Game of Prediction Thrones: Coinbase, Crypto.com, Gemini Join the Battle
Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency change in the United States, is getting ready to launch prediction markets and tokenized equities, whereas Gemini has secured regulatory approval.
Kalshi and Crypto.com have fashioned an trade coalition. Changpeng Zhao is concentrating on 220 million customers via BNB Chain. The conflict amongst giants for the throne of the $15 billion prediction market has formally begun.
Coinbase Reveals Key Card in “Everything App” Strategy
Coinbase reportedly plans to officially announce prediction markets and tokenized fairness companies at a showcase on December 17. The tokenized shares might be launched in-house, not via companions.
Coinbase executives have beforehand expressed curiosity in coming into these companies however had not made official bulletins. However, expectations have been constructing as screenshots hinting at related functionality have circulated on social community X in latest weeks. A Coinbase spokesperson declined to touch upon particular plans, stating solely: “Tune in to the livestream on Dec. 17 to search out out what new merchandise Coinbase is delivery.”
This transfer is a component of Coinbase’s ongoing “everything app” technique, designed to supply merchants with entry to a broad vary of property and markets whereas retaining tempo with rivals who’re diversifying their choices. Robinhood launched Kalshi’s prediction market merchandise earlier this 12 months, and each Robinhood and Kraken supply tokenized US shares and ETFs outdoors the United States.
Trading in tokenized equities is rising quickly. According to rwa.xyz, month-to-month switch quantity elevated 32% over the final 30 days to $1.45 billion.
Industry Coalition CPM Launches: “A Unified Voice Is Necessary”
On the identical day, Kalshi and Crypto.com announced the launch of the Coalition for Prediction Markets (CPM), a nationwide alliance of prediction market operators. Coinbase, Robinhood, and sports activities gaming platform Underdog joined as founding members.
Matt David, government board member of CPM, emphasised: “The US is the greatest frontier for prediction markets, and the momentum we’re seeing makes a unified trade voice not simply vital, however crucial.”
The coalition will give attention to strengthening the federal framework for prediction markets, establishing nationwide integrity requirements to curb insider buying and selling, and pushing again towards state-level regulatory overreach.
Sara Slane, head of company improvement at Kalshi and an government member of the coalition, acknowledged: “We spent years working with the CFTC as a result of prediction markets should function with robust federal safeguards that forestall insider buying and selling, shield shoppers, and guarantee these markets stay clear and corruption-free.” The coalition stated extra firms are in talks to hitch.
Gemini Secures CFTC Approval, Shares Surge 28%
Winklevoss twins-founded change, Gemini, has additionally entered the prediction market battlefield. Gemini Space Station Inc. received approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for a derivatives change.
The approval permits Gemini to supply occasion contract buying and selling companies to present US clients via its web site and cellular app. In regulatory filings associated to its IPO, Gemini had included prediction markets on “financial, monetary, political, and sports activities forecasts” amongst its checklist of merchandise of curiosity.
Gemini acknowledged it “will discover increasing its derivatives providing for US clients to incorporate crypto futures, choices, and perpetual contracts.” Following the approval announcement, Gemini shares surged as a lot as 28% in prolonged buying and selling.
The approval is amongst the newest company actions underneath Acting Chairman Caroline Pham, who has positioned herself as a champion of the digital property trade and has taken quite a few steps to advance crypto buying and selling on CFTC-regulated platforms. Pham additionally introduced that Tyler Winklevoss would take part in the company’s CEO Innovation Council, which can embrace Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan, CME Group Chairman and CEO Terry Duffy, and Kalshi co-founder Tarek Mansour.
CZ Marches to the Center Stage of Prediction Markets
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) can be expanding his prediction market territory. On December 4, CZ posted on X a couple of new prediction market launching on BNB Chain. A key function of the platform is that consumer funds generate yield whereas awaiting outcomes. The platform is backed by YZiLabs (previously Binance Labs), which manages over $10 billion in property and has invested in additional than 300 initiatives globally.
One day earlier, Trust Wallet, owned by CZ, launched its Predictions function. Web3 prediction market protocol Myriad joined as the first integration accomplice, enabling customers to guess on politics, sports activities, and market tendencies inside the app. Trust Wallet’s consumer base stands at 220 million.
BNB Chain accomplished its integration with Polymarket in October, and Opinion Labs, a prediction market supplier backed by YZiLabs, launched its mainnet. Opinion Labs secured a multi-million greenback funding at Binance Blockchain Week. They accomplished a $5 million seed funding spherical in Q1 2025, led by YZiLabs with participation from Animoca Ventures and Amber Group.
Trump Media Enters the Fray with Truth Predict
Trump Media & Technology Group, the social media firm of former President Donald Trump, can be leaping into the prediction market enterprise. The firm plans to launch “Truth Predict” on its Truth Social community, permitting customers to guess on occasions starting from political elections to adjustments in the inflation price.
Truth Predict will use Crypto.com Derivatives North America to course of bets and can supply wagers on commodity costs and occasions throughout all main sports activities leagues. Initial testing will start “in the close to future,” adopted by a full US launch and eventual world growth.
Devin Nunes, CEO of Trump Media and a former Republican congressman, acknowledged: “For too lengthy, world elites have intently managed these markets. With Truth Predict, we’re democratizing data and empowering on a regular basis Americans to harness the knowledge of the crowd.”
The Race for the $15 Billion Throne
Prediction markets have exploded since a federal court docket dismissed the prohibition on election betting final 12 months. Weekly notional buying and selling quantity on Polymarket and Kalshi has surpassed the peak set throughout final 12 months’s US presidential election, reaching new data.
Investor curiosity is hovering. Kalshi’s valuation has greater than doubled following its latest funding spherical, reaching $11 billion. Polymarket is reportedly in search of to boost funds at a valuation of as much as $15 billion.
Traditional monetary exchanges, together with CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange, are additionally exploring methods to enter this market. Monthly switch quantity for tokenized equities elevated 32% over the final 30 days to $1.45 billion.
However, regulatory uncertainty stays a problem. Kalshi filed a lawsuit in October towards New York’s gaming fee, alleging that the state company is overstepping its authority by making an attempt to control sports activities betting operations that fall solely underneath federal jurisdiction. Sports betting stays unlawful in practically a dozen US states, and lawsuits over the legality of prediction markets are mounting.
Coinbase, Gemini, CZ’s BNB Chain, and the newly fashioned trade coalition — the recreation of giants for the $15 billion throne has solely simply begun.
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