Ethereum Whales Add $1.3 Billion on ERC-8004 Hype — But One Metric Still Blocks a Rally
Ethereum has seen renewed consideration after the revealing of ERC-8004, a new AI-focused commonplace geared toward giving autonomous brokers on-chain identification, popularity, and validation. On the floor, it seems to be just like the type of innovation that ought to raise sentiment. Post that, the Ethereum worth was up virtually 2.5% over the previous 24 hours.
But the market response tells a completely different story. While massive holders have stepped in and the worth has stabilized, sentiment stays deeply depressed. The hole between structural progress and market confidence is now the important thing stress shaping Ethereum’s subsequent transfer.
ERC-8004 Price Impact? Why Ethereum’s AI Upgrade Might Not Drive A Rally, Yet
ERC-8004 is designed to assist decentralized AI brokers by giving them a moveable on-chain identification, popularity historical past, and validation. In easy phrases, it helps machines belief and transact with one another with out centralized platforms. That is a significant step for Ethereum’s long-term position in AI coordination.
However, sentiment information reveals the market is just not reacting the way in which it did to Ethereum’s last major upgrade cycle.
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When the Pectra improve went stay on mainnet in May 2025, constructive Ethereum sentiment jumped sharply. On the day of launch, the constructive sentiment rating sat close to 259. Within three days, it surged to 610, a achieve of roughly 135%. That growth in sentiment preceded Ethereum’s multi-month rally into late summer season (August), when the worth ultimately peaked after sentiment later reached yearly highs close to 749.
The distinction at this time is stark. During the ERC-8004 rollout, Ethereum’s constructive sentiment rating is sitting close to 18, the bottom studying of the previous 12 months. Compared with the Pectra launch baseline of 259, present sentiment is down greater than 90%.
The purpose lies within the nature of the improve. Pectra was a protocol-level enchancment tied to scalability, effectivity, and community fundamentals that instantly affected customers and costs. ERC-8004, in contrast, is extra like an application-layer commonplace. It is structurally necessary, however its advantages are early-stage and never but seen to most market individuals.
In brief, ERC-8004 issues for Ethereum’s future. But sentiment information makes it clear the market isn’t pricing in that future but.
Whales Accumulate as RSI Rebound Starts — But Smart Money Stays Cautious
While sentiment stays weak, on-chain habits reveals a completely different layer of positioning. But first, the worth chart must be checked out!
From a technical standpoint, Ethereum lately flashed a hidden bullish divergence between December 18 and January 25. Price made a increased low whereas the Relative Strength Index (RSI) made a decrease low. RSI measures momentum. This setup sometimes alerts that promoting stress is easing, not that a full pattern reversal has begun. The subsequent rebound confirmed stabilization and even averted the bear flag breakdown.
The Ethereum worth now simply must type a day by day shut above $3,160 to defeat the bearish sample.
Alongside that stabilization and hope for bearish invalidation, massive holders stepped in. Ethereum whales elevated their holdings from 104.18 million ETH to 104.61 million ETH following the ERC-8004 announcement. That is an addition of roughly 430,000 ETH. At a median worth, this equates to roughly $1.3 billion in accumulation.
This is just not small cash reacting emotionally to headlines. It is gradual, deliberate positioning.
However, one other metric tempers the rapid bullish interpretation. The Smart Money Index, which tracks participation from traditionally well-timed capital, stays beneath its sign line. In prior cycles, significant Ethereum rallies solely started after this index crossed upward. The final clear signal-line break preceded a rally of roughly 13%. That affirmation remains to be lacking.
Taken collectively, the message is evident. Whales are accumulating on weak point, seemingly with a long-term horizon. Smart cash is just not but chasing momentum, aligned with weak sentiment. This is positioning, not hypothesis. This outlook might preserve the ERC-8004 worth affect low.
Double Bottom Sets a $4,000 Ethereum Price Path?
Only after sentiment and positioning are understood does the bigger worth construction come into focus.
Ethereum recently avoided a breakdown and is now forming a double-bottom (W) construction on the day by day timeframe. This sample displays demand stepping in at comparable lows, creating the potential for a broader restoration if resistance ranges are cleared.
The construction defines a clear ladder of ranges.
The first resistance zone sits close to $3,160. Above that, the vital neckline of the double backside lies within the $3,390–$3,400 vary. This stage issues. A sustained break above it might activate the sample somewhat than merely recommend it.
If that neckline is reclaimed with affirmation, the construction opens conditional upside targets close to $3,790 and $4,170. An extra extension towards $4,410 would require not simply worth energy, however a materials growth in sentiment and smart-money participation.
Without that affirmation, the sample stays potential vitality, not a set off. On the draw back, dipping underneath $2,930 weakens the case. However, dropping $2,780 would invalidate the double backside construction and open decrease Ethereum worth ranges.
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