Extreme Fear Grips Crypto: What a 22 Fear & Greed Score Tells About Bitcoin’s Next Move
On October 17, 2025, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index plunged to 22 factors, marking a state of “excessive concern” – the bottom degree since April.
What may this imply for the market? Historical information and analysts’ insights provide clues to the reply.
Is October the Time to Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful?
The Fear & Greed Index is calculated based mostly on a number of elements: value volatility (25%), market momentum/buying and selling quantity (25%), social media sentiment (15%), surveys (15%), Bitcoin dominance (10%), and Google Trends (10%).
A studying under 25 usually indicators extreme concern, creating shopping for alternatives. However, it additionally warns of the danger of additional draw back.
According to information from various.me, the index plunged from 71 (Greed) simply a week earlier — a sharp shift in investor sentiment inside days.
The final time the index dropped this low, in April, it coincided with a main market backside. That interval was adopted by a robust rebound, throughout which Bitcoin surged greater than 70% over the subsequent six months.
Analyst Ted additionally famous that Bitcoin’s funding fee on Binance not too long ago turned unfavorable, which means merchants holding brief positions now pay charges to these holding lengthy positions.
Historically, this sign has usually marked a market backside, adopted by a robust rally, a sample seen in mid-2025.
An investor on X calculated that there have been seven unfavorable funding charges previously two years, every adopted by a mean acquire of 22% inside 15 days.
“Historically, this has resulted in a market backside and rally. Will it occur once more?” Ted said.
But This October Feels Different
The present concern extends past crypto. It has unfold into the broader inventory market as nicely.
On October 17, Barchart reported that equities had additionally been struck by “excessive concern” for the primary time in six months.
This unfavorable sentiment seemingly reflects broader macroeconomic worries, together with geopolitical tensions ensuing from President Trump’s commerce insurance policies towards China and recession and inflation fears tied to latest Federal Reserve fee selections.
Despite the gloom, André Dragosch, PhD, Head of Research at Bitwise, expressed confidence in Bitcoin’s relative resilience:
“Remember we have now already seen a vital capitulation in cryptoasset sentiment. It’s TradFi sentiment that’s doing the catch as much as the draw back right here. That’s why Bitcoin will most certainly keep comparatively resilient throughout this turmoil. Bitcoin as soon as once more the canary within the macro coalmine,” André Dragosch said.
Historical tendencies and Dragosch’s feedback highlight Bitcoin’s potential as a store of value during times of fear. This could counsel a possibility for buyers to construct positions at enticing ranges.
However, the technique of being “grasping when others are fearful” can backfire if concern persists or deepens over time.
Despite hopes for “Uptober,” a month that traditionally brings robust returns for Bitcoin, analysts note that 2025 is shaping as much as be Bitcoin’s fourth-worst yr since its creation, with year-to-date features of lower than 19% up to now.
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