execution environments.
These optimize for compliance, permissioning, or particular institutional necessities. They could by no means progress past Stage 1 by design, and they need to market that management actually as a function reasonably than pretending to supply full decentralization.
The third bucket is specialised chains optimized for latency, privateness, app-specific execution, or non-financial use circumstances.
Privacy rollups utilizing zkProofs to cover transaction particulars, ultra-low-latency sequencers for buying and selling functions, or social and id programs with basically totally different state fashions all fall inside this class.
These do not should be EVM-compatible and even monetary to justify their existence, they should present worth that their customers cannot get elsewhere.
Projects equivalent to Arbitrum One, Optimism, Base, zkSync Era, and Starknet will every must determine which class they’re pursuing. The ecosystem is giant sufficient to assist all three, however the assumption that each L2 performs the identical operate is fading.
What modifications for customers and builders
For customers, the burden shifts to understanding ensures. Escape hatches, improve delays, proof programs, and censorship resistance turn into product differentiators reasonably than assumed properties.
Wallets and interfaces might want to label belief assumptions extra explicitly, and the L2BEAT Stages framework goals to make these assumptions legible.
For builders, “low cost EVM” is commoditized. Differentiation strikes to privateness and customized digital machines, ultra-low-latency sequencing, app-specific throughput optimizations, non-financial functions in social, id, or AI contexts, or compliance and permissioning as an specific product, with out claiming it is “Ethereum scaling.”
For the broader market narrative, count on a louder debate about whether or not L2s “inherit Ethereum safety” in apply reasonably than as an aspiration.
The critique is already a speaking level amongst rival L1 proponents, and the ecosystem’s acknowledgment that many giant rollups stay at Stage 1 with discretionary governance provides that critique better traction.
Is an L2 revolution about to begin?
Ethereum is unlikely to see an L2 revolution. Instead, it’s going to witness a re-tiering.
The rollup-centric roadmap assumed that L2s can be near-identical “branded shards” competing totally on price, whereas L1 would stay costly and capacity-constrained.
That assumption not holds. L1 is cheaper and increasing, whereas L2s are diverging quicker than they are converging of their safety fashions and use circumstances, regardless of Stage 2 decentralization.
The new path acknowledges that actuality. L2s that custody ETH or Ethereum-issued belongings ought to meet a minimal safety bar, Stage 1 no less than. And past that, they need to compete on specialization and specific ensures reasonably than pretending to be interchangeable.
Native verification primitives and analysis on synchronous composability sign the place Ethereum goals to make that simpler, however these are trajectories, not deployed options.
The job description modified.
The minimal bar is to supply credible safety when dealing with Ethereum belongings. The differentiation bar is being one of the best at one thing, and being trustworthy concerning the belief mannequin.
The rollup-centric roadmap received upgraded to accommodate the fact that L1 is scaling and L2s are extra various than the unique imaginative and prescient anticipated.
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