I predicted Bitcoin falling to $49k this year and January delivered some very concerning red flags
My $49k Bitcoin bear thesis, a January check-in, the plumbing is flashing whereas value bleeds
I wrote my medium-term $49,000 bear thesis in late November with one easy concept, Bitcoin nonetheless strikes in cycles, and the subsequent actual “this is the low” second tends to arrive when miner economics and flows line up on the similar time.
It is now Jan. 30, 2026, and the trustworthy replace is this, the variables I care about look extra burdened than they did when I printed, and the tape has not delivered the type of panic value print that makes these variables matter to everybody without delay.
Somewhat paradoxically, my ‘medium-term bear thesis’ was meant to be long-term bullish. The concept being that we might get a brief, sharp bear market with max ache adopted by a sustained, multi-year bull run. However, the value is not fairly matching with the alerts proper now.
Bitcoin is hovering across the low $80,000s (after falling to $81,000 in a single day) as I write this, which suggests my high-$40ks zone has not even come into sight but.
That disconnect is the story.
Because beneath the value, the components of the system that pay for Bitcoin’s safety, and the components that transfer institutional dimension, are appearing like winter already arrived.
The winter feeling is coming from charges, not the chart
Start with the safety funds, as a result of that was my unique “fragility” declare.
On Jan. 29, miners earned about $37.22 million in daily revenue.
On the identical date, whole transaction fees paid per day have been about $260,550.
Do the maths and you get the temper music, charges are roughly 0.7% of miner income.
That isn’t “charges are weak,” that’s “charges are mainly absent,” within the sense that the payment market is contributing nearly nothing to the price of securing the chain on a day-to-day foundation.
Even the dwell mempool image appears to be like sleepy. The projected next-block median payment price is round 0.12 to 0.14 sat/vB proper now.
So when folks ask why I preserve circling again to miner economics, it’s as a result of this is what a payment flooring failing appears to be like like in actual time. The community leans on issuance, issuance steps down on schedule, and all the pieces else has to choose up the slack later.
The ETF window has been a gradual leak, with just a few ugly gulps
The second leg of my framework was circulate elasticity, the concept the ETF period creates a clear, mechanical method to see threat urge for food flip.
In January, that elasticity has been pointing within the improper path.
On Farside, the previous few weeks present a number of heavy outflow prints, together with -$708.7M on Jan. 21 and -$817.8M on Jan. 29.
Total internet flows are additionally destructive at -$1.095B year-to-date. That issues greater than any single day as a result of it modifications the psychology of dips. In the soft-landing model of my thesis, the tape will get assist from persistent dip shopping for by means of the ETF pipe. Right now, the pipe has been taking water out.
There have been massive inexperienced days earlier within the month too, Jan. 13 at +$753.8M and Jan. 14 at +$840.6M, and these are actual, however the late-month circulate prints have been the type you are feeling on a desk.
If you commerce for a residing, you realize this sensation, value holds up, the internals begin to rot, and everybody retains searching for the second the chart lastly displays what the plumbing has been saying.
Hashrate is wobbling, miners are adapting, and that adaptation modifications habits
Another piece of the setup is miner elasticity.
Hashrate continues to be big, however it has been swinging. On Jan. 29 the each day common is roughly 901 EH/s, down from earlier peaks this month.
That by itself doesn’t equal capitulation, and I am not making an attempt to drive a dramatic story onto routine variance. It does match the broader level, miners now have extra knobs to flip.
The most essential knob is the one no one talked about in prior cycles, AI and HPC internet hosting.
When a miner indicators long-duration compute offers, that enterprise begins to look much less like a pure BTC margin machine and extra like an influence, land, and infrastructure operator that occurs to mine Bitcoin.
TeraWulf put that shift in daring print when it introduced two 10-year HPC colocation agreements with Fluidstack for 200+ MW, with Google backstopping a big portion of obligations and receiving an fairness stake, per the corporate’s personal launch.
Riot has been exploring the identical path, together with a proper analysis to doubtlessly repurpose important capability for AI and HPC, in accordance to DataCenterDynamics.
This issues for Bitcoin market construction as a result of it modifications the incentives round hashrate on the lows.
A miner with a second income stream can behave in another way underneath stress. They may curtail or redirect capability with out quick existential strain, they may shield liquidity for buildouts, they may promote BTC extra mechanically to fund capex, they may merely cease caring about marginal hashprice in the way in which a pure miner as soon as did.
That is the elasticity I was pointing at, and it’s beginning to present up within the knowledge’s tone even whereas value sits high.
So what’s the “state of the thesis” proper now
Here is the cleanest method I can say it in a single breath.
The payment flooring appears to be like damaged, ETF flows have been risk-off for weeks, and the miner enterprise mannequin is evolving in a method that may amplify reflexive habits throughout drawdowns.
Those are the circumstances I wrote about.
The lacking ingredient is the half folks bear in mind, the chart dumping into the zone the place panic turns into stock switch.
Bitcoin at $82k doesn’t drive anybody to make that call. A print within the $40ks would.
That is why this replace is much less about value targets and extra about pressure. The system is constructing pressure.
| Scenario | Bottom Price (USD) | Timing Window | Path Shape | Key Triggers Into Low (Jan 30, 2026 standing) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base | 49,000 | Q1–Q2 2026 | 2–3 sharp legs decrease, basing |
 Hashprice spot sub-$40/PH/day Fee% of miner income < 10% (excessive, ~<1% on newest prints) 20D ETF flows destructive (internet outflows over the past 20 buying and selling days) “Forwards sub-$40 for weeks” depends upon whether or not you deal with spot because the proxy, forwards have a near-dated hump
|
| Soft-landing | 56,000–60,000 | H2 2025 | Single flush, vary |
 Fee% > 15% sustained (reverse, charges are very low) Stable hashrate (has proven significant variance this month) Mixed to constructive ETF flows on down days (late-Jan confirmed heavy outflows)
|
| Deep reduce | 36,000–42,000 | Late 2026–Q1 2027 | Waterfall, quick |
Macro risk-off (not a single on-chain metric, combined sign exterior this desk) Fee drought (supported by charges and feerates) Miner misery (not “capitulation,” however stress seen through low hashprice) Persistent ETF outflows (current window destructive, “persistent” over longer horizon nonetheless TBD)
|
The human-interest angle folks miss, miners are operating two firms without delay
When you scale back this to “charges are down,” it feels like a chart observe.
In actual life it appears to be like like operators making an attempt to preserve the lights on, negotiating energy contracts, planning buildouts, courting AI prospects, juggling shareholders, and nonetheless needing to compete in probably the most brutal hash race on earth.
A low-fee atmosphere doesn’t simply weaken the safety funds, it forces miners to get artistic, and creativity introduces new behaviors into the market.
The base-case bear I described in November was at all times about that habits exhibiting up concurrently circulate strain, and then value lastly doing the factor it does when leverage and narrative crack collectively.
Right now, two of these levers are already pulled.
What would make me say the bear is resolving early
I am preserving my flip-level framework, and I am preserving it boring on objective.
- Fees want to cease residing within the mud, the YCharts payment line wants to rebuild an actual flooring relative to the YCharts income line.
- ETF circulate habits wants to change, the Farside desk wants to present constant dip shopping for once more, not late-month air pockets.
- Mempool circumstances want to really feel alive once more, payment strain exhibiting up within the mempool medians in a method that implies actual settlement demand.
If these occur whereas value stays elevated, the “shortest winter but” framing begins to win.
If these keep weak and value finally breaks, the $49k fashion print stays in play as a liquidity magnet, as a result of that’s the place the client base tends to change character.
Where I stand right now
I don’t have the cathartic conclusion that each market story needs, as a result of the market has not given it but.
The infrastructure tells me winter circumstances are already right here.
The chart tells me the group has not felt them.
That hole is the factor to watch, as a result of gaps like this don’t normally persist without end.
And after they shut, they shut quick.
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