Hedera Eyes 31% Upside as ETF Inflows Surge to 2026 High— One Level Blocks The Way
Hedera is quietly organising for a transfer that merchants have been ready months to see. After repeated failed bounces, the HBAR worth motion, ETF demand, and spot flows are lastly beginning to align. What makes this second completely different isn’t just the chart sample, however the timing.
The similar degree that killed earlier rallies is again in focus. This time, it’s being examined alongside the strongest ETF demand Hedera has seen in 2026.
Hedera Forms a W Base as EMA Resistance Returns
Hedera is forming a transparent W sample, additionally recognized as a double backside, on the every day chart. This construction seems when worth exams the identical assist twice and holds, signaling that sellers are shedding momentum. In Hedera’s case, the $0.102 degree has now acted as a ground on a number of events, drawing in patrons every time the worth revisits it.
From that base, worth has tried to rotate greater towards the $0.135 space, which acts as the neckline of the W sample. If that neckline breaks, the construction tasks a possible 31% transfer, inserting upside targets close to the $0.176 zone.
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But that is the place previous rallies failed.
Each rebound earlier this 12 months stalled as a result of Hedera couldn’t reclaim its key exponential shifting averages (EMAs). An EMA locations extra weight on latest worth motion and helps merchants determine whether or not a transfer is corrective or trend-changing. In early January, Hedera reclaimed the 20-day EMA, triggering quick rallies of roughly 8% to 16%. Those strikes pale rapidly as a result of the worth couldn’t maintain above the 50-day EMA.
That similar barrier now sits instantly within the path of the W sample neckline. This means the construction and the shifting averages are converging on the similar level. A break above $0.135 wouldn’t simply full the W sample. It would additionally mark the primary clear reclaim of the 50-day EMA in weeks.
That is why this setup issues greater than earlier makes an attempt. And additionally it is why demand beneath the floor now turns into crucial.
ETF and Spot Demand Are Rising Together as Supply Tightens
Hedera just posted its strongest ETF influx week of 2026. For the week ending January 16, internet inflows reached roughly $1.46 million, the very best weekly complete this 12 months. That issues as a result of ETF demand represents slower, steadier capital that tends to take in provide throughout consolidation phases somewhat than chase breakouts.
This ETF power is now being mirrored within the spot market.
Between January 18 and January 19, Hedera’s internet spot outflows elevated from roughly $882,000 to $2.22 million. That is a soar of greater than 150% in a single day, signaling that patrons are pulling tokens off exchanges somewhat than making ready to promote them.
The alignment between ETF inflows and spot outflows is essential. This time, demand is showing earlier than the breakout, not after it.
The subsequent knowledge level shall be decisive. The present ETF week closes on January 23. If inflows stay constructive into the top of the week, it could verify that institutional-style demand remains to be constructing. If flows stall, it could counsel patrons are nonetheless cautious.
That uncertainty makes the following HBAR worth response particularly essential.
One HBAR Price Level Decides the Breakout
Momentum indicators are quietly supporting the bullish case. Between December 31 and January 19, Hedera’s price is testing a decrease low formation whereas the Relative Strength Index is shut to printing a better low. RSI measures the power of latest features versus losses, and this divergence often alerts that promoting strain is weakening.
The bullish divergence sign stays conditional.
As lengthy as the present Hedera candle holds above $0.102, the divergence stays legitimate and helps the thought of a better transfer. A sustained break under $0.102 would invalidate each the divergence for now and the W sample, reopening draw back threat.
If worth strikes greater, the important thing check shouldn’t be the bounce itself, however how far it goes. Reclaiming the $0.118 space would mark a restoration of the 20-day EMA, one thing Hedera has already managed earlier than. The actual shift solely occurs above $0.127, the place the 50-day EMA sits. Clearing that degree would flip earlier resistance into assist and open the door for a transfer towards $0.135, adopted by the projected $0.152 and $0.176 zones.
Hedera has spent weeks constructing a base whereas demand slowly improves. The chart is prepared. The flows are bettering. Now the whole lot comes down to one degree that has stopped each rally up to now — the 50-Day EMA line.
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