How Trump’s Words Moved Bitcoin: From Panic to Confidence in Just 2 Weeks
October’s anticipated “Uptober” momentum and seasonal bullish expectations seem to have taken a backseat.
Instead, US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff threats and commerce remarks towards China took middle stage, and dictated Bitcoin’s sharp worth swings and investor feelings all through the month.
BTC Market’s Emotional Rollercoaster
Trump’s China-related rhetoric in October 2025 reverberated via Bitcoin’s (BTC) worth motion and on-chain sentiment, because the asset continues to be delicate to geopolitical threat. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator, which measures mixture market psychology via unrealized beneficial properties and losses, mirrored buyers’ shifting feelings all through the month. On October 10, when Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, Bitcoin tumbled by 8.4% to round $104,800. NUPL concurrently dipped beneath 0.50, a degree traditionally related to rising worry and profit-taking.
Just a few days later, as Trump adopted a softer tone on China, Bitcoin recovered towards the mid-$110,000 vary whereas NUPL mirrored cautious optimism.
However, renewed tensions on October 14, which noticed new export controls and port charges, ended up triggering one other sell-off, which pushed each BTC worth and NUPL decrease once more. Sentiment started to stabilize solely after October 24, when information of Trump’s upcoming summit together with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.
Bitcoin climbed above $115,000, and NUPL began to get well. By October 26, experiences emerged that Trump may cancel the tariff plan, which additional boosted confidence, and NUPL approached 0.52, indicating rising market energy. Pointing to this market volatility and sentiment swings, CryptoQuant (*2*) that geopolitical shocks like Trump’s commerce threats don’t simply shake costs; additionally they “reshape market sentiment.”
BTC Shorts Liquidated
As Bitcoin rebounded, over-leveraged quick merchants bought liquidated. The asset now hovers above the $114,000 assist zone, a degree that not too long ago acted as a robust space of purchaser protection. According to crypto analyst Ted Pillows, the subsequent key step for it’s to reclaim the $118,000 zone, which has repeatedly served as short-term resistance all through October’s uneven buying and selling. A transfer above this threshold, he suggested, might pave the way in which for a brand new all-time high throughout the subsequent one to two weeks.
Not everybody shares the rising optimism. Another market skilled, Ali Martinez, for one, warned that the asset might quickly face profit-taking strain, because the TD Sequential indicator has flashed a promote sign on the every day chart – a instrument usually used to establish potential pattern exhaustion.
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