Historic Bitcoin Crossovers Flash Warning Signals Again
Bitcoin (BTC) is buying and selling close to $89,200 at press time, posting a 1% rise over the previous 24 hours. Still, one technical sample is elevating considerations. A crossover between two key weekly shifting averages has taken place, one thing that has typically marked the beginning of weaker worth durations previously.
Moving Average Crossover Returns
The 21-week exponential shifting common (EMA) has crossed beneath the 50-week EMA, in accordance with a chart shared by analyst Rekt Capital. This sample has appeared throughout earlier market cycles. In each 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin adopted an identical construction, and it plunged quickly after.
The identical crossover is now taking place once more in early 2026. Though BTC stays above $89,000, this setup has not been favorable in previous cycles. It typically marked a shift to slower development or deeper corrections. Traders are actually watching to see if historical past repeats or if the market behaves otherwise this time.
Meanwhile, on January 27, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded greater than $147 million in internet outflows (per SoSoValues’s information). This shift might mirror decreased curiosity or profit-taking amongst bigger holders. ETF outflows have typically matched durations of promoting stress or decrease buying and selling momentum.
Analysts are monitoring the $70,000–$75,000 vary as a possible help zone if the present worth fails to carry. Moreover, veteran dealer Peter Brandt lately suggested that Bitcoin might fall towards $58,000 to $62,000 if the construction breaks decrease.
Macro Events May Add Pressure
Two main occasions are set for January 28 that may influence crypto markets. US crude oil stock information and the Federal Reserve’s rate of interest determination are anticipated on the identical day.
Historically, Bitcoin has proven weak point round Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) conferences. Data from 2025 reveals that after seven of the eight FOMC conferences, BTC skilled worth drops. One of the biggest was a 29% fall after the October 29 announcement. Chartist Ali Martinez wrote,
“HOW BITCOIN $BTC WILL REACT TO FOMC MEETING, LAST TIME IT DROPPED BY -9%.”
Supply in Loss Begins to Climb
According to analyst Woominkyu from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s Supply in Loss (%) is trending upward once more. In previous cycles, this was one of many early indicators of an extended bearish development.
The metric stays beneath ranges seen throughout full capitulation, however the route of change could also be value watching. Similar shifts had been recorded in 2014, 2018, and 2022 earlier than the market reached a low level.
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