Is Bitcoin Price Headed Lower? Analysts Debate a Much Deeper Fall
Bitcoin fell sharply to $73,000 on February 3, extending a broader bearish pattern that has now erased 41% from its October 2025 all-time high above $126,000. The drawdown has intensified debate over whether or not the market is approaching a cyclical backside—or getting into a deeper corrective part.
The sell-off mirrors rising anxiousness throughout conventional markets. US fairness indices weakened amid issues about synthetic intelligence-driven disruption and escalating geopolitical dangers, prompting traders to rotate away from danger belongings.
In that surroundings, capital flowed again into traditional safe havens such as gold and silver, whereas Bitcoin failed to draw defensive demand.
Macro and Geopolitical Stress Push Investors Toward Traditional Havens
Bitcoin’s volatility continues to mirror macro sensitivity somewhat than isolation from international markets. The newest leg down coincided with renewed tensions between the United States and Iran after an Iranian drone was reportedly shot down close to a US plane service.
The incident pushed the VIX up roughly 10% and drove the Crypto Fear & Greed Index into “excessive worry” territory.
At the identical time, developments in synthetic intelligence—together with new bulletins round Anthropic’s Claude chatbot—sparked renewed issues about disruption throughout the tech sector.
That uncertainty weighed on main expertise shares and additional diminished urge for food for speculative belongings.
While Bitcoin declined, gold rose 6.8% and silver gained 10%, reinforcing their position as most popular hedges in periods of financial and geopolitical stress.
Speaking to CNN, Gerry O’Shea, Global Head of Market Insights at Hashdex, famous that the divergence between Bitcoin and gold suggests traders nonetheless view valuable metals as the first secure haven in periods of uncertainty.
That shift has weakened Bitcoin’s short-term refuge narrative and added draw back strain.
Analysts Warn of Deeper Drawdowns and a Potential Bull Trap
Market members stay divided, however a number of analysts are overtly warning that the correction is probably not over.
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen argued that Bitcoin’s near-term path is crucial:
Other analysts are extra pessimistic. Nehal, a extensively adopted dealer on X, prompt the present construction resembles a classic bull trap, warning that the transfer decrease might solely be midway full.
According to Nehal’s historic comparability, Bitcoin’s previous cycles ended with drawdowns of 86% in 2018 and 78% in 2021.
Applying a comparable framework to the present cycle implies a potential 72% decline, which might place Bitcoin close to $35,000.
This cyclical perspective stays influential regardless of structural adjustments available in the market, together with ETF adoption and larger institutional participation.
On-Chain Data Signals “Bottom Discovery” Phase
On-chain indicators are including one other layer to the controversy. Analyst CryptOpus famous that Bitcoin has entered what he describes as a “backside discovery” part for the primary time this cycle.
At the 2025 peak, roughly 19.8 million BTC had been held in revenue. That determine has now dropped to 11.1 million BTC, a 40% discount in worthwhile provide.
Historically, comparable situations have marked transitions from corrective phases towards cycle resets. In 2018, Bitcoin remained on this state for roughly eight months earlier than stabilizing.
Key Technical Levels Under Scrutiny
From a technical standpoint, draw back dangers stay clearly outlined. Nic, CEO of Coin Bureau, highlighted that Bitcoin has remained beneath strain since breaking beneath the 50-week shifting common in November.
Bitcoin is at present buying and selling close to MicroStrategy’s cost basis and near the April lows round $74,400.
“If we break decrease, the following main degree is $70,000, simply above the earlier all-time high of $69,000. A clear break beneath that opens the door to a bear market goal within the $55,700–$58,200 vary, between realized value and the 200-week shifting common,” Nic warned.
Conflicting Views on Whether a Bottom Is Near
Not all analysts agree with the bearish outlook. Michaël van de Poppe believes Bitcoin might already be nearing the top of its downturn.
Meanwhile, analyst David Battaglia targeted on liquidation dynamics, describing present situations as more and more irrational.
Battaglia famous that beneath $85,000, liquidity gaps had been important, which means panic sellers—whether or not institutional or whales—seemingly exited at suboptimal costs.
He contrasted this with the October 10 crash tied to Binance, which he described as structurally cleaner.
“Between $90,000 and $100,000, there’s large brief density and a 14:1 puts-to-calls imbalance, which beneath regular situations already alerts a sturdy backside,” Battaglia said.
In Summary
Bitcoin’s drop to $73,000 has reignited fears of a deeper correction. Macro uncertainty, geopolitical stress, and blended on-chain alerts depart the market break up between expectations of additional draw back and indicators of an rising backside.
The coming weeks will seemingly decide whether or not this transfer represents a short-term pause—or the muse of a new pattern for 2026.
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