The first half of July was sturdy for crypto, with $BTC reaching a brand new ATH above $123k. But shortly after the Fan Token Index was first launched in the July 27, 2025 article as a solution to achieve broad publicity to the SportFi narrative, momentum stalled. Despite one other try at new highs in August, $BTC retraced by greater than 10%. Given the high correlation and higher volatility of most crypto belongings relative to $BTC, this era served as a significant stress take a look at for the Fan Token Index. What follows is a assessment of its efficiency since launch.

Source: TradingView

Assessing the First Month of the Fan Token Index

The Fan Token Index was structured with a 50% allocation to $CHZ, serving as the core proxy for the ecosystem. The remaining 50% was equally divided amongst chosen soccer membership Fan Tokens that met outlined standards, corresponding to: golf equipment with standout current seasons, main trophies, or participation in upcoming fundamental occasions like the 2026 World Cup or the Champions League. These embrace $ARG, $PSG, $BAR, $NAP, $GAL, and $JUV.

As anticipated, the index displayed vital volatility, fluctuating between 95 and 114 earlier than closing slightly below breakeven at 99.37 (-0.63%) as of September 4.

Source: TradingView (value information), creator’s evaluation (portfolio building). From July 27 to September 4, 2025.

In the earlier article, we famous that some would possibly argue Fan Tokens can not compete with the explosive beneficial properties of different tokens, like memecoins. As an instance, we highlighted $USELESS, which had reached a $377 million market cap inside only a few months of launch. Yet, as anticipated, that rally proved unsustainable: $USELESS has since fallen greater than 55% as consideration pale. 

This illustrates the core distinction, memecoins typically behave like lottery tickets, reliant on fleeting hype, whereas Fan Tokens are tied to real-world occasions and narratives. Even if their short-term efficiency is much less excessive, their drivers are simpler to anticipate and consider over time.

Source: Dexscreener

While the future is unsure, it’s affordable to ask whether or not consideration towards this theme will proceed to construct in the months forward, and in that case, whether or not token costs might commerce considerably increased. As Stanley Druckenmiller’s first mentor put it: “Never, ever put money into the current… You have to visualise the scenario 18 months from now, and no matter that’s, that’s the place the value will probably be, not the place it’s immediately.”

With that perspective in thoughts, we are able to assess the index’s efficiency not in isolation, however relative to benchmarks. Compared with $BTC and the particular person Fan Tokens that compose it, the index held up properly. As proven under, the index (black line) outperformed $BTC (orange line) over the whole interval, ending with a 5.11% relative achieve.

Source: TradingView (value information), creator’s evaluation (portfolio building). As of September 4, 2025.

Against its personal constituents, it outperformed 2 of the 7 tokens whereas sustaining decrease volatility at 10.9%. Only two tokens ended the interval in unfavourable territory: $CHZ (-8%) and $GALFT (-10.2%). The largest drag got here from $CHZ, which at a 50% weight had the best influence on outcomes. 

Source: TradingView (value information), creator’s evaluation (portfolio building). As of September 4, 2025.

Unlike membership Fan Tokens, $CHZ is tied to the general ecosystem quite than to a particular crew, which makes it much less conscious of match outcomes or football-related developments and extra influenced by basic market situations. Nonetheless, it stays a deliberate inclusion in the index, serving as a extra steady anchor whereas nonetheless offering publicity to the broader SportFi ecosystem.

That mentioned, traders with a better danger urge for food might select to exclude $CHZ and focus solely on the membership Fan Tokens. Over the similar interval, this model of the index would have carried out significantly higher (closing at +6.84%, or 12.54% above $BTC) with annualized volatility of 13.9%, solely modestly increased than the $CHZ-inclusive model. 

Source: TradingView (value information), creator’s evaluation (portfolio building). As of September 4, 2025.

The key benefit of this strategy is flexibility: it gives publicity to the SportFi narrative without having to select a single token upfront, whereas permitting allocations to evolve as situations change each on and off the pitch.

Rationale Behind the Index Constituents

In line with Druckenmiller’s mentor’s recommendation to concentrate on the place markets could also be heading quite than on the current, it’s helpful to revisit why every token was included in the index. This permits us to reassess over time whether or not these drivers stay legitimate and make changes if wanted.

In the July article, we highlighted the 2026 World Cup as considered one of the fundamental catalysts for the SportFi narrative. Over the previous 30 days, curiosity in the event has already began to construct considerably.

Source: Google Trends – Search time period: World Cup, final 30 days as of September 5, 2025.

Within that development, Argentina stands out as the most engaged area, which is considered one of the key causes $ARG was included in the index.

Source: Google Trends – Search time period: World Cup, final 30 days as of September 5, 2025

It gained’t be a coincidence if since the finish of July, $ARG has been the greatest performer, rising greater than 20%.

Source: TradingView. 

Its enchantment lies in a singular mixture of things: Argentina are the final World Cup champions, prediction markets rank them amongst the prime 5 contenders for 2026, and the token is successfully tied to considered one of the most passionate soccer fan bases. 

At present odds of roughly 10%, $ARG advantages from a component of uncertainty and shock, situations that always drive value motion greater than outcomes which can be already broadly anticipated.

Source: Polymarket

Moving on to nationwide soccer golf equipment, we chosen tokens from groups positioned to compete for his or her home leagues or the Champions League.

In Serie A, Napoli and Juventus have each began strongly, sitting first and second with equal factors. 

Source: Diretta.it

More importantly, prediction markets at present rank them amongst the prime three contenders for the league title, with Napoli at 38% and Juventus at 15%. While these odds are comparatively high, they fall wanting certainty, leaving room for shifts in expectations and potential value reactions of $NAP and $JUV as the season unfolds. In addition, each golf equipment are competing in the Champions League, the place their odds of successful are decrease than some rivals, however the potential for surprising outcomes stays.

Source: Polymarket

Regarding Barcelona, PSG, and Galatasaray, their home leagues are much less related for our functions. Each already holds sturdy successful odds (Galatasaray, for instance, has claimed three consecutive titles and is aiming for a fourth) so there may be restricted “shock impact” left to seize. Instead, their inclusion in the index is pushed by publicity to the Champions League, a serious competitors that constantly attracts world consideration and will considerably enhance demand for his or her Fan Tokens.

Within this group, $BAR and $PSG stand out as prime contenders, with prediction markets giving them 16% and 12% possibilities, respectively, of successful the event.

Source: Polymarket

By distinction, $GAL represents the riskiest part of the index, a view strengthened by its -10.2% efficiency over the previous month. While one other home league win is nearly assured, its probabilities of lifting the Champions League trophy are under 1%. 

Still, this very uncertainty creates optionality: any surprising progress in the event might set off a pointy repricing, notably given Turkey’s standing as considered one of the most energetic markets for Fan Tokens, with the largest variety of golf equipment represented.

Source: RocketFan

Looking forward, it is going to be essential to re-evaluate $GAL, and the different constituents, in the coming months to find out whether or not changes to the index are wanted.

Conclusion

The first month of the Fan Token Index has proven each the alternatives and challenges of capturing the SportFi narrative. While general efficiency remained round breakeven, the index nonetheless managed to outperform $BTC. The outcomes additionally verify the significance of allocation decisions, as $CHZ acted as a stabilizer however weighed on returns, whereas the membership Fan Tokens provided stronger upside potential.

Looking forward, the actual power of this framework lies in its adaptability. By monitoring narratives tied to real-world occasions corresponding to the World Cup and the Champions League, the index permits traders to remain uncovered to themes with clear catalysts whereas retaining flexibility to regulate constituents as situations evolve.

References

FanTokens | Link

FIFA World Cup | Link

Stanley Druckenmiller’s Lost Tree Club Lecture. Substack | Link

A Fan Token Index for World Cup 2026 and Beyond. BeInCrypto | Link

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