Galaxy Research Cuts CLARITY Act Passage Odds to 50% as Senate Calendar Tightens

Galaxy Research lowered its odds of the CLARITY Act changing into legislation in 2026 to 50%. The newest reduce follows a discount to 60% on June 5, each blamed on a tightening Senate calendar.

The downgrade displays timing stress fairly than opposition to the invoice. Galaxy’s head of analysis, Alex Thorn, mentioned the measure nonetheless has no ground date regardless of reaching the Senate calendar.

A Tightening Senate Calendar

Thorn put the chances at 75% after the May markup, then 60% in early June. Each reduce tracked the shrinking variety of session days, not the invoice’s content material. Galaxy flagged the identical stress in an earlier odds cut.

The Senate left for a state work interval on June 29 and returns July 13. That leaves about 4 working weeks earlier than its longer recess from August 10 to September 11.

Must-pass gadgets crowd the identical window. The SAVE Act, the housing bill standoff, surveillance reauthorization, and the annual protection invoice all compete for ground time.

I’m once more lowering my odds of CLARITY act passage in 2026, largely due to the shortening calendar and rising competitors for ground time from different gadgets…,” Alex Thorn wrote in a submit.

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What the CLARITY Act Still Needs

The House handed the invoice 294-134 in July 2025, properly forward of the Senate. Chairman Tim Scott’s committee then superior it 15-9 during a bipartisan markup on May 14.

It cleared the committee with solely two Democratic votes. On the ground, it wants 60, that means a minimum of seven Democrats should cross over.

That math depends upon settling what the bill needs most. Ethics provisions and developer protections stay unresolved, and June 9 talks on the ethics language collapsed. More than 200 crypto companies urged Senate leaders in June to schedule a vote.

Prediction market merchants are even much less hopeful. Polymarket put 2026 passage round 44% this week, down from about 74% in May, when ethics worries first dented the odds.

The crypto market structure bill would cut up oversight between the SEC and CFTC. A slip previous July would prolong US regulatory uncertainty into the autumn.

Thorn nonetheless expects a attainable July vote, leaving the subsequent few weeks decisive.

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