“Every Metric” Points to a Bitcoin Bear Market, CryptoQuant Analyst Says
Bitcoin is at present experiencing early phases of a bear market, primarily based on a number of on-chain and market indicators. This pattern is anticipated to proceed all through 2026, with costs seemingly to transfer decrease quite than attain new all-time highs.
In a dialog with BeInCrypto, Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, attributed the weakening demand as the principle motive for this outlook.
On-Chain Data Confirms Bear Market
While many buyers are nonetheless debating whether or not a broader crypto bear market lies ahead, Moreno stated Bitcoin had already entered one as early as November 2025.
“Basically each on-chain metric or market metric confirms that we’re in a bear market within the early phases,” he stated in a BeInCrypto podcast episode.
According to him, that is solely the start. He expects costs to proceed trending downwards within the upcoming months.
“The query is how lengthy it lasts or how low costs go, however from the place we’re beginning, I wouldn’t count on new all-time highs,” Moreno added.
Moreno’s bearish outlook isn’t pushed solely by worth motion, however by underlying fundamentals that he believes sign continued weak spot forward.
Bitcoin Demand Engine Starts Breaking
Bitcoin has been experiencing a structural contraction in demand over the previous a number of months. To observe this, CryptoQuant has been following the flow of exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Between 2024 and 2025, Bitcoin demand was supported by a number of robust, identifiable tailwinds. When US spot Bitcoin ETFs had been first launched, they triggered sustained institutional inflows and a sharp acceleration in demand.
Regulatory help within the United States underneath President Donald Trump additional bolstered threat urge for food.
However, this demand is now being dismantled.
“ETFs have develop into web sellers of Bitcoin since no less than early November,” Moreno stated, including, “They had been aggressively shopping for, then there was a slowdown, and now they aren’t shopping for, they’re promoting.”
This lack of demand has additionally develop into evident in different methods.
Forced Selling Risk Enters Focus
Last yr, the cryptocurrency market witnessed a surge in companies adopting Bitcoin as a treasury asset.
With Strategy (previously MicroStrategy) main the best way, corporations similar to MetaPlanet, Twenty One Capital, and MARA Holdings adopted a related accumulation playbook.
However, this rush to buy has faded.
“Other than MicroStrategy, principally all of the Bitcoin treasury corporations have stopped shopping for. If costs proceed declining, there may be a greater threat that we’ll see some corporations compelled to promote their holdings,” Moreno informed BeInCrypto.
It’s exactly this forced selling risk that will function a potential accelerator of draw back volatility.
According to Moreno, Bitcoin may attain a backside as little as $56,000.
Despite the draw back dangers, Moreno harassed that Bitcoin’s longer-term outlook will in the end rely on whether or not demand can recuperate.
“The second demand stops contracting and begins to develop once more, that’s when the market construction adjustments,” he stated.
Until that shift turns into seen on-chain, the best strategy to the market is considered one of warning.
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