Is the US Dollar Index (DXY) Headed Higher After a 15-Year Trendline Retest?
The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades close to 100.2 after retesting an ascending trendline that has supported it since May 2011. A resistance zone at 100.5 nonetheless caps the restoration.
BeInCrypto examined the month-to-month, weekly, and each day charts to map the subsequent possible transfer. The Federal Reserve (Fed) assembly on June 16-17 might resolve the route.
US Dollar Index Defends a Trendline That Has Held Since 2011
The month-to-month chart reveals an ascending trendline that has outlined the greenback’s long-term route since May 2011. The line was virtually retested in June 2014 and confirmed once more in June 2021.
In February 2026, the index returned to this line as soon as extra. So far, the degree has held.
The broader construction additionally stays constructive. DXY has printed a collection of upper lows and better highs over the previous 15 years, together with the 2022 peak close to 115.
If the trendline holds, the present retest might grow to be the subsequent larger low. A repeat of earlier cycles might then push the index above 115.
Dollar energy issues for crypto buyers due to Bitcoin’s (BTC) long-running inverse correlation with DXY. However, the month-to-month relative energy index (RSI) stays impartial and alerts no clear momentum.
Weekly Chart Still Treats the Recovery as a Correction
The weekly timeframe complicates the bullish image. DXY climbed in a parabolic run from December 2020 till September 2022, peaking at 114.80. The breakdown from that parabola began a lengthy distribution interval and a downtrend.
Within that downtrend, the index printed a swing high close to 110.18 in early 2025. The decline that adopted bottomed at 95.55.
From this attitude, the ongoing restoration appears to be like like a correction somewhat than a new uptrend. The key space sits close to 99.5 to 100, the place former help has became resistance.
A weekly shut above this zone would validate the bullish breakout state of affairs. A rejection, in distinction, would possible resume the slide again to 95.55. Meanwhile, the weekly RSI reads 57, which signifies impartial momentum.
DXY Price Prediction Hinges on the 100.5 Resistance Zone
The each day chart gives the most detailed view of the battle. A help space close to 97.5 has been retested twice, forming a double backside or W sample.
The measured goal of this formation sits at 101.07, practically 1% above the present value. However, the sample stays unconfirmed. Resistance at 100.4 to 100.5 nonetheless caps the index, and DXY was rejected from this zone twice in March.
A second construction provides a bearish angle. Recent value motion has fashioned an ascending wedge, a sample that sometimes resolves downward. Its goal lies close to 98.5, roughly 1.7% beneath present ranges. That goal coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at 98.547.
The each day RSI stands at 67 and approaches the overbought threshold of 70. Because the wedge’s higher band overlaps the resistance zone, a rejection on the first try appears to be like possible.
Analysts have lately known as DXY the most correct macro indicator for Bitcoin’s route, so crypto merchants ought to watch these ranges intently.
The Fed’s June 16-17 assembly is the nearest catalyst, with markets nonetheless pricing a doable fee hike in December. A each day shut above 100.5 would open the path to 101.07 and revive the long-term rebound thesis, whereas a wedge breakdown would expose 98.5 first.
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