HBAR Price Breakdown Was Expected — The Bear Trap Risk Was Not
HBAR is down virtually 11% prior to now week, and yesterday it lastly broke under its neckline, finishing the top and shoulders sample we projected on November 13. Despite the breakdown, the final 24 hours have been surprisingly flat.
And whereas the construction nonetheless factors towards decrease ranges, early indicators counsel that merchants betting on deeper draw back could also be strolling right into a bear entice as an alternative. Here is why.
Selling Rises and Shorts Pile Up — But The Setup Isn’t That Simple
HBAR’s spot flows present a pointy shift in behaviour after the breakdown. On November 14, HBAR recorded –4.03 million in internet outflows, that means extra tokens had been leaving exchanges as patrons amassed.
Today, after the pattern breakdown confirmed, flows flipped to +420,790 HBAR.
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That is a 110% swing from unfavourable to constructive netflow — a transparent signal that sellers have stepped in aggressively after the sample break.
The derivatives market exhibits a fair stronger tilt. On Bitget’s liquidation map alone, brief publicity is $16.71 million, whereas lengthy publicity is $6.09 million. This means shorts now management 73% of all leveraged positions — about 2.7 instances greater than longs.
This type of crowded positioning usually fuels the circumstances for a bear entice danger, the place worth briefly reverses upward and forces shorts to shut their positions at a loss.
The HBAR price breakdown has occurred, sure — however this positioning makes it harmful to imagine the transfer will proceed uninterrupted.
One Move Could Drive HBAR Price Rebound, Hitting Short Liquidations
The worth chart accommodates the important thing purpose a bear entice is feasible. While HBAR broke below the neckline, the follow-through has been weak. At the identical time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) — a metric that measures worth momentum to point out if an asset is oversold or overbought — is displaying a notable sample.
Between October 17 and November 14, the value made a decrease low, whereas RSI shaped the next low. This is a bullish RSI divergence, and it usually seems simply earlier than a short-term reversal try.
If the divergence performs out, the primary set off is a transfer again above $0.160, which is strictly the place the neckline sits. Reclaiming this stage places a big block of brief positions in danger.
The liquidation map exhibits that shorts start getting squeezed as the value rises above this zone.
A push above $0.180 would affirm the entice is absolutely in place and power even deeper brief liquidations, giving HBAR room for a stronger rebound. However, the entice solely works if patrons maintain key help ranges.
If HBAR drops under $0.155, the divergence weakens and the downtrend regains management. In that case, the top and shoulders projection stays legitimate, opening the way in which towards the sooner bearish goal close to $0.113.
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