Ethereum Is Fighting to Break a 6-Month Curse, But Things Can Go Wrong
Ethereum (ETH) worth is clinging to a 2.93% achieve in March, its first inexperienced month since August 2025. Every month from September via February closed within the pink, creating a six-month shedding streak that worn out over 50% of ETH’s worth.
With solely a few days left in March, the query is whether or not Ethereum can maintain this achieve or whether or not the forces constructing towards it’ll flip the month pink and lengthen the streak to seven.
March Started Strong, however the Second Half Tells a Different Story
The month-to-month returns chart reveals the harm. September 2025 fell 5.59%. October dropped 7.15%. November crashed 22.2%. December slipped 0.83%. January 2026 misplaced 17.7%, and February shed 19.6%.
March’s +2.93% stands alone in inexperienced, however the quantity masks what occurred within the second half of the month.
On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum price has been buying and selling inside a falling channel since March 16, when it peaked at $2,380. The channel has pushed ETH as little as $1,970, a correction of roughly 18% from the mid-March high. The ETH worth at present sits close to $2,020, nonetheless throughout the channel and nonetheless trending decrease.
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The first half of March delivered the positive factors. The second half has been steadily giving them again. If the channel continues to compress the worth towards the decrease boundary, the remaining days of March may decide whether or not the streak breaks or extends.
Two conviction-based metrics counsel the bears are gaining floor heading into the month’s shut.
Whales Are Dropping and Dip Buyers Are Fading
Ethereum whale wallets, excluding trade addresses, held 122.91 million ETH as not too long ago as 48 hours in the past. That steadiness has since dropped to 122.73 million, a discount of roughly 180,000 ETH. The timing is regarding as a result of it coincides with the worth sliding towards the decrease finish of the falling channel.
The Money Flow Index (MFI), a volume-weighted momentum indicator that acts as a proxy for getting, provides one other layer of concern. Between March 8 and March 28, the Ethereum worth trended larger on the 4-hour chart. However, the MFI throughout the identical window trended decrease.
That bearish divergence means dip-buying assist has been weakening all through March, even whereas the month-to-month worth motion stayed inexperienced. Each successive dip attracted much less shopping for quantity than the one earlier than. When whales are decreasing, and dip patrons are fading concurrently, the conviction ground beneath the present worth turns into thinner.
If the broader market continues to weaken, these two metrics counsel Ethereum might not have the demand to maintain its March positive factors.
Ethereum Price Forecast and the $1,970 Zone
The key stage is $1,972 (the $1,970 zone). It has held as assist since early March.
A 4-hour shut under $1,970 would break each the strongest assist stage (the 0.618 Fib stage) and push ETH closer to the falling channel’s decrease boundary.
Below that, $1,910 and $1,830 come into play. A break beneath $1,830 would affirm the channel breakdown, and the projected drop of roughly 10% from that stage targets the $1,650 zone. However, that type of drop may nonetheless take a while to materialize.
On the upside, ETH wants to reclaim and maintain above the $2,050 zone to relieve speedy strain. Above that, the channel’s higher boundary close to 2,110 turns into the primary actual take a look at of energy.
For now, $1,970 separates Ethereum’s first inexperienced month in seven from a breakdown that might push it towards $1,650.
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