Kalshi, Polymarket Break Records in $5.9B Week for Prediction Markets
After a busy weekend for NFL buying and selling on Kalshi and Polymarket, each platforms noticed week-over-week will increase in notional quantity to attain new weekly all-time highs. Top prediction market exchanges total reached a brand new high level as nicely, totaling simply shy of $6 billion in notional quantity for the week of Jan. 12-18.
Kalshi’s market share was 35.9% to Polymarket’s 29.3% for the week ending Jan. 18. Here’s a have a look at top-level numbers for the 2 foremost prediction market gamers:
- Kalshi: $2.15 billion (+7.0% WoW)
- Polymarket: $1.76 billion (+16.9% WoW)
Interesting to notice that Kalshi is driving a streak of 13 consecutive weeks of outperforming Polymarket on notional quantity (because the week of Oct. 20), although a few these weeks the 2 had been neck and neck. The final time Polymarket posted larger weekly quantity was Oct. 13-19 when Polymarket had $1.06B to Kalshi’s $950.4M.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket quantity for the week of Jan. 12-18:
Not included in our Notional Volume dashboard is Opinion, which Dune Data exhibits a notional quantity of $1.94 billion (+21.6% WoW).
A fast have a look at the buying and selling class knowledge tells us that Kalshi’s lead over Polymarket is primarily pushed by the platform’s total give attention to sports activities. Of Kalshi’s $2.15 billion notional quantity final week, a whopping $1.95 billion got here from sports activities. The weekend’s 4 NFL divisional spherical playoff video games drove a complete of $258.8 million in notional quantity at Kalshi.
NFL Divisional Round buying and selling quantity at Kalshi:
| Game | Date/Time | Total Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Bills at Broncos | Jan. 17, 4:30 ET | $82,591,388 |
| 49ers at Seahawks | Jan. 17, 8 ET | $69,988,803 |
| Texans at Patriots | Jan. 18, 3 ET | $24,467,389 |
| Rams at Bears | Jan. 18, 6:30 ET | $81,774,498 |
Let’s dig into among the different knowledge of curiosity from the previous week.
Overall platform comparability (week of Jan. 12-18)
Total notional quantity throughout top prediction market platforms is up 14.5% week over week to $5.99 billion, however notice that the platforms which Dune Data is presently monitoring have shifted. Dune eliminated PredictIt from its monitoring this week and added predict.enjoyable and ForecastEx.
Top platforms market share for Jan. 12-18
| Platform | Notional Volume ($) | Market Share | WoW Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | $2,153,060,916 | 35.9% | +7.0% |
| Opinion | $1,941,759,497 | 32.4% | +21.6% |
| Polymarket | $1,758,081,905 | 29.3% | +16.9% |
| predict.enjoyable | $113,624,631 | 1.9% | — |
| Limitless | $18,976,902 | 0.3% | +111.6% |
| ForecastEx | $5,520,486 | 0.1% | — |
| Myriad | $2,350,513 | <0.1% | +27.3% |
| Total | $5,993,374,850 | 100% | +14.5% |
Week-over-week quantity and transactions in contrast
| Platform | Notional Volume ($) | WoW Change | Transactions | WoW Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | $2,153,060,916 | +7.0% | 12,157,112 | +9.7% |
| Opinion | $1,941,759,497 | +21.6% | 603,819 | −11.6% |
| Polymarket | $1,758,081,905 | +16.9% | 12,302,252 | +7.9% |
| predict.enjoyable | $113,624,631 | — | 145,575 | — |
| Limitless | $18,976,902 | +111.6% | 194,743 | +26.4% |
| ForecastEx | $5,520,486 | — | 31,208 | — |
| Myriad | $2,350,513 | +27.3% | 201,283 | +20.7% |
| Total | $5,993,374,850 | +14.5% | 25,635,992 | +8.6% |
Kalshi and Polymarket proceed to point out wholesome progress throughout each notional quantity and weekly transactions, with Polymarket barely edging Kalshi in whole transactions regardless of trailing in quantity.
Weekly customers on the rise at Polymarket
Weekly customers knowledge exhibits Polymarket steadily climbing with extra variance as anticipated for some smaller on-chain platforms. Opinion and Myriad in specific noticed massive drop-offs in weekly customers as famous in the desk under.
| Platform | Weekly Users | WoW Change |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 269,784 | +3.1% |
| Opinion | 46,142 | −21.7% |
| Predict.enjoyable | 8,828 | +9.3% |
| Limitless | 3,695 | −5.3% |
| Myriad | 2,104 | −28.8% |
| *Total | 330,553 | −1.5% |
*Note: Kalshi is excluded from the Dune weekly customers knowledge.
Opinion’s customers dropped 21.7% and transactions are down 11.6% WoW whereas its quantity jumped 21.6%, that means common transaction measurement elevated considerably. However, it’s potential that different noise like wash buying and selling and a number of wallets are skewing these numbers.
Sports vs. the remainder: Category breakdowns for week of Jan. 12
Sports stay the important thing driver of progress on each of the highest platforms, although they make up a a lot larger share of whole market quantity on Kalshi. Last week, sports activities quantity at Kalshi rose 6.2% WoW, however made up a barely decrease total share of whole notional quantity (90.4% in comparison with 91.1%).
While sports activities proceed to dominate, crypto and politics classes each noticed massive WoW will increase in whole quantity (up 27.6% and 68.5%, respectively) to make up a better share of the general combine. Still, no single class exterior of sports activities is producing greater than 4% of whole quantity on the Kalshi platform.
Kalshi class breakdown week over week
| Category | Jan 5-11 Volume | Jan 12-18 Volume | WoW Change | Jan 5-11 Share | Jan 12-18 Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | $1,832,116,143 | $1,946,157,840 | +6.2% | 91.1% | 90.4% |
| Crypto | $58,637,180 | $74,836,416 | +27.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% |
| Politics | $27,396,302 | $46,172,705 | +68.5% | 1.4% | 2.1% |
| Mentions | $28,061,538 | $26,319,007 | −6.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% |
| Climate and Weather | $24,823,351 | $20,218,176 | −18.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| Economics | $11,538,566 | $13,598,319 | +17.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| Entertainment | $16,616,858 | $11,809,589 | −28.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Financials | $6,615,450 | $6,076,108 | −8.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Companies | $1,536,236 | $3,106,131 | +102.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Elections | $1,151,059 | $2,225,955 | +93.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Science and Technology | $1,908,675 | $1,793,605 | −6.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Other | $1,605,199 | $747,065 | −53.5% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Total | $2,012,006,557 | $2,153,060,916 | +7.0% | 100% | 100% |
At Polymarket, sports activities and politics stay the core quantity drivers, with crypto and “Trump” classes additionally making up a good portion of whole notional quantity. Note: We will replace with Polymarket’s class breakdown knowledge as soon as it’s out there.
The put up Kalshi, Polymarket Break Records in $5.9B Week for Prediction Markets appeared first on DeFi Rate.
