Is Bitcoin Already in a Bear Market? Fidelity Chief Raises Concerns
Bitcoin has largely ignored what ought to have been supportive macro alerts. US CPI cooled to 2.7% in December, strengthening rate-cut expectations, but Bitcoin failed to reply. Instead of attracting contemporary capital, the value stalled whereas cash rotated elsewhere.
That disconnect is why the Bitcoin bear market dialogue is resurfacing.
Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, lately warned that Bitcoin might have already ended its newest four-year cycle in October, each in value and time. The on-chain and market information since then more and more assist that view.
Data Signals Suggest Bitcoin May Already Be in a Bear Market
Multiple unbiased indicators now level to the identical conclusion: capital is retreating, conviction holders are promoting, and Bitcoin is absorbing risk with out actual demand.
Stablecoin Inflows Have Collapsed Since the Cycle Peak
Stablecoin inflows typically act as dry powder for crypto rallies. That gasoline has vanished.
Total change inflows for ERC-20 stablecoins peaked at round 10.2 billion on August 14. By December 24, inflows had fallen to roughly 1.06 billion, a drop of practically 90%.
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That August influx peak carefully preceded Bitcoin’s October high above $125,000, the identical interval Timmer recognized because the probably cycle high.
Since then, contemporary capital has didn’t return, reinforcing the concept distribution changed accumulation after the height.
Long-Term Holders Have Turned Aggressive Sellers
Conviction holders are behaving in a different way after October.
Bitcoin long-term holder internet place change flipped destructive shortly after the cycle high. Selling accelerated from roughly 16,500 BTC per day in late October to round 279,000 BTC lately. That is a rise of greater than 1,500% in day by day distribution strain.
This aligns straight with Timmer’s thesis that the four-year halving cycle section probably ended in October. Long-term holders seem to agree, lowering publicity somewhat than defending value.
Bitcoin Dominance Is Rising, But Not for Bullish Reasons
Bitcoin dominance has climbed again towards 57–59%, however this isn’t a risk-on sign.
After the softer CPI print, capital didn’t rotate into Bitcoin. Instead, it flowed into conventional hedges. Over the previous 12 months, silver has rallied by over 120%, whereas gold is up roughly 65%. At the identical time, broader crypto markets have lagged badly.
This shift reinforces the concept Bitcoin’s rising dominance just isn’t being pushed by contemporary threat urge for food, however by capital retreating into relative security inside crypto.
That view is echoed by an unique market remark shared with BeInCrypto by Ray Youssef, founder and CEO of NoOnes, who highlighted why gold has led the 2025 debasement commerce whereas Bitcoin stays range-bound.
“While gold might clearly be successful the 2025 debasement commerce on value efficiency, the comparability masks a extra nuanced market actuality. Gold’s latest run to new all-time highs and 67% YTD features replicate classical defensive investor positioning as capital seeks certainty in a market setting outlined by fiscal extra, geopolitical pressure, and macro coverage uncertainty. Increased central financial institution accumulation, a softer greenback, and protracted inflation dangers have strengthened gold’s function because the market’s most well-liked defensive asset,” he stated.
Youssef added that Bitcoin’s habits this 12 months has diverged sharply from the digital-gold narrative.
“Bitcoin, in contrast, has lately didn’t ship on the hedge narrative. The asset has not traded like digital gold in 2025, owing to its heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic components. BTC’s upside is now tied to liquidity growth, sovereign coverage readability, and threat sentiment, somewhat than to financial debasement alone,” he highlighted.
Mega-Whale Addresses Are Quietly Declining
Large holders are additionally stepping again.
The variety of Bitcoin addresses holding greater than 10,000 BTC has fallen from 92 in early December to 88. That decline got here alongside falling costs, not accumulation.
These addresses typically characterize institutional-scale gamers. Their discount provides one other layer of affirmation that sensible cash just isn’t positioning aggressively for upside right here.
Bitcoin Remains Below a Critical Long-Term Moving Average
Bitcoin is still trading below its 365-day moving average close to $102,000, a degree final decisively misplaced firstly of the 2022 bear market.
This transferring common acts as each technical and psychological assist. Failure to reclaim it suggests the market has shifted from pattern continuation to regime threat. If value stays beneath this degree, historic precedent factors towards deeper draw back zones close to the merchants’ realized value band round $72,000.
Taken collectively, these alerts assist Timmer’s warning that Bitcoin might already be in a bear-market section or closing in on that, even when the value has not absolutely mirrored it but. Capital has dried up, conviction holders are promoting, dominance is rising defensively, and macro reduction is being ignored.
That stated, not all long-term cycle helps have damaged but. Those counter-signals, and the precise ranges that resolve whether or not this turns into a full bear market or a prolonged transition, come subsequent.
Why the Bitcoin Bear Market Case Is Not Fully Settled Yet
Despite the rising proof pointing towards a Bitcoin bear market, two long-term cycle indicators nonetheless argue in opposition to a confirmed structural breakdown.
Also, one cause the Bitcoin bear market case stays unresolved is how markets are decoding the CPI slowdown. While cooling inflation sometimes advantages threat belongings, the present response suggests traders are prioritizing security and liquidity over progress.
That doesn’t imply the CPI sign is mistaken. It might merely be early, with Bitcoin traditionally reacting later than conventional hedges as soon as liquidity expectations absolutely translate into capital flows.
These and the indications we’d focus on subsequent don’t negate the bearish alerts mentioned above. But they clarify why this section should resolve as a extended transition somewhat than a full bear cycle.
Pi Cycle Top Has Not Triggered
One of Bitcoin’s most dependable cycle indicators, the Pi Cycle Top, has not flashed a peak sign. The indicator compares the 111-day transferring common with the 350-day transferring common multiplied by two.
Historically, when these two strains cross, Bitcoin has been close to or at main cycle tops.
As of now, the 2 strains stay extensively separated. That suggests Bitcoin just isn’t in an overheated or euphoric section, even after the October high.
This contradicts the thought raised by Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, who famous that the October peak close to $125,000 match prior cycle timing.
In previous cycles, true bear markets started after clear Pi Cycle confirmations. That sign remains to be absent.
The 2-Year SMA Remains the Line That Matters Most
The second and extra instant counter-argument is structural. Bitcoin remains to be buying and selling close to its 2-year easy transferring common, which sits round $82,800.
This degree has repeatedly acted as Bitcoin’s long-term pattern divider. Monthly closes above the 2-year SMA have traditionally marked cycle survival.
Sustained closes beneath it have marked deep bear phases.
So far, Bitcoin has not confirmed a month-to-month shut beneath this line.
That makes December’s month-to-month shut crucial. If Bitcoin holds above $82,800 into year-end, the market probably stays in a late-cycle transition somewhat than a confirmed Bitcoin bear market.
That final result retains open the likelihood that 2026 displays delayed upside somewhat than extended draw back.
However, if December closes decisively below the 2-year SMA, draw back projections towards the $65,000–$75,000 vary, referenced by Timmer, acquire structural backing.
TL;DR —Key Bitcoin Price Levels To Watch Now
The bearish framework additionally has clear invalidation ranges. A reclaim of the 365-day transferring common close to $102,000 would materially weaken the bear market thesis. That would align with Tom Lee’s year-end Bitcoin price prediction.
That degree marked the beginning of the 2022 bear market when it broke, and would sign renewed pattern energy if recovered.
In easy phrases:
- Above $82,800 into December shut: transition section stays intact
- Below $82,800 on a month-to-month foundation: bear market threat escalates
- Back above $102,000: bullish construction begins rebuilding
For now, Bitcoin sits between conviction promoting and long-term cycle assist. The market just isn’t confirming energy, however it isn’t absolutely breaking both.
The December shut will resolve which narrative carries into 2026.
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