IMF Q2 2025 COFER Data Weakens Dedollarization Narratives Cited as Bullish Catalysts for Bitcoin
The US greenback’s international reserve share dropped to 56.32% in Q2 2025, however 92% of that decline was pushed by exchange-rate results, not central financial institution portfolio modifications. Currency changes present a marginal decline to only 57.67%, indicating central banks largely maintained their USD holdings.
The International Monetary Fund’s new Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER) report offers essential insights for crypto buyers monitoring macroeconomic tendencies. The knowledge reveals that central banks saved greenback allocations regular, even amid notable foreign money swings throughout the quarter.
IMF: Central Banks Stayed Dollar-Heavy Despite Depreciation
The IMF’s COFER dataset tracks foreign money reserves from 149 economies in US {dollars}. In Q2 2025, main foreign money actions gave the look of massive portfolio reallocations.
According to the report, the DXY index declined by greater than 10% within the first half of 2025, its greatest drop since 1973.
The US greenback declined 7.9% towards the euro and 9.6% towards the Swiss franc in Q2. These swings lowered the USD reserve share from 57.79% to 56.32%. However, this discount mirrored exchange-rate results slightly than lively reallocation.
Adjusted for fixed change charges, the greenback’s reserve share edged down solely 0.12% to 57.67%. This signifies that central banks made minimal modifications to their greenback reserves throughout the quarter, difficult stories of global dedollarization.
Similarly, the euro’s reserve share appeared to rise to 21.13%, a rise of 1.13 factors. Yet, this was additionally pushed completely by foreign money valuations.
At fixed change charges, the euro’s share declined barely by 0.04 factors, displaying central banks really trimmed euro holdings.
What This Means for Bitcoin and Altcoins
This evaluation gives muted macro signals for Bitcoin and different digital property marketed as hedges towards US greenback weak point. Central banks didn’t diversify away from the greenback even as the foreign money depreciated considerably.
Dedollarization trends are sometimes highlighted as potential drivers of institutional adoption of crypto. However, the COFER knowledge, as soon as adjusted for change charges, counsel that these tendencies might be deceptive with out correct context.
The British pound additionally noticed its reserve share seem to develop in Q2, however this was one other valuation impact overlaying up an actual lower in holdings. These findings exhibit why buyers ought to look beyond headline numbers to understand the actual shifts in liquidity.
The IMF’s research offers buyers a extra correct view of financial coverage throughout unstable markets. By distinguishing between true policy moves and momentary valuation modifications, crypto buyers can higher consider international macro tendencies.
Central Bank Reserve Strategies and Outlook
Dollar holdings remained steady in Q2 2025, displaying central banks nonetheless depend on conventional currencies even as digital alternate options acquire consideration. The IMF emphasised that exchange-rate changes are essential for understanding reserve shifts precisely.
Central banks prioritize liquidity, returns, and threat when managing reserves. The greenback’s sturdy place is linked to deep markets, high transaction utility, and established methods. These facets are nonetheless hurdles for digital property to beat.
The IMF’s methodology reveals how foreign money modifications can distort reserve knowledge. In Q2, almost all reported shifts in main currencies resulted from valuation swings, not precise portfolio rebalancing. Central banks maintained a cautious stance throughout the market’s turbulence.
These findings assist make clear international tendencies shaping crypto markets. Investors keen on dedollarization as a Bitcoin catalyst ought to depend on exchange-rate-adjusted numbers.
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