Forget “Moonvember” — Analysts Say Bitcoin Could Trade Sideways This Month
Bitcoin’s historic November rallies might not materialize this yr, as a number of indicators point out a chronic consolidation moderately than upward momentum.
The world’s largest crypto has spent two weeks trapped between $106,000 and $116,000, weighed down by persistent promoting from long-term holders and muted institutional demand following October’s sharp liquidation occasion.
Meanwhile, dramatic shifts in world funding markets are including complexity to the outlook.
The Secured Overnight Financing Rate plummeted to three.92% on November 6, its lowest stage in two years, a collapse that monetary analyst Shanaka Anslem warns “screams one phrase: panic.“
Persistent Distribution Weighs on Price Action
According to Bitfinex’s newest market analysis, Bitcoin briefly rallied to $116,500 on October 27 earlier than retracing over 8.9% to revisit vary lows.
The report reveals that long-term holders have accelerated distribution to 104,000 BTC per thirty days, the sharpest promoting wave since mid-July.
“Unless ETF inflows or new spot demand returns to soak up ongoing distribution, BTC is prone to stay range-bound, with a danger bias towards retesting the $106,000–$107,000 zone,” Bitfinex analysts wrote of their November 3 report.
The agency warned that “a sustained break beneath this stage may open the trail to $100,000 per BTC.“
Options markets additionally add to the mounting uncertainty, with implied volatility compressing steadily for the reason that October 10 liquidation occasion.
The Put/Call quantity ratio has oscillated between extremes as merchants alternate between chasing rallies and adopting defensive positions, indicating what Bitfinex described as “a broad lack of directional conviction.“
Fed Ends Balance Sheet Runoff Amid Liquidity Concerns
The Federal Reserve formally ended its steadiness sheet runoff and cut interest rates by 25 basis points to three.75-4% on October 29.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that “indicators have clearly emerged that now we have reached that customary in cash markets” concerning satisfactory reserve ranges.
Beginning December 1, the Fed will roll over all maturing Treasury securities whereas reinvesting the proceeds from mortgage-backed securities into Treasury payments, successfully restoring $25-35 billion in month-to-month liquidity.
Powell described the lower as “danger administration” amid weakening hiring and wages however careworn that future choices are “not on a pre-set course.“
Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer noted that “the Fed’s reverse repo facility (RRP) is now depleted and the Treasury’s money steadiness (TGA) has grown to $1 trillion.”
He described this as “a strong cache of ‘fiscal QE’ ready to be deployed.“
Deep Division Over December Rate Cut
Earlier right now, the Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos reported that Federal Reserve officers are “fractured over which poses the larger risk—persistent inflation or a sluggish labor market.”
Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid dissented in opposition to October’s lower, whereas Cleveland’s Beth Hammack and Dallas’s Lorie Logan publicly opposed additional reductions.
Powell acknowledged these divisions, stating, “individuals simply have completely different danger tolerances, in order that leads you to individuals with disparate views.”
Timiraos famous that Powell “pushed again so bluntly in opposition to expectations” of a December lower “to handle a committee riven by seemingly unbridgeable variations.“
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly made the dovish case, warning that the financial system dangers “dropping jobs and progress within the course of” of preventing inflation.
She argued that slowing wage progress signifies falling labor demand moderately than provide constraints.
Mixed Economic Signals Cloud Outlook
Bitfinex’s report detailed deteriorating labor circumstances, noting that year-over-year wage progress cooled from 4.7% in early 2023 to three.7% by August.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 94.6 in October from 95.6 in September.
Treasury yields have declined considerably since summer season, with 10-year notes dropping 51 foundation factors from 4.5% in June to 4% by late October.
Bitfinex analysts famous this “displays a mixture of shifting expectations, together with prospects of price cuts, softer financial progress, and rising safe-haven demand.“
Bitcoin stays caught between conflicting forces as conventional November energy clashes with 2025’s distinctive macroeconomic backdrop.
Without sustained institutional demand, analysts anticipate continued range-bound buying and selling by the top of the month.
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