Is Korea’s Memory Chip Boom Ending? Elon Musk Points to China

Tesla CEO Elon Musk says China will make “a LOT of RAM” in 2028. His submit provides a contemporary provide risk to a South Korean column warning of reminiscence chip oversupply from 2029.

The timing stands out. Korean chipmakers are posting report earnings, but the column argues the nation has solely two to three years to construct new progress industries.

Why Memory Chip Oversupply Is a Risk for Korea’s Economy

The column ran in Maeil Business Newspaper, a number one South Korean monetary day by day. It argues the financial system now leans closely on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

That reliance, the author says, leaves Korea uncovered as soon as the growth fades. In the column’s view, reminiscence chip oversupply might hit round 2029, when new manufacturing capability begins operating.

Gartner knowledge reveals how giant the guess has grown. The analysis agency expects reminiscence income of $837 billion in 2026, or 54% of world semiconductor gross sales. That share stood at simply 27% in 2025, and the agency credit rising costs for a lot of the soar.

However, Gartner nonetheless sees tight provide in 2027, at the same time as additional capability enters the market.

The concern just isn’t new in Seoul both. The Bank of Korea has already known as the AI chip commerce a financial stability problem.

Could Chinese RAM Arrive Before Korea Diversifies?

Musk shared the column’s abstract on X with a one-line reply. He didn’t say which Chinese firms would drive that output.

Meanwhile, Chinese rival ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) just lately unveiled progress on a denser DRAM design. The information dragged on Samsung and SK Hynix shares, which collectively make up about half of the KOSPI. CXMT already held about 8% of world DRAM income within the first quarter, in accordance to Counterpoint Research.

Musk has additionally praised Micron’s pricing restraint, signaling he’s watching reminiscence prices intently.

For now, demand nonetheless outruns provide. Gartner even expects reminiscence income to cross $1 trillion in 2027.

However, if Chinese output scales up in 2028, reminiscence chip oversupply might begin a yr sooner than the column expects. Korea’s window to diversify could then show even shorter.

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