Is This the Last Dip? Crucial Bitcoin Indicator Points to Final Capitulation Phase

Continued resistance has saved Bitcoin buying and selling inside the $66,000-$68,000 vary. As sentiment stays fragile, a technical sign seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022 has reappeared.

However, this may very well be a serious accumulation alternative for long-term buyers.

“Golden Opportunity”

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez has identified a recurring technical sign tied to Bitcoin’s historic cycle bottoms, centered on the crossover between the 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) on the 3-day chart. This crossover has constantly appeared close to the last section of bear markets since 2014, which has led to the final main capitulation earlier than a brand new bull cycle begins.

During the 2014 cycle, Bitcoin had already fallen 72% from its peak when the crossover fashioned in December, adopted by an extra 52% decline inside 23 days that marked the final backside. In 2018 as effectively, the sample repeated after a 67% drawdown, with the crossover showing in November and a last 50% drop occurring 33 days later.

The 2022 cycle additionally confirmed an analogous construction, as a 50% decline preceded the crossover in May and an extra 45% drop inside 33 days, though a secondary decrease low fashioned 156 days later, which accomplished the broader bear market construction. In the present cycle, following the October 2025 peak, Bitcoin has already recorded a 52% correction, and the SMA crossover appeared on February 27, 2026.

As of now, roughly 30 days have handed since this sign emerged, which locations the market inside the historic window the place earlier cycles skilled their last leg down. Martinez noticed that if historic patterns proceed to maintain, Bitcoin may very well be getting into what he describes as the “last accumulation window” inside a matter of days.

Based on prior post-crossover declines ranging between 40% and 50%, he identifies potential accumulation zones round $40,000, which represents a extra average reset, and a deeper washout situation of $30,000. While the sign doesn’t assure an extra decline, in earlier situations, it has coincided with the final important downward transfer earlier than the formation of a long-term macro backside and the transition into a brand new bull market section.

Bear Market Targets

Extending the draw back outlook, on-chain analyst Willy Woo estimated that Bitcoin might backside between $46,000 and $54,000 based mostly on legacy valuation fashions. The CVDD Floor, presently close to $45,500, continues to rise and acts as a help benchmark. He additionally discovered that capital flowing into Bitcoin has been declining since November amid weakening demand. These fashions are based mostly on a small variety of previous bear markets that occurred beneath favorable macro situations. As such, a weaker international backdrop might push the crypto asset beneath these projected ranges.

A deeper draw back vary has been predicted by Doctor Profit, who positioned the possible backside between $35,000 and $45,000. He said that the market has not but reached its cycle low. Short-term upside towards the $79,000 to $84,000 vary stays potential. However, such strikes are seen as non permanent and extra appropriate for brief positioning.

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