Kalshi Hits $1B on Winner Market as Prediction Sites Continue to Gain Daily Active Users During World Cup

Kalshi and Polymarket continued gaining each day lively customers later within the World Cup after conventional sportsbook apps peaked early within the match, in accordance to new cellular app knowledge from Apptopia.

The report comes as Kalshi’s FIFA World Cup winner market topped $1 billion in buying and selling quantity, giving the prediction market platform a significant milestone throughout one of many greatest sports activities occasions on the calendar. 

Apptopia, a cellular app analytics agency that tracks downloads and app engagement, discovered that DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars all hit their June each day lively person highs on June 15, 4 days into the World Cup. Each sportsbook app then declined by month-end, whereas Kalshi and Polymarket continued including each day customers.

“The sportsbooks received a pointy, early spike,” Apptopia’s Adam Blacker wrote. “The prediction markets received a construct.”

Kalshi, Polymarket gained lively customers after sportsbooks peaked

Apptopia’s July 6 report checked out app exercise throughout DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, Kalshi and Polymarket, evaluating downloads, each day lively customers, utilization depth, demographics and cross-app overlap throughout June.

By June 30, Kalshi’s each day lively customers had been 36% above their June 15 stage, whereas Polymarket’s had been 12% greater. DraftKings fell 36% from its June 15 peak by June 30, FanDuel fell 41%, and BetMGM and Caesars every declined 32%.

Among the six apps Apptopia studied, whole each day customers had been practically 4 instances greater than final June, largely thanks to surging World Cup curiosity. Kalshi accounted for 38% of that mixed June 2026 viewers, whereas Polymarket accounted for 13%. Last June, the 2 prediction market apps collectively accounted for solely about 6% of the mixed viewers.

The set up knowledge pointed in the identical route. Apptopia’s earlier World Cup monitoring discovered Kalshi and Polymarket accounted for practically three-quarters of betting app downloads during the tournament’s opening stretch. In the July 6 report, the 2 prediction market apps accounted for 78.5% of June installs throughout the six-app group.

Sportsbook customers more and more opened Kalshi

Apptopia’s cross-app knowledge confirmed sportsbook customers more and more sampled Kalshi in the course of the World Cup, whereas the share of Kalshi customers opening sportsbook apps declined.

The share of DraftKings customers who additionally opened Kalshi rose from 12% on June 1 to 17.4% by June 22, in accordance to Apptopia. FanDuel-to-Kalshi overlap rose 35% over the identical stretch.

The reverse move moved in the wrong way. Apptopia discovered that the share of Kalshi customers opening DraftKings or FanDuel declined throughout the identical interval.

“Sportsbook clients are sampling the prediction markets whereas prediction-market clients are staying put,” Blacker wrote.

The one-way visitors challenged an earlier idea that prediction market apps may serve as feeder platforms for novice bettors who finally transfer to extra conventional sportsbook merchandise. Instead, Apptopia stated the June knowledge confirmed sportsbook customers more and more utilizing Kalshi, although it stays unclear whether or not that sample will final past the World Cup.

Women had been Kalshi’s fastest-growing person group

Apptopia stated Kalshi’s World Cup development additionally stood out due to which person teams had been rising quickest. During the match, Kalshi’s weekly lively customers grew throughout all ages bracket, led by customers 46 and older, in accordance to Apptopia. 

The report additionally discovered that Kalshi’s feminine customers grew 106%, greater than twice the 54% development fee amongst male customers.

Kalshi’s newest weekly lively person base was 33.3% feminine, in contrast with 22% to 23% for DraftKings and FanDuel, in accordance to the report.

“DraftKings can personal essentially the most engaged bettor within the nation and nonetheless be shedding the argument for the following one, as a result of the demographic Kalshi is including doesn’t appear to be the bottom the sportsbooks spent a decade buying,” Tom Grant, vp of analysis at Apptopia, stated within the report. 

France leads Kalshi’s World Cup winner market after $1B milestone

After topping $1 billion in buying and selling quantity, Kalshi’s winner market on Monday had France main the platform’s World Cup odds at 33.1%, adopted by Argentina at 17.9%, England at 14.1% and Spain at 12.6%.

The market has shifted as the knockout stage has narrowed the sphere. France has strengthened its place after advancing previous Sweden and Paraguay with out permitting a purpose, whereas England has gained floor in the course of the match, particularly after its huge win in opposition to Mexico on Sunday.

Spain, in the meantime, entered the match as one of many extra closely favored groups on Kalshi however has slipped behind France and Argentina within the winner market. England’s rise has additionally pushed it nearer to Spain, turning the highest of the market right into a tighter group behind France.

That offers Kalshi a high-volume benchmark for a way merchants are pricing the remainder of the World Cup, even as the broader app knowledge reveals prediction market platforms gaining traction past a single contract.

World Cup delivers for sportsbooks and prediction markets

The World Cup has created a near-ideal buyer acquisition second for U.S. sportsbooks and prediction market platforms alike. The match is being performed within the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, putting matches largely inside regular viewing home windows for American customers, whereas the U.S. males’s nationwide group stays alive within the knockout stage, including one other home hook.

For sportsbooks, that has meant main betting curiosity round one of many greatest sports activities occasions of the yr. For prediction market platforms, the match has supplied a distinct type of take a look at: whether or not world soccer curiosity can flip into app downloads, repeat utilization and sustained buying and selling exercise.

Kalshi broke its month-to-month quantity report once more in June, posting greater than $33 billion in notional buying and selling quantity, in accordance to knowledge from Dune Analytics. The World Cup helped drive that report month, with Kalshi’s winner market topping $1 billion as the match moved deeper into the knockout stage.

That makes the World Cup greater than a short-term visitors bump for prediction markets. It has develop into a buyer acquisition take a look at for Kalshi, Polymarket and different platforms attempting to flip sports activities curiosity into repeat buying and selling habits as soon as the match ends.

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