Iran Faces Regime Pressure: Polymarket Odds on Khamenei’s Ouster Hit 56%
The US army’s dramatic seize of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro final weekend has despatched shockwaves by means of Tehran, the place Iran’s management now confronts the uncomfortable risk of the same destiny.
The prediction markets are taking discover.
Traders Price In Regime Risk
Polymarket merchants are pricing within the danger. The chance of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei being removed as Supreme Leader by year-end has surged to 56%, up 21 proportion factors in latest days. The spike displays rising market conviction that Iran’s 85-year-old Supreme Leader could not survive the convergence of inner unrest and exterior stress now bearing down on the Islamic Republic.
Venezuela and Iran have been shut allies, certain by shared hostility towards Washington. Tehran dispatched oil tankers to assist Caracas circumvent sanctions, and the 2 nations signed a 20-year cooperation settlement. Watching Maduro dragged from his bed room by American forces has made Tehran’s longstanding warnings about US regime change plots really feel uncomfortably prescient.
Protests Spread Nationwide
Protests triggered by Iran’s forex collapse have unfold far past their origins amongst shopkeepers. Demonstrations now span 88 cities throughout 27 of Iran’s 31 provinces, based on the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA). The group studies not less than 34 protesters killed and over 2,000 arrested, although these figures can’t be independently verified.
Khamenei has dismissed some demonstrators as rioters, mercenaries, and foreign-linked agitators, whereas safety forces deploy paramilitary items and reportedly raid hospitals to arrest the wounded.
Trump’s Escalating Threats
President Trump has twice warned Iran in lower than per week. Speaking aboard Air Force One, he cautioned that killing protesters would set off a forceful US response. In a radio interview, he advised host Hugh Hewitt that Iran would “pay hell” for such violence.
Trump declined to fulfill with Reza Pahlavi, son of the deposed Shah, saying it will not be acceptable presently. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s public assist for Iranian protesters has possible deepened Tehran’s siege mentality.
What Prediction Markets Show
Polymarket’s graduated odds reveal dealer fascinated with Iran’s trajectory. The January 31 market sits at 22% on $4.3 million in quantity, March at 35%, June at 42%, and December at 56%. This sample suggests expectations of extended instability slightly than imminent collapse.
| Deadline | Probability | Trading Volume |
|---|---|---|
| January 31, 2026 | 22% | $4.3 million |
| March 31, 2026 | 35% | $1.9 million |
| June 30, 2026 | 42% | $1.8 million |
| December 31, 2026 | 56% | $504,000 |
Related markets present 51% odds of President Masoud Pezeshkian’s elimination by year-end, whereas 62% nonetheless wager on “Nothing Ever Happens”—reflecting persistent uncertainty about whether or not stress will translate into precise regime change.
Why Iran Is Not Venezuela
Despite parallels, Iran presents a essentially completely different problem. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has constructed proxy networks throughout Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Gaza, designed to undertaking energy and deter assault. Iran’s drone and missile arsenal has confirmed efficient in regional conflicts.
Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned that any American motion would make all US regional property legit targets. Last summer time’s Israeli strikes revealed vulnerabilities but in addition produced uncommon nationwide unity, with Iranians throughout the political spectrum condemning international assault.
Khamenei wrote on social media that Iranians who believed in negotiating with America have now witnessed the reality: whereas Iran negotiated, Washington ready for struggle. The prediction markets’ 56% chance represents basically a coin flip in opposition to the Supreme Leader’s survival.
For a regime that has endured 45 years of American enmity, these odds could appear manageable. But Maduro in all probability calculated his personal probabilities fairly favorably till US forces got here by means of his door.
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