Fed Rate Cut Odds Jump to 97% as CPI Comes in Cool at 3% – Bullish for BTC?
The United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.0% year-over-year in September, coming in under economists’ expectations of three.1% and marking the first time inflation has reached or exceeded 3% since January.
The cooler-than-expected studying got here as a shock, with odds of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in October surging to 97% on Polymarket instantly after the information launch.
Bitcoin responded by climbing again above $111,000.
Inflation Data Beats Expectations Across All Metrics
The September inflation uptick was pushed primarily by rising fuel and meals costs, with tariffs additionally contributing, in accordance to market observers.
However, the month-to-month improve of simply 0.3% got here in nicely under the projected 0.4%. In comparability, core CPI, excluding meals and power, moderated barely to 3.0% yearly with a month-to-month acquire of solely 0.2% versus expectations of 0.3%.
The softer-than-anticipated figures throughout all inflation metrics, mixed with recent labor market instability, have market members now pricing in a 25 to 50 foundation level fee lower at the Fed’s upcoming coverage assembly.
Speaking with Cryptonews, Farzam Ehsani, co-founder and CEO of VALR, defined how the macro setting may benefit Bitcoin shifting ahead.
“Should the U.S. CPI print come out smooth and commerce talks yield a, buyers might pivot from pure safety to development participation,” Ehsani mentioned.
“This shift would strengthen Bitcoin’s relative enchantment as it straddles each narratives—a hedge when issues worsen, and an funding play when circumstances stabilize.“
He famous that favorable macro developments might help a possible rally towards $130,000-$132,000 in Q1 2026.
However, he cautioned that “Bitcoin’s path increased is just not assured” given its hybrid nature as each a retailer of worth and a danger asset.
Market Participants Position for Fed Shift
An nameless dealer with a reported 100% win rate opened lengthy positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum price $155 million instantly after the CPI launch.
Pre-market inventory buying and selling confirmed sturdy danger urge for food with Nasdaq futures climbing 0.83% and S&P futures advancing 0.57%, which suggests broader market members view the information as supportive for danger belongings.
$BTC is again above $111,000 degree.
Today’s CPI print was decrease than anticipated, and it resulted in an preliminary pump.
Pre-market inventory buying and selling insights:
Nasdaq futures is up 0.83%
pic.twitter.com/HgRFEkK25y
— Ted (@TedPillows) October 24, 2025
Crypto analysts, together with Michael van de Poppe, suggested that lower-than-expected inflation readings might drive Bitcoin to a brand new all-time high inside the subsequent 30 days.
At the identical time, Global M2 cash provide continues to clarify greater than half of Bitcoin’s worth variance, in accordance to VanEck analysis, which they declare is “reaffirming Bitcoin’s function as an anti-money-printing asset”.
Bitcoin futures open interest hit $52 billion earlier than a wave of liquidations triggered an 18% worth decline in early October.
However, VanEck analysts interpret this as a typical mid-cycle pullback relatively than the start of a chronic bear market, noting that leverage metrics have returned to regular ranges at the 61st percentile.
Additionally, they see rising correlations between blockchain community revenues and token costs, alongside continued company Bitcoin accumulation, as an indication of accelerating institutional integration of digital belongings into conventional funding frameworks.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Will Historical MACD Pattern Repeat or Break?
According to analyst Ali Martinez, Bitcoin’s month-to-month MACD indicator reveals regarding historic patterns, with each earlier bearish cross on the month-to-month timeframe coinciding with common worth drops of round 70% primarily based on 4 situations since 2012.
These declines included an 80.46% drawdown in February 2012, a 73.23% drop round March 2018, a 60.20% correction in December 2019, and a 70.77% plunge round September 2021.
However, these bearish crosses occurred after main bull-market peaks and served as lagging affirmation of pattern modifications relatively than predictive warnings.
The present worth of round $110,000 represents roughly a 12% decline from latest highs round $126,000.
This means if a bearish MACD cross materializes, it might affirm the already evident weak spot relatively than serve as a warning.
The financial coverage setting with imminent fee cuts differs considerably from earlier bearish MACD intervals that occurred throughout Fed tightening cycles.
As it stands now, prolonged consolidation between $95,000 and $120,000 seems most definitely in the close to time period as markets digest competing forces.
However, a breakout above $120,000 on sustained quantity might speed up motion towards the $130,000- $132,000 vary by Q1 2026 if macroeconomic circumstances stay supportive.
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