Fed Rate Cuts Incoming: Why Analysts Doubt Bitcoin’s Next Rally
Bitcoin (BTC) is buying and selling tightly round $111,000 as markets await the Federal Reserve’s September 17 coverage determination, the place a price lower is extensively anticipated. Despite weaker U.S. jobs information, which generally boosts danger belongings, Bitcoin’s value has struggled to interrupt increased.
As of early Monday, Bitcoin was up 0.56% in 24 hours, buying and selling at $111,800. The muted value motion got here after August’s nonfarm payrolls confirmed simply 22,000 jobs added, far under expectations of 75,000.
The disappointing report bolstered expectations for financial easing, with the CME FedWatch Tool exhibiting a 100% chance of a September lower and even a ten% likelihood of a bigger 50-basis-point discount.
Analysts Split on Bitcoin (BTC) Outlook
Rachael Lucas, an analyst at BTC Markets, famous that whereas dovish Fed expectations often assist Bitcoin, the impact could already be priced in. “Institutional desks are taking income whereas ETF flows stay flat, capping momentum for now,” she stated.
Kronos Research CIO Vincent Liu added {that a} price lower could not essentially gasoline a rally. “A lower alerts financial weak point. Without stronger ETF inflows or liquidity enlargement, $120K stays a tricky barrier,” he defined.
ETF flows have certainly weakened. Bitcoin and Ethereum funds noticed lighter inflows in early September in comparison with report highs in July and August, signaling a cooling of institutional demand.
Key Levels and Catalysts Ahead
For now, $110,000 is the essential assist zone. Lucas believes that resistance at $113,400, $115,400, and $117,100, ranges that should be cleared for Bitcoin to retest the $120K mark.
On-chain alerts, equivalent to record-high stablecoin provide and declining trade balances, recommend potential firepower for a rally. Off-chain components, together with regulatory updates and ETF demand, may also form sentiment.
This week’s inflation reports (PPI and CPI) might show pivotal. Softer-than-expected information could strengthen the case for a number of price cuts this yr, whereas hotter readings might stall Bitcoin additional.
With Fed coverage, inflation traits, and ETF flows all in focus, Bitcoin faces a decisive second. Whether it smashes via resistance or stays caught under $120K will rely much less on the Fed alone and extra on whether or not contemporary liquidity enters the market.
Cover picture from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview
