JPMorgan Gives Bold Nvidia Stock Price Target, But Market’s Not Buying It
NVIDIA Stock simply delivered a record-breaking This fall with $68.1 billion in income, 73% year-over-year development, and earnings per share of $1.62 that crushed estimates. JPMorgan, amongst others, wasted no time elevating its value goal from $250 to $265.
Yet on February 26, the inventory fell almost 7% from its session high of $197 to underneath $185. The outcomes are plain. But the value motion, the cash circulation, and the institutional habits inform a really completely different story. At least, for now.
The Numbers Look Bulletproof, Until You Look Closer
NVIDIA’s Q4 numbers speak for themselves. Revenue hit $68.1 billion, up 73% year-over-year. The knowledge heart section alone pulled in $62.3 billion, making up 91% of complete income. EPS (Earnings Per Share) of $1.62 beat the $1.53 consensus by almost 6%.
And the Q1 FY2027 steerage of $78 billion blew previous Wall Street’s $72.8 billion estimate — a determine that notably excludes any income from China.
JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur responded by lifting the Nvidia value goal from $250 to $265.
But here’s what most analysts are usually not highlighting. NVIDIA’s quarter-over-quarter growth rate is quietly decelerating. Q3 grew 22% over Q2. This fall grew 19.5% over Q3.
The Q1 steerage implies roughly 14.5% sequential development. Revenue retains hitting information, however the tempo of acceleration is fading. For a inventory priced on development momentum, this distinction issues. Something huge cash may be watching.
There can also be the query of who is definitely driving this income. Deepwater Asset Management’s Gene Munster estimates that roughly 70% of Nvidia’s income comes from simply 8 corporations.
CFO Colette Kress confirmed that the top 5 hyperscalers (cloud computing providers) account for slightly over 50% of data center revenue. That degree of buyer focus signifies that even a modest 10-15% discount in AI capex from just a few main consumers may translate into billions in misplaced quarterly income.
It can also be value noting that JPMorgan’s asset administration division is itself a major institutional holder of Nvidia.
This is normal on Wall Street, however it’s a context that retail buyers ought to pay attention to when evaluating the bullishness behind a value goal improve.
What Retail NVDA Investors See vs What Institutions Are Doing
On-Balance Volume (OBV), an indicator that tracks cumulative shopping for and promoting stress by including quantity on up days and subtracting it on down days, tells a constructive story on the floor.
OBV has maintained increased highs all through Nvidia’s 3-month consolidation, suggesting retail-driven shopping for stress stays constantly constructive. However, it nonetheless wants to interrupt previous its ascending trendline resistance to verify real broad-based power.
The most up-to-date 13F filings (quarterly reviews giant buyers should file with the SEC revealing their positions) for This fall 2025 present a dramatic shift in institutional sentiment.
Net institutional cash circulation surged to roughly $149 billion in purchases in opposition to $36 billion in gross sales — a web influx of roughly $113 billion. That is an enormous enchancment from Q3, the place establishments purchased $38 billion and offered $34 billion, leaving a web influx of simply $4 billion.
Yet regardless of this wall of institutional cash coming into NVDA in This fall, the inventory barely moved — buying and selling sideways for many of the interval. That suggests establishments have been accumulating, however provide from insiders and earlier holders absorbed the demand. NVIDIA director Mark Stevens sold approximately $40 million in shares in December.
Bank of America, while slightly increasing its equity stake, closed out both its call and put options positions entirely — neutralizing its directional bets.
Institutions are clearly positioned. But the hedging and the flat value regardless of large inflows recommend they’re bracing for one thing. The subsequent part explores what that may be.
The Risk Hiding within the Charts
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), an indicator that measures whether or not cash is flowing into or out of a inventory based mostly on the place the value closes inside its day by day vary weighted by quantity, reveals what the earnings headline doesn’t.
Since February 5, as the suitable shoulder of Nvidia’s inverse head and shoulders sample fashioned, CMF climbed steadily alongside the value. It rose all the way in which into the February 25 earnings breakout when Nvidia briefly touched $197.
Then on February 26, because the inventory reversed sharply to $185, CMF plunged.
That sudden collapse suggests the cash flowing in through the rally was speculative positioning — not dedicated institutional capital — and it evaporated the second the breakout failed. And based mostly on what we mentioned earlier, income deceleration may very well be a motive.
The month-to-month VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price, which approximates the place establishments have constructed their positions) reinforces this. NVIDIA had been buying and selling above its month-to-month VWAP since breaking out on February 17.
The final time Nvidia broke beneath the month-to-month VWAP was on January 30, which led to a correction of roughly 8.5% by early February.
As of February 26, the inventory has as soon as once more fallen beneath this line. This means current institutional consumers at the moment are underwater, which traditionally triggers additional promoting as cease losses unwind.
The technical breakdown has context. Michael Burry flagged today that Nvidia’s supply commitments have ballooned to ranges that mirror Cisco earlier than the dot-com bust — an organization that wrote down billions when demand didn’t meet expectations.
CFO Kress acknowledged Nvidia has locked in inventory “further out in time than usual.” Bulls like BofA’s Vivek Arya argue this secures Nvidia’s dominance. But CMF collapsing and VWAP breaking on the identical day suggests the market isn’t ready to seek out out who’s proper.
The NVIDIA Stock Price Levels That Decide What Happens Next
The charts, the cash circulation, and the institutional positioning all level to the identical conclusion — $195 is the place conviction will get examined, a degree highlighted afterward the chart. But first, the chance.
On the day by day chart, a hidden bearish divergence has fashioned between November 10 and February 25. During this era, the NVIDIA inventory value made a decrease high whereas the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator, made the next high
It is a sign that upward momentum is quietly fading even because the inventory seems to carry its vary.
Since that November divergence began growing, Nvidia has been locked between $169 and $199. It couldn’t escape of this consolidation regardless of a number of makes an attempt — together with the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout on February 25, which failed inside 24 hours.
The Fibonacci extension ranges from the sample now body what comes subsequent. On the draw back, $183 on the 0.5 degree is the speedy help. Below that, $180 on the 0.382 degree turns into important — a break there exposes $170, the suitable shoulder low, and $169, the pinnacle. Those ranges would invalidate the sample solely.
On the upside, the neckline at $195 stays the important thing resistance and the conviction tester. A clear day by day shut above it, which the NVIDIA inventory did not do yesterday, is required to reactivate the sample.
That may push it in direction of the projected goal at $226, the total head-to-neckline measurement.
The subsequent extension at $235 brings it nearer to JPMorgan’s $265 target. The path exists on paper.
But as the cash circulation, the hidden bearish divergence, and immediately’s 7% rejection all verify, this can be a market that’s not shopping for it but.
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