Expert Forecasts Bitcoin Surge To $80,000 Amid US-Iran Ceasefire And Oil Price Drop
Market knowledgeable Sam Daodu has launched a brand new April outlook for Bitcoin (BTC), flagging geopolitical developments and macroeconomic forces because the decisive components for the place costs could go subsequent.
Daodu’s notice comes after Bitcoin bumped into resistance simply above roughly $72,000 and amid a market surroundings that has produced the asset’s first consecutive quarterly losses since 2022.
Bitcoin Faces Unusual April
Daodu pointed to Bitcoin’s historic tendency to complete April within the black: since 2013, the token has closed the month greater 9 occasions out of 13, a 69% win charge.
On paper, April appears beneficiant — the common return sits at 10.7% — however that imply is skewed by a handful of outsized years (2013, 2018, 2019, and 2020), every with good points above 28%. Strip out these excessive outliers, and the common April return falls to a subdued 0.7%.
More consultant measures present Bitcoin’s median April gain at 7.1%, with the most effective April on report in 2013 (+36.8%) and the worst in 2022 (−17.2%). These historic ranges, Daodu says, reveal how a lot April outcomes depend upon the broader macro backdrop.
What makes April 2026 uncommon, Daodu argues, is the dominance of exterior macro and geopolitical drivers that had been largely absent in prior years. The ongoing US–Iran battle has stored oil costs elevated — above $100 since early March — and the Federal Reserve (Fed) has revised its 2026 inflation forecast upward to 2.7%.
Those developments have knocked again expectations for near‑term rate cuts and left markets braced for greater charges into the second quarter. Taken collectively, tighter liquidity and heightened geopolitical danger create a harder surroundings for danger property, together with BTC.
Under these circumstances, Daodu warns, the same old early‑April dip and subsequent rebound are now not assured. Rather, three key components will decide Bitcoin’s future.
Whether oil drops beneath $90 per barrel, whether or not financial expectations ease, and whether or not the US-Iran ceasefire persists and results in a long-lasting deal.
Three Possible Paths
Daodu lays out three value situations to quantify how these outcomes might play out. In his bullish case, a real ceasefire coupled with oil costs falling beneath $90 would considerably relieve macro strain. That aid, he says, might permit Bitcoin to clear resistance above $75,000 and propel a run towards $80,000.
Progress on the CLARITY Act — legislative motion anticipated to be marked up in late April — would add gasoline to that rally by enhancing regulatory readability for digital property.
His base case envisions a extra muted month. Persistent tax‑associated promoting in early April might cap good points and hold BTC buying and selling between about $68,000 and $76,000. Without a transparent catalyst, resembling an finish to the battle, Bitcoin would doubtless consolidate in that band.
The bearish state of affairs entails a breakdown of the ceasefire and renewed escalation. In that occasion, Daodu says Bitcoin might lose its close by assist round $69,000, set off liquidations of leveraged positions, and see quick‑time period holders exit.
That strain might ship BTC towards $65,000 or decrease; the knowledgeable notes that Standard Chartered has warned of a deeper hunch towards $50,000 if macro circumstances deteriorate considerably.
Featured picture from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com