Kalshi, Polymarket Capture Nearly Three-Quarters Of Betting App Downloads During World Cup Surge
Kalshi and Polymarket captured nearly three-quarters of recent installs amongst main sportsbook and prediction market apps within the first half of June, based on new Apptopia knowledge.
The World Cup helped flip a usually quiet stretch for sports activities betting apps into a serious acquisition window for prediction market platforms. The two prediction market apps mixed for a 73.5% share of recent installs from June 1-15, with Kalshi at 42.3% and Polymarket at 31.2%, based on Apptopia. DraftKings adopted at 13.7%, whereas FanDuel had 8.9%.
“The sportsbooks are defending a base they spent years and lots of advertising and marketing {dollars} to accumulate, and the World Cup is displaying up for them as reactivation greater than contemporary signups,” Tom Grant, Apptopia’s vice chairman of analysis, stated within the report. “We’ve discovered Kalshi is generally pulling in individuals who by no means opened a sportsbook account, which is a unique and arguably extra sturdy person to accumulate.”
Prediction markets push World Cup
The obtain surge got here as prediction market operators leaned closely into World Cup buying and selling. Kalshi has listed its app as “Kalshi: Trade the Cup” on each Apple’s App Store and Google Play, signed a sponsorship settlement with the Argentine Football Association, and promoted the partnership via a social media marketing campaign that includes famous person Lionel Messi.
Polymarket U.S. additionally launched a World Cup buying and selling hub in its app forward of the match because it continues including customers after opening signups extra broadly following an preliminary waitlist interval.
The knowledge offers one of many clearest mobile-adoption snapshots but of how prediction markets are coming into the sports activities betting app race. It additionally comes throughout a World Cup push that has proven up in buying and selling exercise, with DeFi Rate’s newest volume report discovering Kalshi posted a weekly document $6.38 billion in notional quantity for the week of June 8, up 43% from the prior week, as World Cup group-stage buying and selling helped drive the platform’s first billion-dollar days.
Prediction market apps lead new installs
“Introducing Kalshi and Polymarket adjustments issues,” Apptopia wrote within the report.
The download-share hole was stark within the comparability from Apptopia, a cell analytics supplier whose obtain, month-to-month lively person, and time-spent knowledge is obtainable via the Bloomberg Terminal. Kalshi’s 42.3% share of recent installs was greater than triple DraftKings’ 13.7% share, whereas Polymarket’s 31.2% was greater than 3 times FanDuel’s 8.9%.
The chart in contrast chosen main on-line sportsbook and prediction market apps, together with:
- Kalshi
- Polymarket
- DraftKings Sportsbook
- FanDuel Sportsbook
- BetMGM Sportsbook
- Caesars Sportsbook
Apptopia stated it didn’t embody DraftKings’ and FanDuel’s standalone prediction market apps as a result of these merchandise are comparatively small and prediction markets at the moment are options inside the businesses’ basic sportsbook apps. Because Polymarket doesn’t rank on Google Play attributable to a low ranking, Apptopia primarily based the download-share chart on iOS knowledge. That means the comparability doesn’t seize complete U.S. cell downloads throughout each main app shops.
World Cup lifts day by day lively customers
The app utilization surge started across the opening stretch of the World Cup, which kicked off June 11 in Mexico City. Polymarket hit all-time highs for cell app day by day lively customers (DAU) on June 13, 14 and 15, based on Apptopia. Kalshi reached its all-time high in cell DAU on June 14 and 15.
The timing issues as a result of early June is normally a slower window for U.S. sports activities betting apps. The greatest U.S. betting drivers are inclined to cluster round soccer season, March Madness, and different main home sports activities occasions. By June, the NFL and faculty soccer are months away, the NCAA basketball match is over, and sportsbooks are normally working with a thinner major-event calendar.
The World Cup modified that seasonal sample. Apptopia stated mixed person periods throughout sportsbook and prediction market apps rose 35% within the first half of June in comparison with the identical interval in 2025. Kalshi and Polymarket went from lower than 6% of the group’s mixed day by day lively customers final June to roughly 45% this yr, displaying how rapidly prediction market apps have gained floor throughout main sports activities occasions.
Apptopia pointed to the World Cup and a extra compelling NBA Finals as the principle drivers of the broader elevate. But the prediction market good points stand out as a result of Kalshi and Polymarket are newer to sports-focused cell customers, giving the match extra room to drive first-time app discovery and repeated cell exercise.
Kalshi drew extra first-time customers
The World Cup introduced several types of customers to prediction market and sportsbook apps in its opening days. In the primary 72 hours after the match started, greater than half of Kalshi customers have been new to the app, based on Apptopia. DraftKings and FanDuel, in contrast, noticed solely a few quarter of their audiences come from first-time app customers throughout the identical window.
Apptopia outlined new customers as those that had by no means had a session earlier than June 11. Resurrected customers have been customers who had been inactive for no less than 30 days earlier than returning through the match’s first 72 hours. Already lively customers had used the app throughout the 30 days main as much as the World Cup.
That break up helps clarify why the identical World Cup surge meant various things throughout the app class. For DraftKings and FanDuel, the match helped reactivate present sportsbook customers round a serious world occasion. For Kalshi, the early person combine recommended the match was bringing in individuals who hadn’t used the app earlier than as the corporate tried to introduce sports activities occasion contracts to a wider viewers.
World Cup surge assessments retention
Apptopia’s age knowledge in its newest report factors to a different cause prediction markets are drawing consideration from sportsbook operators. Users ages 18-25 have been the fastest-growing phase for Kalshi, DraftKings and FanDuel, based on the report. Kalshi had the very best proportion of customers in that youngest bracket, though every app nonetheless had its largest share of customers within the 46-and-older group. The age comparability is affected by eligibility guidelines. Kalshi and Polymarket settle for customers 18 and older, whereas main sportsbook apps are usually restricted to customers 21 and up, giving prediction market apps entry to some customers within the 18-25 vary that sportsbooks can not serve.
The World Cup report builds on earlier Apptopia data displaying Kalshi’s app momentum round main sports activities home windows. Apptopia reported earlier this yr that Kalshi had greater than 3 million U.S. downloads in January, as curiosity within the NFL playoffs and Super Bowl helped push the app previous one of the best month-to-month obtain totals of DraftKings and FanDuel. The newest report exhibits that momentum is extending into the World Cup, this time with Polymarket additionally taking a big share of recent installs amongst main betting and prediction market apps.
The subsequent query is whether or not the World Cup surge turns into sturdy utilization after the match. For sportsbooks, the occasion helped reactivate customers throughout a seasonally sluggish interval within the U.S. sports activities calendar. For Kalshi and Polymarket, the larger alternative is changing first-time app customers into repeat sports activities merchants because the calendar shifts again towards home sports activities.
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