Kalshi, Polymarket Combine for $17.9B February Volume as Polymarket Closes Gap

Total notional quantity throughout tracked prediction exchanges rebounded to $5.80 billion for the week of Feb. 23–March 1, a ten.4% acquire from the $5.25 billion posted the prior week. The headline soar tells a part of the story however the internals inform the remainder. Polymarket surged 31.9% to $2.40 billion — its largest weekly exhibiting since Jan. 26–Feb. 1 — whereas Kalshi posted a extra regular 5.4% acquire to $2.73 billion.

DeFi Rate’s prediction market tracker, which aggregates reside knowledge throughout platforms, recorded 44.4 million transactions for the week throughout Kalshi and Polymarket, with Polymarket accounting for 24.6 million of them, a notable lead over Kalshi’s 18.7 million.

Two catalysts drove the week. Trump’s State of the Union deal with on Feb. 24 generated greater than $17 million in mixed point out quantity throughout each platforms. Then, U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, and the following Khamenei market controversy, despatched geopolitical buying and selling into overdrive within the ultimate days of the reporting interval.

February closed at $22.3 billion in whole notional quantity throughout all tracked platforms, the second-highest month on file and the primary month-to-month decline since August 2025.

*Note: Industry knowledge totals solely embrace platforms at present tracked by Dune.

Despite the general tracked platform decline, each Kalshi and Polymarket posted gentle MoM will increase over January:

• Kalshi: $9.93 billion in February (+3.9% MoM)
• Polymarket: $7.94 billion in February (+3.7% MoM)

Kalshi vs. Polymarket: The hole narrows to its tightest in six weeks

The Polymarket surge didn’t simply transfer the weekly whole; it additionally basically compressed the aggressive dynamic between the 2 prime platforms. Kalshi’s share of mixed Okay+P quantity fell from 58.7% the prior week to 53.2% this week, the tightest it has been within the six-week monitoring window.

That marks a significant reversal. From Feb. 2 by Feb. 22, Kalshi held a mean share of 58.1% of mixed quantity, buoyed by its sports activities dominance by and after the Super Bowl. This week, Polymarket added $580 million in absolute quantity WoW. Kalshi added roughly $139 million. The result’s a niche of $329 million that’s lower than half the $770 million unfold from the prior week.

Whether this week marks a structural shift or a one-week occasion spike is the important thing query heading into March. SOTU and Iran contracts are episodic, however main season and month-to-month FOMC selections might assist maintain Polymarket’s non-sports benefit.

Polymarket’s 32% surge

The magnitude of Polymarket’s weekly acquire traces to an uncommon collision of political and geopolitical catalysts.

The first was the State of the Union. Kalshi and Polymarket combined for more than $17 million simply in SOTU-specific “What will Trump say” point out market quantity, with Kalshi’s market drawing $11.97 million in quantity. Mention markets convert informal viewers into lively merchants at scale, and Tuesday evening’s speech delivered proof of idea at eight-figure quantity.

The second catalyst was tougher to anticipate. U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, and the following affirmation of Ayatollah Khamenei’s dying, triggered a surge in geopolitical buying and selling on each platforms on the ultimate day of the month (Saturday). Polymarket’s Iran-related contracts — working exterior U.S. CFTC jurisdiction — gathered over $200 million in quantity throughout 4 markets, based on our reporting on the Kalshi and Polymarket Khamenei market dispute. Kalshi’s equal “out of workplace” contract noticed greater than $54.5 million in quantity earlier than buying and selling was halted Saturday afternoon and positions have been settled on the final traded worth earlier than dying. The Saturday morning army strike, specifically, accounted for a big share of Polymarket’s $580 million WoW quantity acquire.

Kalshi vs. Polymarket class breakdown

Meanwhile, the class breakdown throughout Kalshi and Polymarket continues to point out differentiation between the 2 platforms. A whopping 76.1% of Kalshi’s $2.73 billion quantity final week got here from Sports. Only 34.5% of Polymarket’s $2.40 billion was pushed by Sports. That 41.6 proportion factors hole is the defining structural distinction between the 2 platforms proper now.

Polymarket’s large three: Sports (34.5%), Crypto (29.6%), and Politics together with Trump markets (32.6%) account for 96.7% of all Polymarket quantity. By distinction, Kalshi’s non-sports quantity is unfold throughout 14 classes, none of which individually breaks 10%.

The SOTU impression: Kalshi’s Politics class hit $115.5 million (4.2% of its whole) and Polymarket’s mixed Politics + Trump got here in at $783.0 million (32.6%) final week. The point out market and attendance contract exercise from Feb. 24 was a key driver of each spikes relative to prior weeks.

Kalshi’s Exotics ($152.3M, 5.6%), which has no direct Polymarket equal, is the second-largest non-sports class on Kalshi and price watching as a differentiator heading into March Madness. While but to acquire affirmation, this class probably consists of markets like combos (AKA parlays), or advanced trades past easy binary sure/no markets.

Mention markets on Kalshi logged $23.4 million (0.9%): While modest in isolation, point out markets are gaining in curiosity, particularly round marquee occasions. If the class sustains that form of per-event quantity by main season, it might develop into a structurally vital non-sports line.

Top markets to shut out February

The State of the Union was a quantity driver final week, however perhaps much more importantly a headline driver. FOMC coverage or fed price markets additionally remained lively throughout each platforms. With the subsequent Fed choice scheduled for March 18–19, odds for no rate cut in March have been buying and selling above 96% on each Kalshi and Polymarket, reflecting constant cross-platform alignment on the near-term price path.

Meanwhile, large NBA matchups and remoted soccer and faculty basketball video games proceed to hold Kalshi’s sports activities quantity for the time being. And don’t underestimate the curiosity in golf, together with one-off PGA occasions just like the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches that simply wrapped on Sunday and drew a powerful $42.6 million whole quantity at Kalshi.

Iran geopolitical contracts closed the week as the highest-volume single-event cluster. Polymarket’s Iran-related contracts gathered over $200 million throughout 4 markets within the 48 hours surrounding Feb. 28 and adopted with extra allegations of insider buying and selling. Kalshi’s “Khamenei out” contract drew greater than $50 million earlier than buying and selling was halted and positions settled on the final traded worth earlier than dying — a decision strategy that reignited calls for extra clear market standards.

Full platform comparability: Week of Feb. 23

Kalshi and Polymarket’s features got here on the expense of the remainder of the sector. Opinion fell 40.0% to $362.5 million — its lowest weekly posting since early January — and predict.enjoyable dropped 21.4% to $173.2 million. Both declines probably relate to the character of the buying and selling quantity on these onchain platforms, which we have now previously flagged probably incorporates an outsized quantity of wash buying and selling. The sports activities calendar scaling down between the Super Bowl and Selection Sunday is also a contributing issue.

Here’s a take a look at the total prediction market platform quantity comparability for the week of Feb. 23-March 1:

*Other consists of Limitless, Myriad, ForecastEx, and different tracked platforms. WoW comparability unreliable resulting from shifting composition of the Dune “Other” grouping.

February 2026 in context

February’s $22.3 billion quantity represents a MoM decline of −14.5% however the calendar-adjusted quantity is extra instructive, since February has 28 days and January has 31. On a per-day foundation, February ran roughly $795 million versus January’s $840 million, for a −5.4% per-day decline that appears significantly much less dramatic than the headline determine.

Other consists of Overtime, Limitless, Myriad, ForecastEx, and different tracked platforms.

The February platform comparability has a pair key threads value noting. First, Kalshi and Polymarket each grew MoM. Kalshi posted $9.93 billion (+3.9% vs. January), and Polymarket posted $7.94 billion (+3.7%). These two platforms, which now account for 80.3% of all tracked February quantity, have been web constructive for the month by each measure.

The sub-narrative and the rationale for the general MoM decline comes from Opinion’s obvious quantity collapse. Their $8.08 billion January determine, which was probably pushed by inflated or synthetic quantity knowledge, fell to $3.11 billion in February, a 61.5% decline. The February headline decline is basically an Opinion story wrapped in combination numbers.

predict.enjoyable, which shares possession ties with Opinion, confirmed 37.2% MoM progress to $784.0 million — however we’ll proceed to interpret these figures with warning.

One transaction-layer dynamic is value flagging. Polymarket processed 80.7 million February transactions in opposition to Kalshi’s 70.8 million — the primary time Polymarket has led Kalshi in month-to-month transaction rely within the present monitoring interval. Kalshi leads on quantity ($9.9B to $7.9B) whereas Polymarket leads on frequency. That divergence might point out a structural distinction value monitoring: Kalshi seems to skew towards fewer, bigger positions whereas Polymarket is exhibiting extra high-frequency, smaller-size buying and selling.

What comes subsequent: Trading occasions and belief points

The week of March 2 opens with prediction markets at a transparent inflection level — and never totally for causes the business would have chosen.

The Khamenei episode instantly turned some of the scrutinized moments in prediction market historical past. Senators led by Adam Schiff have set a March 9 deadline for CFTC Chairman Michael Selig to answer calls for a ban on contracts that resolve on or correlate to a person’s dying. Senator Chris Murphy has introduced plans for laws concentrating on markets he considers vulnerable to insider exploitation. Rajiv Sethi’s analysis through Substack provides a wrinkle to that debate: even last-trade-price decision doesn’t totally shut the door on insider revenue, as a result of a well-positioned dealer can drive costs earlier than the occasion and nonetheless extract significant acquire with out a binary payout. The problem isn’t simply which contracts to permit. It’s whether or not any design could make these markets genuinely proof against exploitation by folks with advance data of the result.

The regulatory stress is not coming from one path. Also on March 2, Mick Mulvaney — Trump’s former White House chief of employees — launched a coalition referred to as Gambling Is Not Investing particularly concentrating on sports-based occasion contracts, arguing they bypass state playing frameworks and shopper protections. Until now, most formal opposition has come from Democratic lawmakers. Mulvaney’s entry creates a bipartisan squeeze, and he instructed Bloomberg he plans to make the case on to the Trump administration for “widespread sense regulation.” That’s value watching for Kalshi specifically, provided that sports activities represented 76.1% of its quantity this week.

Whatever the CFTC response produces, it’ll form not simply geopolitical market design however the broader query of what occasion sorts can exist on regulated American exchanges. Markets appeal to institutional and retail capital as a result of members belief decision. The business’s long-term progress case is much stronger when that belief holds — and proper now, it’s being examined in actual time.

On the sports activities calendar, the fast catalyst is Selection Sunday on March 15. March Madness trading is the subsequent real quantity occasion for prediction markets — 67 video games, a number of spherical buildings, and a built-in viewers of informal merchants who have interaction with bracket outcomes. NBA playoff positioning is coming into its crucial stretch, with standings-tightening driving game-by-game and season-futures quantity over the subsequent 6-8 weeks. Soccer is drawing growing consideration throughout each platforms, and with the 2026 World Cup on house soil, that curiosity is ready to compound nicely earlier than the match kicks off. Kalshi’s World Cup market liquidity is predicted to construct additional as March Madness concludes.

Meanwhile, the 2026 midterm main season is starting to generate its first severe quantity. Early main contests and candidate submitting deadlines are creating the preliminary political pipeline that can dominate non-sports prediction market exercise by summer season. Polymarket’s structural benefit in politics and macro — already evident within the transaction knowledge — positions it nicely as that cycle accelerates. The mixture of sports activities depth on Kalshi and political breadth on Polymarket could also be precisely what retains the market’s mixed quantity flooring elevated till the subsequent NFL season lifts the tides as soon as once more.

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