Important Bitcoin Macro Cycle Durations You Should Know About
A crypto analyst argues that Bitcoin (BTC) value historical past reveals a constant macro cycle sample characterised by lengthy bull markets adopted by shorter bear markets. This repeating construction has appeared throughout a number of market cycles and is now getting used to border expectations for Bitcoin’s present and future price movements.
Bitcoin Macro Cycles Reveal Recurrent Pattern
Bitcoin’s macro cycles have typically served as a historical blueprint for a typical 4-year cycle. Over the years, BTC has fashioned key patterns and cyclical actions that function a basis for decoding present market situations and, to some extent, monitoring future value motion. Against this backdrop, pseudonymous crypto analyst Rekt Fencer has unveiled a chart evaluation, highlighting historic Bitcoin macro durations that reveal a constant repeating construction that would assist anticipate the cryptocurrency’s next major move.
Rekt Fencer’s evaluation dates again to the 2015-2017 bull cycle, when Bitcoin skilled its first main enlargement section, pushed by world consciousness and rising participation amongst early traders. The chart confirmed costs accelerating steadily over 1,064 days from January 12, 2015, earlier than reaching a euphoric peak on December 11, 2017. Bitcoin had risen from roughly $160 to over $12,500 on the time, setting the stage for the market’s first large-scale bear development.
The 2017- 2018 bear market mirrored the aftermath of speculative extra, as investor sentiment shifted quickly from optimism to warning. Over roughly 364 days, Bitcoin retraced a lot of its features, dropping beneath $3,950 and hitting a backside.
During the 2018 to 2021 bull cycle, Bitcoin skilled a extra mature, institutionally pushed rally lasting roughly 1,064 days. This interval noticed the main cryptocurrency acquire mainstream monetary recognition and widespread adoption. The hype throughout this cycle had pushed BTC’s value from underneath $3,950 on December 10, 2018, to a former ATH of over $60,000 on 8, November 2021.
The bear market that followed this cycle lasted roughly 364 days, from November 8, 2021, to November 7, 2022. This downturn adopted a collection of high-profile crypto firm failures and a shift in sentiment that led to Bitcoin declining beneath $18,500 from its ATH.
The main issue that stands out in Rekt Fencer’s evaluation is the consistency within the period of Bitcoin’s market phases. Each bull cycle ran for 1,064 days, adopted by a 364-day correction. Building on this sample, the analyst means that the present cycle might unfold alongside an identical timeline.
Where The Market Is In The Current Cycle
Based on Rekt Fencer’s chart, the 2022 to 2025 bull cycle has formally ended and is now in its bear market section. The cycle additionally lasted 1,064 days, with the BTC price crossing $126,000 on October 6, 2025. Now that the cryptocurrency is in a bear market, Rekt Fencer predicts it might additionally run for 364 days from October 6, 2025, to October 5, 2026. During that point, BTC is projected to achieve a backside close to $38,500, marking a roughly 40% decline from present ranges above $69,000.
