Groundhog Day for Bitcoin means six more weeks of macro winter if core flows stay deep red
Groundhog Day for Bitcoin: six more weeks of macro winter?
Bitcoin bought its personal Groundhog Day second at present as Punxsutawney Phil “noticed his shadow” on the a hundred and fortieth Anniversary of the celebration and signaled six more weeks of winter, simply after BTC slid to $74,000 in a pointy risk-off transfer.
The coincidence was becoming: a cocktail of compelled liquidations, ETF outflows, and rising actual yields advised crypto may very well be going through an prolonged stretch of macro chill and elevated volatility heading into the March FOMC.
As of press time, Bitcoin has rebounded barely to round $77,500 as a selloff in cross-asset threat met crypto’s 24/7 market construction.
Total crypto liquidations broke above $2 billion over the weekend, with over $800 million within the final 24 hours alone.
The sturdy takeaway for the subsequent a number of weeks is that Bitcoin continues to behave like levered threat publicity when the {discount} price and the greenback reprice shortly.
The episode is one other stress check for the “digital gold” narrative. That is particularly true when gold holds up higher throughout risk-off stretches, and Bitcoin trades more in keeping with long-duration threat.
ETF flows and liquidation dynamics
Flows have been the clear, every day read-through on marginal demand.
Farside Investors’ ETF totals present repeated giant web outflows into late January, together with a number of classes that eliminated a whole bunch of hundreds of thousands of {dollars} of spot demand in a single day.
That issues as a result of when ETFs are redeeming, dips would not have the identical mechanical bid. Any liquidation cascade can even journey additional in thinner order books.
| Date (2026) | US spot BTC ETF complete web stream (US$m) |
|---|---|
| Jan. 16 | -394.7 |
| Jan. 21 | -708.7 |
| Jan. 29 | -817.8 |
| Jan. 30 | -509.7 |
Macro anchors have been additionally transferring in opposition to duration-sensitive belongings into that window.
Trading Economics put the U.S. 10-year nominal yield round 4.24–4.26% on the Jan. 30 shut. StreetStats confirmed the 10-year TIPS actual yield round 1.93% on the identical reference level.
In observe, that real-yield degree tends to lift the hurdle price for belongings priced on future adoption or liquidity situations. It additionally tightens the vary for speculative leverage to persist with out periodic resets.
| Macro reference (Jan. 30 shut) | Level |
|---|---|
| U.S. 10-year nominal yield | ~4.24–4.26% |
| U.S. 10-year actual yield (TIPS) | ~1.93% |
Policy-regime uncertainty has been half of the repricing narrative.
Headlines round Kevin Warsh and Federal Reserve management, feed into a better threat premium throughout markets tied to perceptions of Fed independence and the inflation path.
Crypto tends to specific that uncertainty with more power as a result of leverage is simpler to use. Liquidity additionally thins outdoors U.S. hours, and liquidations are computerized as soon as collateral thresholds are hit.
That is why liquidations needs to be handled because the transmission mechanism relatively than the basis trigger.
Macro repricing units the course. Price then falls into thinner liquidity, liquidations add provide, and the transfer extends.
What to observe into the March FOMC
For the “six more weeks” framing, essentially the most actionable guidelines is whether or not the marginal bid returns earlier than the subsequent main coverage waypoint.
In a 2- to 6-week window:
- Sustained ETF inflows can be the clearest mechanical shift. That means not a single inexperienced day, however a run that offsets the late-January tempo of redemptions.
- Whether actual yields drift decrease from the ~2% space, which would scale back discount-rate strain on threat belongings.
- Whether implied volatility mean-reverts after the flush. Deribit’s DVOL index moved from roughly 37 to above 44 in the course of the selloff week. A DVOL degree a bit above 44 maps to an approximate 30-day anticipated transfer close to ±13% utilizing a typical rule of thumb (annualized volatility divided by the sq. root of 12).
That leaves room for an extra two-way value journey even if headlines cool. Two paths comply with from the identical set of gauges.
- If ETF totals stay web adverse throughout a number of classes and actual yields stay close to current ranges, Bitcoin can maintain buying and selling as levered threat beta into March. Rallies may very well be capped by redemption-led provide and lingering hedging demand in choices.
- If ETF flows stabilize and macro stops tightening on the margin, the post-liquidation reset can scale back forced-selling threat. That would enable spot demand to set the tape once more relatively than cascades setting the tempo.
The calendar offers a clear endpoint for the Groundhog Day metaphor. The subsequent Federal Open Market Committee assembly is scheduled for March 17–18, 2026.
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