Gemini Crypto Exchange Launches Prediction Markets
Less than every week after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission granted Gemini Space Station Inc. a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license, the cryptocurrency trade added prediction markets to its platform.
Gemini Predictions is now accessible through the corporate’s affiliated entity Gemini Titan. According to the Dec. 15 announcement, the platform will provide “occasion contracts which are easy sure or no questions on future occasions.” Such examples supplied included “Will one Bitcoin finish this 12 months increased than $200k?” or “Will Elon Musk’s X find yourself paying the total $140 million superb to the European Commission in 2026?”
“Gemini Predictions leverages the knowledge of the group and the ability of markets to extra precisely forecast the longer term,” learn the announcement. “They reward market contributors for his or her truthful insights and likewise assist them to raised put together for the longer term by aggregating and disseminating appropriate info.”
Gemini predictions launch particulars
The preliminary slate of markets is the same old kind: Would the Federal Reserve preserve the not too long ago decreased rate of interest; what would the value of Ethereum be by the top of the 12 months; and whether or not President Donald Trump would launch any of the Jeffrey Epstein recordsdata earlier than December 20.
Gemini clients within the United States can now commerce occasions utilizing USD of their Gemini Exchange account. The prediction app is accessible on the net, iOS, and Android. Customers may commerce fee-free for a restricted time as a part of the launch promotion.
The Winklevoss twins—Cameron and Tyler—based the Gemini crypto trade in 2014. Gemini first utilized for a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license in 2020, according to The Block. At the time, the applying didn’t make it clear if Gemini was seeking to launch a predictions market app.
Regulatory tides shifting in favor of prediction market exchanges
In latest historical past, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has been cautious and conservative in its dealings with prediction market exchanges. They banned Polymarket from working within the US in 2022 alleging they had been providing contracts to US clients with out correct CFTC approval. The fee additionally fought in opposition to Kalshi’s providing of congressional management contracts, finally dropping its enchantment within the matter in May 2025.
Gemini was additionally the goal of CFTC fees again in 2022 alleging that the corporate made false or deceptive statements about its Bitcoin futures contract in 2017 to assist launch it. That dispute resulted in a settlement whereby Gemini Trust paid a $5 million civil financial penalty.
Under the second Trump administration, the CFTC has softened its stance. President Trump has positioned his administration as an ally to crypto and prediction markets. Gemini CEO Tyler Winklevoss praised Trump after they gained their DCM license.
“Today’s approval marks the fruits of a 5-year licensing course of and the start of a brand new chapter for Gemini,” stated Tyler Winklevoss, per Coin Desk, earlier than thanking the president for “ending the Biden Administration’s War on Crypto.”
“Prediction markets have the potential to be as massive or greater than conventional capital markets. Acting Chairman Pham understands this imaginative and prescient and its significance,” stated Gemini President Cameron Winklevoss. ”Unlike her predecessor, Acting Chairman [Caroline] Pham has positioned the CFTC as a pro-business, pro-innovation regulator that can permit America to steer in these new and thrilling markets.”
Gemini Titan now dives into the pool of CFTC-regulated venues legally allowed to supply occasion contracts, a market that CoinDesk notes up to now has been “dominated by Kalshi.”
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