House Democrats Seek Prediction Market Records Amid Suspicious Iran War, Oil Trades

Rep. Chris Pappas is asking House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer to subpoena inside data from on-line prediction market platforms, escalating congressional scrutiny over suspiciously timed trades tied to army motion, Iran struggle developments and international coverage selections.

The request comes as lawmakers level to alleged prediction market income from nonpublic national-security data, whereas federal investigators are additionally probing suspicious oil futures trades positioned earlier than Iran-related bulletins. Together, the allegations counsel Congress and federal investigators are actually trying throughout each prediction markets and conventional commodities markets for indicators that merchants used advance data of presidency selections to revenue.

In a letter to Comer, Pappas and 6 different House Democrats requested the committee to “open an investigation into obvious corruption and insider buying and selling occurring in on-line prediction markets.” The lawmakers mentioned public buying and selling information can present suspicious exercise, however platform data are doubtless essential to determine the individuals behind the trades.

“The American public has a professional curiosity in understanding whether or not people entrusted with categorised nationwide safety data have used that entry for private monetary acquire,” the lawmakers wrote. “A committee investigation, enforced with subpoenas, will embody inside data, that are the one means by which the people who carried out these trades could be recognized and the query of whether or not these platforms are upholding their duties could be answered.”

The letter was signed by Pappas, House Oversight Committee member Rashida Tlaib, Sara Jacobs, Dina Titus, Seth Magaziner, Maggie Goodlander and Seth Moulton. It says lawmakers are “deeply involved” that individuals with entry to delicate authorities data used that entry for private monetary acquire, and asks Oversight to analyze who positioned the trades, whether or not any legal guidelines had been damaged and whether or not prediction market platforms are doing sufficient to stop insider buying and selling round nationwide safety occasions.

The request extends a rising congressional focus on prediction markets this 12 months. Lawmakers have launched a series of bills concentrating on every part from insider buying and selling by public officers to sports activities occasion contracts, whereas separate congressional letters have pressed regulators, committee leaders and business executives over offshore markets, Iran-linked buying and selling and the social harms tied to on-line wagering.

Suspicious Iran and different military-related trades drive subpoena request

Pappas’ letter lays out a number of examples that lawmakers say level to potential misuse of delicate data round Iran-related army and diplomatic occasions.

One account allegedly earned practically $1 million whereas accurately forecasting unannounced U.S. and Israeli army actions towards Iran, in accordance with the letter. Lawmakers mentioned the dealer had a 93% success charge and entered positions shortly earlier than strikes in October 2024, June 2025 and February 2026.

The letter additionally describes 38 accounts that allegedly made greater than $2 million from Feb. 28 strikes after the accounts had been funded the earlier week. In one other instance, lawmakers mentioned no less than 50 new accounts took related positions on an April 7 U.S./Iran ceasefire, with some accounts created minutes earlier than the ceasefire was introduced.

Those examples are supposed to present the bounds of public market information. Trading pages can reveal when positions had been opened and the way a lot cash was made, however lawmakers say platform-level data is required to attach these accounts to actual individuals.

Lawmakers additionally pointed to current prison circumstances involving prediction markets and national-security data. Israeli authorities have charged two individuals, together with a army reservist, for allegedly using classified information to put Iran-related bets on the Polymarket world platform. 

The letter additionally references Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a U.S. Army Special Forces soldier charged by federal prosecutors in Manhattan with utilizing categorised data to revenue from Polymarket bets tied to a U.S. army operation involving Venezuelan chief Nicolás Maduro. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed a parallel civil complaint towards Van Dyke.

Pappas and the opposite lawmakers additionally increase access-control questions round Polymarket’s worldwide platform, the place a lot of the exercise reportedly occurred. U.S. customers are barred from accessing that web site underneath Polymarket’s 2022 settlement with the CFTC, some extent that overlaps with a separate letter lawmakers sent last month urging the company to act towards offshore prediction markets providing contracts tied to struggle, army operations and different nationwide safety occasions. That letter argued offshore platforms shouldn’t be capable of sidestep U.S. derivatives regulation when their markets are tied to U.S. authorities actions.

The letter concludes by saying that Congress “has each the authority and the accountability to find out whether or not current ethics, classification, and monetary disclosure legal guidelines have been violated, and whether or not legislative motion is critical to stop recurrence.” The lawmakers say they can’t fulfill that accountability with out understanding who positioned the trades in query, and requested a response outlining Oversight’s method by May 22.

DOJ probes oil trades tied to Iran struggle information

The lawmakers’ request for subpoenas comes as federal investigators are analyzing suspiciously timed trades in conventional oil markets tied to Iran struggle developments.

NBC News reported last week the Justice Department is probing a sequence of oil-market trades positioned earlier than main Iran-related bulletins, together with whether or not merchants had advance data of coverage selections that moved crude costs. NBC additionally reported that federal investigators are pursuing a separate probe into suspicious exercise on prediction market platforms tied to Iran struggle developments.

Reuters reported that well-timed bets towards oil costs totaled as a lot as $7 billion throughout crude, diesel and gasoline futures in March and April. The trades included quick positions on markets operated by CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange, in accordance with Reuters.

Those markets are separate from the prediction market platforms cited within the Pappas letter. But the overlap is notable as a result of each change operators have ties to the rising prediction market sector. CME Group offers occasion contracts by means of partnerships with platforms like FanDuel Predicts and DraftKings Predictions, whereas Intercontinental Exchange has disclosed $1.6 billion in direct investments in Polymarket.

The parallel scrutiny reveals how Iran-related buying and selling issues are actually reaching each conventional commodity markets and prediction market platforms. In each circumstances, the central query is whether or not anybody used advance data of presidency selections to revenue earlier than the knowledge turned public.

Other current congressional letters increase prediction market issues

The Pappas request follows different current congressional letters urgent for extra scrutiny of prediction markets.

Last month, Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, one other House Oversight Committee member, asked Comer to hold a hearing and launch an investigation into whether or not senior Trump administration officers, their family or associates traded on advance data of Iran struggle developments. Krishnamoorthi’s letter centered partly on social media feedback from Trump earlier than oil costs moved sharply.

Other lawmakers have centered on client safety and playing harms. Reps. Valerie Foushee and Paul Tonko sent a letter earlier this week to sports activities betting and prediction market CEOs, together with leaders at Kalshi, Polymarket and Robinhood, urgent them on underage entry, promoting practices and habit dangers.

The Pappas letter is extra carefully tied to Krishnamoorthi’s Iran-trading issues, but it surely takes a unique route. While Krishnamoorthi requested for a listening to centered on potential buying and selling by officers, Pappas is looking for platform data that might extra instantly present how the trades occurred, who was behind them and what the businesses noticed internally earlier than or after the wagers had been positioned.

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