Is The Dogecoin Bull Run Over? Analyst Sees Echoes Of 2021

Cantonese Cat argues that Dogecoin stays structurally primed for a late-cycle surge that will monitor the sample of prior crypto bull markets, insisting that the coin’s decisive transfer has not but arrived. In a 50-minute market evaluation printed on Oct. 19, the analyst ties Dogecoin’s setup to liquidity cycles and inter-market alerts, however emphasizes that the DOGE learn is straightforward: the market hasn’t seen the attribute Dogecoin breakout that, in previous cycles, has coincided with Bitcoin’s remaining acceleration.

“Whenever you’ve Bitcoin going up, Dogecoin is also forming a fairly first rate base,” he said, noting that DOGE has participated solely marginally whereas Bitcoin has floor greater. The set off, in his view, is specific. “Once you’ve Doge breaking into all-time high… that may occur in a rush… after getting Doge breaking [its] all-time high, usually that’s when the acceleration section of Bitcoin begins.” He frames that relationship as a recurring function of cycle dynamics slightly than an exception, arguing that the absence of a Dogecoin all-time-high breakout is one in every of a number of causes he rejects the thesis that the broader crypto cycle has already ended.

Is The Dogecoin Bull Run Over?

Cantonese Cat hyperlinks that decision to the broader backdrop of danger urge for food and liquidity, however he repeatedly narrows the lens to DOGE itself. He characterizes current worth motion as a wear-you-out section—punctuated by a pointy deleveraging “final week… with a giant big wick”—that has hardened bearish sentiment with out invalidating the longer-term construction. “We haven’t had Doge breaking the all-time high but… We have the deleveraging occasion, however we haven’t had [the] breakout into all-time high,” he stated, including that the coin’s base-building is in keeping with how earlier cycles have unfolded earlier than fast upside.

Part of his conviction stems from how he reads Bitcoin dominance and the timing of altcoin rotations. He argues that dominance has run for “2022, 2023, 2024, virtually the majority of 2025,” seems to be “a bit bit drained,” and has been transferring sideways for roughly a yr. In his framework, a flip decrease in dominance wouldn’t essentially imply Bitcoin weak spot; slightly, it could suggest outperformance by altcoins.

“If we finish the cycle proper right here… this would be the very first time ever that we haven’t had any rotations from Bitcoin to altcoins and we haven’t had that parabolic section—and this time can be totally different.” He is specific that he doesn’t purchase the “this time is totally different” narrative, stating, “I simply don’t actually assume that the cycle is totally different from [the] earlier [one]… as a result of issues are nonetheless taking part in out.”

The Dogecoin-specific takeaway is that the market’s current stress doesn’t negate the historic sequencing he expects. He argues that the coin’s signature transfer sometimes arrives after extended compression, typically in a condensed window.

“Last time [it] solely occurred inside like a pair months and subsequent factor it’s identical to whoa what occurred,” he recalled, cautioning that DOGE’s acceleration window can open shortly as soon as resistance offers method. That sample recognition underpins his pushback towards entrenched pessimism: “Lots of people are simply extraordinarily bitter about Doge as a result of this cycle has been carrying everyone out,” he stated, however he views that sentiment as typical of pre-breakout circumstances slightly than proof of structural failure.

Cantonese Cat repeatedly stresses that he’s not giving monetary recommendation and permits that his name might be flawed. Still, he returns to the identical fulcrum: Dogecoin hasn’t delivered the hallmark occasion of a accomplished cycle.

Until it does—or definitively fails—he treats the coin as coiled slightly than concluded. “The actuality [is], I simply don’t actually assume that the cycle is totally different… We haven’t had that [DOGE] breakout,” he stated, summing up the risk-on bias that animates his view. In different phrases, for merchants positioning round late-cycle outcomes, his message is that the “Dogecoin second” stays forward of the tape—and that the bears might be early.

DOGE Is Price Targets

Although the analyst doesn’t cite recent DOGE targets within the Oct. 19 video, he defers to ranges from his earlier work, the place he laid out a number of price-target frameworks for Dogecoin. In these prior notes, he argued that DOGE might be entering Wave 3 of an Elliott Wave structure after reclaiming the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the earlier impulse ($0.20088).

From that framework, he highlighted upside projections round $0.48 (1.0 extension), $0.89 (1.272), $1.23 (1.414), and $1.96 (1.618). In variant commentary, he has additionally floated outcomes $2.00+ if a breakout accelerates, and in a extra speculative situation—doubtless from a separate video—he stated, “I’m going to put down the case as to why I feel DOGE can hit $4 this cycle…”.

At press time, DOGE traded at $0.201.