Kalshi Oscars Odds: Best Actor, Actress, Director and Best Picture Right Now

Most of tonight’s Oscar races had been determined weeks in the past — no less than in line with the $120 million sitting in prediction market contracts. The exception is Best Actor, which flipped within the final six hours and nonetheless hasn’t stopped shifting. Kalshi and Polymarket are in shut settlement on most different classes, with Best Supporting Actress the one remaining race the place the market genuinely can’t make up its thoughts, and the sweep contracts pricing One Battle After Another for a dominant evening even when the per-category numbers don’t look overly dramatic.

Combined Oscar quantity throughout Kalshi and Polymarket has crossed $120 million, with Best Picture drawing greater than $52 million between the 2 platforms. The ceremony begins at 7:00 p.m. ET on ABC and Hulu. Conan O’Brien hosts for the second consecutive yr — and sure, there’s a marketplace for what he’ll say.

Key odds as of roughly 3:30 p.m. ET on March 15, 2026, from the DeFi Rate Oscars tracker:

• Best Picture: One Battle After Another 77% (Kalshi) / 79% (Polymarket)
• Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson 93% / 92% — the widest cross-platform consensus on the board
• Best Actor: Michael B. Jordan 61% (Kalshi & Polymarket), main since Mar 7 on $14.9M+ in quantity
• Best Actress: Jessie Buckley 96% (Kalshi) / 97% (Polymarket)
• Best Supporting Actor: Sean Penn 77% / 79%, $10.5M mixed
• Best Supporting Actress: Amy Madigan 57% / 56% — the closest race tonight
• Best Original Screenplay: Sinners 95% (Polymarket), $742K in quantity
• Sweep market: One Battle After Another at 34% to win 6 Oscars tonight

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Note: Kalshi odds can be found to US merchants. Polymarket odds are based mostly on the worldwide web site.

One Battle After Another is pricing like a lock — and the sweep markets agree

One Battle After Another sits at 77% on Kalshi and 79% on Polymarket in Best Picture, with mixed quantity exceeding $52 million — by far the biggest single Oscar contract on both platform. The movie additionally leads Best Adapted Screenplay at 96% (Kalshi) and Best Cinematography at 77% throughout each platforms. Add in Paul Thomas Anderson’s near-certain Best Director win, and the market is successfully calling OBAA the dominant movie of the evening earlier than a single award has been handed out.

The sweep markets make that express. Polymarket’s “what number of Oscars will One Battle After Another win?” contract has 6 wins because the main consequence at 34%. Sinners is priced for 4 wins at 33% — suggesting the market sees a significant OBAA sweep and an honest Sinners comfort haul because the most probably situation. Both outcomes have actual uncertainty connected: 34% and 33% are pluralities, not certainties, and the sphere is broad sufficient that both movie might end above or beneath that focus on.

The Frankenstein sweep contract stands out. Polymarket is at 83% that Frankenstein wins precisely 3 Oscars — a powerful conviction name for a movie that doesn’t lead any of the person class markets seen right here. Technical classes aren’t tracked individually on this board, which is the place movies like Frankenstein have a tendency to gather. Hamnet is at 90% for precisely 1 win, which aligns with its present odds within the appearing and screenplay markets.

Paul Thomas Anderson has essentially the most lopsided race on the board

Best Director has drawn $10.2 million in mixed quantity throughout each platforms, with Anderson at 93% (Kalshi) and 92% (Polymarket) — the tightest cross-platform alignment on the board, and essentially the most one-sided race. Ryan Coogler sits at 9% and Chloé Zhao at 1%. Anderson’s curve has moved virtually solely upward since September with no significant reversal throughout six months of information. At these costs, the market isn’t actually providing a tradeable place in both route.

Best Actor: MBJ leads, however Chalamet continues to be respiration

Michael B. Jordan leads Best Actor at 61% on Kalshi and 61% on Polymarket, on greater than $14.9M in quantity on Kalshi alone. The market has been his since March 7, when Kalshi’s chart reveals MBJ crossing above Timothée Chalamet round 9 a.m. ET — a clear pivot level after Chalamet had held the lead for a lot of the prior month. Chalamet is now at 30%, down 14 factors on the day. Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) sits at 3.9%.

Today’s strikes are acceleration, not the unique flip. Jordan is up 13 factors on the day whereas Chalamet is shedding floor, widening a spot that was already established. At 61/30, Jordan is a significant favourite, however a 30% Chalamet place means the market isn’t treating this as determined — it’s nonetheless essentially the most contested main appearing class on the board tonight.

The appearing classes: largely settled, one exception

Best Actress is essentially the most determined appearing contract on the board. Jessie Buckley sits at 96% (Kalshi) and 97% (Polymarket) on $5.6 million in mixed quantity, with Rose Byrne at 3% and Emma Stone at 1%. Buckley’s chance by no means dropped beneath 75% at any level within the six-month chart window.

Best Supporting Actor has drawn $10.5 million throughout each platforms — the second-largest Oscar pool after Best Picture — with Sean Penn at 77% on Kalshi and 79% on Polymarket. Stellan Skarsgård is at 15% and Delroy Lindo at 8%. Penn briefly misplaced the result in Skarsgård in mid-January earlier than reclaiming it and extending by means of February. At -335, he’s a strong favourite, however this class produced essentially the most fascinating chart motion of any appearing race this season.

Best Supporting Actress is the genuinely shut race tonight. Amy Madigan leads at 57% (Kalshi) and 56% (Polymarket) on $5.5 million in mixed quantity, with Teyana Taylor at 24% and Wunmi Mosaku at 19%. The three-way unfold compressed sharply since late February — Taylor held the lead by means of most of January earlier than Madigan took over. At -133, Madigan is a lean, not a lock, and each platforms agree on that studying.

Screenplay markets: Sinners and OBAA cut up the class

Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay are primarily splitting their frontrunner between the 2 movies. Sinners leads Original Screenplay at 95% on Polymarket on $742K in quantity. One Battle After Another leads Adapted Screenplay at 96% on Kalshi on $842K. Both are high-conviction contracts — neither has a reputable challenger in single digits. Ryan Coogler’s Sinners profitable Original Screenplay whereas shedding Best Picture can be the market’s anticipated consequence, and each trades are priced accordingly.

Mention markets: AI on Kalshi, politics on Polymarket

Kalshi’s Conan O’Brien point out market has AI/Artificial Intelligence at 69% (-223) on $197K in quantity, with Hulu at 55% and Iran at 34%. The Iran time period solely entered the board round March 14 and climbed shortly — late entrants to say markets typically mirror details about deliberate monologue content material, and Conan’s earlier internet hosting turns have leaned into present occasions closely.

Polymarket’s “what will probably be mentioned through the Oscars?” contract tells a unique story. “President” leads at 88% on $1,796 in quantity — a near-lock priced on the idea that somebody on stage will say the phrase in any context. Trump is buying and selling at 58% on $17,493 in quantity, essentially the most liquid time period available in the market. “Chalamet 5+ instances” sits at 56% on $9,640 in quantity, reflecting each his nomination for Marty Supreme and his common movie star presence at this yr’s ceremony. Ukraine is at 54% and Epstein at 45%. The political time period focus is notable: 4 of the 5 most-traded outcomes in a broadcast point out market are explicitly political, which says one thing about what Polymarket merchants count on Conan to spend his monologue on tonight.

Celebrity attendance is a real three-way race

Kalshi’s attendance market has drawn $747K with no clear chief. Connor Storrie tops the board at 29% (+245), adopted by Margot Robbie at 22% and Hailee Steinfeld at 20%. The prime three are separated by fewer than 10 share factors, placing this effectively inside noise vary. Attendance contracts are likely to see sharp strikes within the pink carpet window as sightings and social media confirmations floor. If there’s a late-breaking buying and selling alternative tonight, that is the class to look at.

Ceremony particulars

The 98th Academy Awards airs tonight at 7:00 p.m. ET on ABC and Hulu from the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood. Conan O’Brien hosts for the second consecutive yr. All prediction market costs are as of roughly 3:30 p.m. ET on March 15, 2026. Prices replace constantly and might differ on the time of studying.te constantly and might differ on the time of studying.

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