FiscalNote Bets on Political Prediction Markets as New Frontier for Policy Intelligence

Political prediction markets captured mainstream consideration in the course of the 2024 election cycle, and the institutional curiosity that adopted hasn’t slowed down. FiscalNote, the publicly-traded coverage intelligence platform greatest recognized for its AI-driven legislative monitoring and regulatory information instruments, is the most recent to make a transfer, asserting plans to deliver its coverage information experience into the prediction markets house.

The firm unveiled a preview expertise at PoliticalPredictions.com, entered right into a strategic non-binding memorandum of understanding with prediction expertise accomplice 365Prediction, and named veteran market strategist Dr. Laila Mintas, founder and CEO of 365Prediction, as a strategic adviser. According to the information launch asserting the transfer, the initiative will leverage FiscalNote’s coverage experience, proprietary datasets and forecasting perception to assist customers anticipate and interact with outcomes related to politics and public coverage.

FiscalNote’s core enterprise facilities on offering legislative monitoring, regulatory monitoring and coverage analytics instruments to firms, commerce associations, legislation companies and advocacy organizations. Clients use its software program to watch payments, assess regulatory threat and anticipate political developments that would have an effect on their operations.

“Prediction markets are quickly rising as a robust new method to perceive, anticipate, and interact with outcomes throughout a variety of domains,” FiscalNote CEO Josh Resnik stated within the launch. “As public curiosity in politics and coverage selections accelerates, this class is poised to reshape how political perception is fashioned, shared, and acted upon, extending effectively past conventional audiences.”

Policy information meets prediction markets: FiscalNote’s institutional play

The announcement was adopted by a Feb. 18 investor-focused net presentation, the place executives and strategic advisers outlined a phased strategy to engagement with prediction markets, starting with insight-driven merchandise and experimental “fantasy league” instruments earlier than any direct operation of markets. Company management emphasised that regulatory developments will play a key position in shaping the timing of any deeper entry into prediction markets. 

Materials from the presentation have been formally disclosed in a Feb. 20 SEC Form 8-K, reflecting the corporate’s view that the initiative is related to traders.

By framing prediction markets as an extension of its current coverage intelligence enterprise fairly than a pivot away from its core choices, FiscalNote is providing one of many clearest examples thus far of prediction market information being positioned as a decision-support useful resource for institutional audiences.

“What it boils right down to is that the way in which folks eat, consider, and act on info is altering very quickly. And we view that shift as a possibility as a result of it’s opening up new markets and use instances for what we do greatest,” Resnik stated in the course of the presentation. “FiscalNote’s belongings are invaluable and differentiating sufficient that we’ve a significant position to play in rising alternatives like this. And we begin with a really sturdy basis.”

Resnik stated that increasing into political prediction markets is a pure extension of FiscalNote’s basis.

“In some ways, it’s an evolution of what we’ve been doing for years,” he stated. “We’ve been figuring out key political and coverage points, making use of our information and human experience to anticipate outcomes, and serving to our viewers perceive what these outcomes imply as soon as occasions unfold. Prediction markets characterize simply one other endpoint the place that very same mix of knowledge evaluation and experience may be invaluable and interesting.”

FiscalNote explores advocacy-backed market fashions

The most concrete product idea FiscalNote has put ahead isn’t a buying and selling platform, however fairly a mannequin that would redefine how advocacy organizations interact with prediction markets fully.

FiscalNote Chief Product Officer Can Babaoglu, who beforehand labored on AI-driven authorized expertise at Casetext, a authorized analysis software program firm later acquired by skilled information large Thomson Reuters, used the Feb. 18 presentation to stipulate how the corporate is approaching prediction markets. Rather than instantly launching a buying and selling platform, he stated the main focus is on credibility, accessibility and policy-focused use instances that construct on FiscalNote’s current information and intelligence enterprise.

One space the corporate is exploring entails advocacy organizations. Babaoglu stated some coverage professionals stay hesitant to take part in prediction markets as a result of they’re generally perceived as betting merchandise. FiscalNote is evaluating fashions the place advocacy teams might sponsor markets tied to coverage points, permitting individuals to commerce on outcomes whereas additionally doubtlessly supporting causes linked to these points. The idea builds on FiscalNote’s current relationships with advocacy teams and authorities affairs professionals who already use its coverage information instruments.

“We consider political prediction markets might be a instrument to boost consciousness and fundraise for advocacy organizations,” Babaoglu stated. “Take a problem like social media controls for minors — advocacy teams on each side, dad and mom’ organizations who need extra controls and on-line freedom teams, are already working to affect the result right here. We envision them sponsoring these associated markets, presenting their case as to why a selected final result is extra helpful to assist society, and individuals having the ability to not solely commerce, but in addition donate a portion of their commerce worth or their winnings to a corporation that they select.”

Political markets emerge as a significant development driver

FiscalNote’s enlargement additionally brings expertise in betting and prediction markets into the combination. Dr. Mintas spent greater than twenty years working in iGaming, sports activities information and prediction markets, together with senior roles at Sportradar and advisory work with international and regional soccer governing our bodies FIFA and CONCACAF. FiscalNote stated she is going to assist information market design, regulatory technique and go-to-market planning as the corporate develops its political prediction initiatives.

During the Feb. 18 presentation, Mintas emphasised that whereas sports activities occasion contracts typically dominate headlines, political prediction markets additionally characterize a significant share of general exercise.

“Prediction markets have seen explosive development over the past years, with international buying and selling quantity surging,” she stated, including that political markets, together with each election and non-election contracts, accounted for about $7.2 billion in buying and selling quantity in 2025. “We will see that quantity develop on this 12 months and the approaching years, for positive.”

Political contracts have a tendency to attract bigger quantities of capital although there are fewer particular person occasions, which may translate into stronger market liquidity, Mintas stated. She additionally famous how a lot the market has modified in recent times. Earlier prediction markets have been typically fragmented, closely crypto-focused and largely retail-driven. Today, she stated, the surroundings is extra structured, higher capitalized and attracting wider institutional curiosity. 

Fantasy-style codecs might come earlier than alternate

One query left open by FiscalNote’s announcement is whether or not the corporate finally intends to function its personal regulated, consumer-facing prediction market platform. While the preview expertise at PoliticalPredictions.com indicators curiosity in deeper market participation, executives indicated the near-term focus is on perception merchandise, partnerships and experimental engagement codecs fairly than launching a full occasion contract buying and selling venue.

Babaoglu stated one early space of experimentation entails fantasy sports-style experiences constructed round political outcomes. 

“The regulatory surroundings round ‘fantasy leagues’ is much more relaxed than prediction markets,” he stated, including that the corporate needs to discover these codecs as it develops its broader strategy.

There is not any public report of FiscalNote submitting an software with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that will enable the corporate to function a regulated occasion contract alternate within the U.S. Babaoglu stated prediction markets themselves would come later “primarily based on our learnings … as effectively as the regulatory course of.” The phased strategy signifies the corporate is shifting cautiously as it evaluates market demand and regulatory readability.

Note: FiscalNote didn’t instantly reply to a request for remark on its long-term prediction platform plans. This story might be up to date if the corporate supplies further particulars.

Prediction markets gaining institutional credibility

FiscalNote’s measured entry into the house comes as prediction market information is more and more being evaluated as a decision-support instrument. Recent Federal Reserve analysis has examined how market-based possibilities can complement conventional economic forecasting, whereas financial exchanges, data providers and institutional investors have begun experimenting with incorporating prediction market indicators into threat evaluation and coverage outlooks.

That shift suggests prediction markets are more and more being seen not simply as buying and selling venues, but in addition as sources of actionable info. Political occasion contracts specifically have begun drawing consideration from analysts in search of real-time indicators on coverage and macroeconomic developments that may be tough to seize via conventional polling or forecasting alone.

FiscalNote’s strategy matches squarely inside that rising use case. By positioning prediction market information as an extension of its coverage intelligence platform fairly than a standalone buying and selling product, the corporate is successfully testing whether or not these market forecasts can change into one other layer of institutional coverage evaluation.

Whether FiscalNote finally information with the CFTC and competes instantly with Kalshi and Polymarket, or carves out a knowledge and intelligence lane of its personal, the path of journey is evident: the institutional case for prediction markets as a coverage evaluation instrument is being made in board decks and SEC filings now, not simply on buying and selling dashboards. For a class that has spent years preventing for legitimacy, that will matter greater than any single platform launch.

The submit FiscalNote Bets on Political Prediction Markets as New Frontier for Policy Intelligence appeared first on DeFi Rate.