Is a Crash Coming? — $1.1B Bet Against Bitcoin
Recent information from the Bitcoin choices market signifies a important improve in buying and selling quantity betting on a value decline over the previous 24 hours.
Greeks.live, a crypto choices analytics agency, famous a important pattern. A put up on X on Thursday confirmed that greater than $1.15 billion has poured into out-of-the-money (OTM) put choices.
Key Data Points to a Growing Bearish Sentiment
The agency defined that bearish bets have noticeably elevated during the last 24 hours, with 28% of complete choices quantity flowing into OTM put choices. OTM put choices are extremely speculative positions that profit from a substantial future drop in asset value.
The choices contract’s implied volatility has turned extra damaging this week. It has reached ranges just like these seen on October 11, the day after a important market crash.
Greeks.reside famous that the cryptocurrency market has skilled excessive volatility since information of President Trump’s tariff battle broke final Friday, inflicting a speedy swing between bullish and bearish sentiment. The agency believes the market’s focus is shifting towards a bearish outlook.
This pattern within the choices market means that large-scale liquidity suppliers and market makers are pricing in a appreciable danger of a value drop. While Bitcoin’s technical pattern stays intact, Greeks.reside recommends shopping for put choices as a appropriate hedging instrument within the present local weather.
On-Chain Data Echoes Bearish Signs
CryptoQuant analyst TeddyVision pointed to a comparable sentiment in stablecoin flows. He views stablecoins because the “arteries” of crypto liquidity, with most flows heading towards Bitcoin. However, he warns in opposition to complicated spot and derivatives buying and selling.
TeddyVision highlighted two distinct developments from August 1 to mid-October 2025. An evaluation of the 30-day SMA of stablecoin web inflows to exchanges reveals that capital used for precise asset purchases has decreased, whereas liquidity supporting leveraged derivatives like futures and perpetual contracts has elevated.
“It reveals that value progress just isn’t being pushed by natural demand however by speculative leverage and artificial publicity—by means of derivatives and ETF—linked capital rotation. In quick, the engine remains to be operating, however it’s operating on fumes.”
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