Glassnode: Bitcoin Is Back At $96K, Hitting The Same Sell Ceiling Again
Bitcoin’s early-2026 bounce has pushed again into a well-known drawback space: a dense pocket of overhead provide that Glassnode says has repeatedly capped rallies since November. In its newest Week On-chain report, the analytics agency frames the transfer above $96,000 as constructive on the floor, however nonetheless largely depending on derivatives positioning and liquidity circumstances reasonably than persistent spot accumulation.
Glassnode’s central argument is that Bitcoin has rallied straight right into a traditionally vital band of long-term holder (LTH) price foundation, constructed throughout April to July 2025 and related to sustained distribution close to cycle highs. The report describes a “dense cluster” spanning roughly $93K to $110K, with rebounds since November repeatedly stalling close to the decrease boundary.
“This area has persistently acted as a transition barrier, separating corrective phases from sturdy bull regimes,” Glassnode wrote. “With worth as soon as once more urgent into this overhead provide, the market now faces a well-known check of resilience, the place absorbing long-term holder distribution remains a prerequisite for any broader pattern reversal.” The agency’s framing is blunt: the market is again on the identical promote ceiling, and clearing it requires actual absorption, not simply worth probing.
The subsequent degree the report highlights is the short-term holder (STH) price foundation at $98.3K, which it treats as a confidence gauge for newer consumers. Sustained buying and selling above it might point out that latest demand is robust sufficient to maintain late entrants in revenue whereas absorbing overhead provide.
On-chain, Glassnode notes long-term holders stay internet sellers, with complete LTH provide nonetheless trending decrease. The key change is velocity. The report says the speed of decline has “slowed materially” versus the aggressive distribution seen in Q3 and This fall 2025, suggesting profit-taking is constant however with much less depth.
“What follows will rely totally on the demand aspect’s capability to soak up this provide, significantly from buyers amassed over Q2 2025,” the report mentioned. “Failure to carry above the True Market Mean at ~$81k, in the long run, would considerably improve the danger of a deeper capitulation section, harking back to the April 2022 to April 2023 interval.” It is likely one of the clearest draw back conditionals within the word: if the market loses the long-run imply, the likelihood distribution shifts towards a extra extreme unwind.
A associated sign is the Net Realized Profit and Loss of Long-Term Holders, which Glassnode says displays a “markedly cooler distribution regime.” Long-term holders are realizing roughly 12.8K BTC per week in internet revenue, a pointy slowdown from cycle peaks above 100K BTC per week. That moderation doesn’t indicate capitulation danger is gone, however it does counsel the heaviest section of profit-taking has eased.
Bitcoin Demand Remains Uneven
Off-chain indicators lean extra constructive. Glassnode argues institutional balance-sheet flows have “gone by way of a full reset” after months of heavy outflows across spot ETFs, corporates, and sovereign entities, with internet flows stabilizing as sell-side stress seems exhausted. Spot ETFs are described as the primary cohort to show optimistic once more, re-establishing themselves as the first marginal purchaser.
Corporate and sovereign treasury flows, against this, are portrayed as sporadic and event-driven reasonably than constant. The upshot is a market the place balance-sheet demand can assist stabilize worth, however could not but operate as a sustained progress engine, leaving short-term route extra delicate to derivatives positioning and liquidity circumstances.
At the venue degree, Glassnode factors to bettering spot habits. Binance and combination trade circulation measures have shifted again into buy-dominant regimes, and Coinbase, described as a constant supply of sell-side aggression throughout the consolidation, has “meaningfully slowed its promoting exercise.” The report calls this a constructive structural shift, whereas stressing it nonetheless falls wanting the persistent, aggressive accumulation sometimes related to full pattern expansions.
The most pointed warning within the report is that the transfer into the $96K area was “mechanically bolstered” by brief liquidations in a comparatively skinny liquidity surroundings. Futures turnover stays nicely under the elevated exercise seen throughout most of 2025, implying it took comparatively little capital to drive shorts out and push worth by way of resistance.
“This signifies that the breakout occurred in a relatively mild liquidity surroundings, the place modest positioning shifts have been capable of drive disproportionately massive worth responses,” Glassnode mentioned. “In sensible phrases, it didn’t take vital new capital to drive shorts out of the market and carry worth by way of resistance.” The implication is that continuation now is determined by whether or not spot demand and sustained quantity can change pressured overlaying as soon as the squeeze impulse fades.
Options markets add a second layer of pressure. Glassnode describes implied volatility as low however “deferred,” whereas skew continues to cost draw back asymmetry, with 25-delta skew biased towards places in mid and longer maturities. In brief: individuals seem snug holding publicity, however stay unwilling to take action with out insurance coverage.
Positioning additionally issues on the microstructure degree. The report flags sellers as brief gamma round spot, with a zone roughly from $94K to $104K. In that setup, hedging flows can amplify strikes reasonably than dampen them, shopping for into rallies and promoting into dips, elevating the percentages of sooner journey towards high-interest strikes similar to $100K if momentum takes maintain.
At press time, BTC traded at $96,334.