Ethereum Transfer Surge Mirrors 2018 And 2021 Peaks – What Happens Next?
Ethereum stays below heavy strain, struggling to carry above the $2,300 stage as promoting dominates throughout the broader crypto market. After weeks of weakening construction, value motion has failed to draw sustained demand, prompting many analysts to warn that additional draw back should still lie forward. With danger urge for food fading and leverage being unwound, consideration is more and more shifting from short-term rebounds to alerts that would outline the following section of the cycle.
A current report from CryptoQuant highlights a notable growth on the community aspect. The Ethereum Transfer Count (Total), smoothed by a 14-day Simple Moving Average, surged sharply to roughly 1.17 million on January 29, 2026. This abrupt and near-vertical rise in exercise stands out towards current tendencies and has traditionally coincided with durations of heightened market stress slightly than natural progress.
While elevated community exercise is commonly related to adoption, sharp spikes of this magnitude are likely to emerge throughout moments of utmost positioning—both distribution into power or pressured motion throughout volatility. In previous cycles, comparable switch rely surges appeared close to main inflection factors, usually previous significant value corrections.
As Ethereum trades close to multi-month lows, this spike raises a essential query for investors: Does the surge in on-chain exercise mirror defensive repositioning forward of one other leg down, or is it the ultimate section of a broader reset? The reply might decide whether or not ETH stabilizes—or extends its decline.
Transfer Count Spikes Echo Prior Cycle Turning Points
The report explains {that a} retrospective take a look at Ethereum’s switch rely reveals a recurring and cautionary sample. Spikes of the magnitude seen just lately have solely appeared at a handful of essential turning factors within the community’s historical past. On January 18, 2018, a pointy surge in transfers marked the cycle peak, instantly adopted by the beginning of a protracted bear market. An identical occasion occurred on May 19, 2021, when a sudden bounce in community exercise coincided with a significant market crash and a deep value correction.
From an on-chain perspective, this context issues. While analysts usually affiliate rising community exercise with rising adoption, a parabolic surge in switch counts close to value peaks usually alerts an overheated market. These spikes are likely to happen throughout moments of utmost stress or euphoria, when massive volumes of belongings are shifting concurrently.
In observe, this could mirror distribution, as long-term holders or institutional members transfer funds towards exchanges to understand income or peak volatility, the place buying and selling exercise reaches a climax earlier than momentum reverses.
The present setup carefully resembles these earlier episodes. Although the broader macro atmosphere has modified since 2018 and 2021, the conduct of community members seems strikingly comparable. If historic patterns maintain, Ethereum could also be getting into a high-risk zone the place the chance of additional draw back will increase. Consequently, merchants and buyers should train warning and monitor affirmation alerts carefully earlier than assuming stability has returned.
Bearish Weekly Structure Signals Ongoing Downside Risk
Ethereum’s weekly chart exhibits a market that has decisively shifted from growth to distribution. The value is now struggling to stabilize after shedding the $2,300–$2,400 help zone. The newest breakdown pushed ETH again towards the $2,200 space, a stage that beforehand acted as a pivot throughout earlier consolidation phases in 2024 and mid-2025. The lack of ability to carry above this zone reinforces the concept sellers stay in management on larger timeframes.
From a pattern perspective, ETH is buying and selling beneath its short- and medium-term shifting averages. Both of which have rolled over and are starting to slope downward. This configuration usually displays a lack of upside momentum and alerts that merchants promote into rallies slightly than accumulate on dips. The long-term shifting common close to the mid-$2,400s has flattened. This means that the market is transitioning from pattern to vary, with draw back danger nonetheless current.
Elevated quantity accompanied the current sell-off, signaling conviction behind the transfer slightly than a low-liquidity drift. Historically, comparable quantity spikes throughout downswings have preceded both deeper drawdowns or extended consolidation phases.
ETH has additionally printed a sequence of decrease highs because the peak above $4,800, confirming a broader bearish market construction. Unless value can reclaim and maintain above the $2,400–$2,500 area, the trail of least resistance stays sideways to decrease. With the market seemingly probing for demand at decrease help ranges earlier than any sustainable restoration can kind.
Featured picture from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
