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Is The Crypto Bull Run Over? Lekker Capital CIO Warns ‘Don’t Miss The Forest’

Lekker Capital CIO Quinn Thompson says the market simply lived by means of a uncommon “positioning rinse” that has left crypto consensus going through the unsuitable route at exactly the unsuitable time. “There’s about 1, at most 2, occasions per 12 months the place I really feel like I’m seeing issues at 180 diploma odds with the crypto twitter consensus,” Thompson wrote on October 20, pointing to prior episodes in September 2023, September 2024, and February 2025 as comparable inflection factors for sentiment. “I’m utilizing the under 3 tweets to summarize consensus,” he added, linking to contemporaneous bearish posts from @qwqiao, @blknoiz06, and @cburniske to border the prevailing temper.

Why The Crypto Bull Run Highly Likely Isn’t Over

Thompson’s core claim is simple and intentionally contrarian: the October 10 open-interest flush was not a motive to show medium-term bearish on Bitcoin and Ethereum, however a capitulation that usually precedes sturdy ahead returns. “Current setup for BTC and ETH is uncommon – largest positioning rinse in historical past of crypto whereas standing on doorstep of macro goldilocks. 10/10 liquidation cleared extra leverage in $ and % of OI than total Jan–Apr ’25 interval. Opportunity forward is much like pre-Trump victory ’24,” he mentioned.

The message isn’t a victory lap, he emphasised: “It’s foolish to even should say this however the referenced tweets usually are not about being unsuitable or proper – merely references to sentiment… Sometimes it’s higher to look at extra, love extra and say much less.”

The positioning argument rests on a easy historic heuristic: promoting “after” a deep deleveraging occasion is normally a poor commerce as soon as compelled sellers have been flushed. “Anyone wish to run the mathematics on what proportion of -30–40% open curiosity crypto liquidation occasions was it a good suggestion to get bearish AFTER it occurred?” Thompson requested

He made his speculation specific: “Getting medium timeframe bearish, e.g. 40/80/120 days ahead, after a big scale liquidation occasion is a poor danger/reward the overwhelming majority of the time, particularly whether it is of the magnitude of the ten/10 occasion.” Market veteran Alex Krüger and Framework Ventures co-founder Vance Spencer every replied “0%,” a succinct endorsement of that probabilistic view.

Beyond positioning, Thompson ties the crypto setup to a macro backdrop he repeatedly characterizes as “goldilocks.” In late summer time, he and Felix Jauvin mentioned gold’s bull case on Forward Guidance; that thesis, Thompson says, crystallized when a extensively circulated picture confirmed Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and Narendra Modi clasping palms on the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit.

“When this image leaked it was nail within the coffin and the obvious purchase gold sign you possibly can get after its 4–5 month consolidation,” he wrote, arguing that Bitcoin now sits in an identical posture after a ~10-month consolidation.

“Basically getting the identical factor now… Don’t miss the forest for the timber,” pointing to Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong’s policy-push put up. “Heading to D.C. tomorrow, excited to roll up our sleeves with key determination makers to get market construction to @POTUS’s desk”—as a part of a constructive structural backdrop for US market plumbing.

At press time, BTC traded at $109,101.

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