Gemini Adds Sports Markets To Crypto App But Liquidity Lags

Better late than by no means? Gemini Predictions, the prediction market-arm of the Gemini crypto platform, introduced on Jan. 8 that it was providing sports activities occasion contracts for the College Football Playoff semifinals and the NFL’s Wild Card weekend, coming into the world of sports activities betting simply because the soccer season begins its ultimate stretch.

To be honest, Gemini solely simply launched its prediction trade to U.S. prospects final month. Gemini Predictions went live on Dec. 15, after the Winklevoss twins’ crypto-exchange platform (and its affiliate, Gemini Titan) obtained a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license from the U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

“Gemini Predictions™ provides occasion contracts which can be easy sure or no questions on future occasions. For instance, ‘Will one bitcoin finish this yr increased than $200k?’ Yes or no. Or, ‘Will Elon Musk’s X find yourself paying the total $140 million fantastic to the European Commission in 2026?” Yes or no,’” learn the press launch. “The transfer marks Gemini’s newest step in constructing our one-stop tremendous app the place prospects can commerce crypto, stake, earn crypto bank card rewards, stablecoin rewards, and extra.”

First impressions of Gemini sports activities markets

Gemini’s most important identification has at all times been as a crypto trade. That central objective is mirrored within the platform’s preliminary scant slate of prediction markets and non-prominent positioning throughout the app.

A month after launching, Gemini Predictions has simply 30 lively prediction markets, half of that are sports activities associated. There are a handful of NBA markets, upcoming soccer video games, and markets based mostly on the end-of-the-season NFL awards (Coach of the Year, MVP, Offensive rookie of the yr, and many others.). 

Pricing on their markets to this point isn’t its sturdy swimsuit, and nothing that might set Gemini aside from its rivals. However, since Gemini marketed at launch that “prospects will have the ability to commerce fee-free for a restricted time,” the attraction of buying and selling with out charges may lure some prospects from extra established platforms.

Odds & pricing at Gemini vs. different exchanges

So, how does Gemini stack up towards Kalshi and Polymarket by way of pricing and odds? Taking the 2026 Super Bowl Odds for instance, Gemini’s pricing seems typically worse for patrons although some markets could also be roughly the identical.

While Gemini’s Super Bowl odds typically comply with the identical order or sample of favorites as you’ll discover on the opposite exchanges, the unfold of costs is considerably wider. For instance, if you happen to wished to purchase Yes shares on the favourite, Seattle Seahawks, you would possibly encounter pricing anyplace between 22¢ and 27¢. This is usually as a result of a lot decrease quantity and liquidity on Gemini versus at Kalshi and Polymarket. With a lot much less buying and selling exercise on Gemini’s particular person markets, the pricing shouldn’t be as tight.

At time of writing, 100 shares of Seahawks to win all of it on Gemini price $27 (to win $100) and on Kalshi, the identical 100 contracts prices $26.32 (25¢ per share plus $1.32 in charges) to win the identical $100.

In this specific instance, Gemini’s inefficient pricing prices you an additional 2.6%. While it might not seem to be a lot, it could possibly be very expensive at scale, or in conditions the place the pricing is even worse once you go to commerce. And that is with out charges.

Because Gemini began late within the sport, market volume and liquidity is much behind its prime rivals. Kalshi’s Super Bowl market has already crossed the $100M quantity mark, whereas Polymarket’s is over $669M. With the Big Game happening Feb. 8, these markets will develop considerably over the following month. That is also the case for Gemini, if the platform can overcome preliminary boundaries to liquidity.

Final verdict: Shop round

Gemini Predictions is lower than a month previous, so it could be unfair to guage the platform too harshly, particularly in comparison with market leaders Kalshi and Polymarket. With that mentioned, it does seem to be Gemini Predictions is the facet dish to Gemini’s most important course of crypto buying and selling. 

The most important message for potential merchants, together with current Gemini prospects, is to buy round for the very best costs if you wish to critically dabble in prediction markets.

Perhaps a yr from now, when it’s time for Super Bowl 2027, Gemini might be standing shoulder-to-shoulder with Kalshi and Polymarket, however at this level? They appear content material to take a seat on the bench.

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