MicroStrategy Faces $9 Billion Outflow Risk as Index Providers Eye Bitcoin Holdings
MicroStrategy confronts a vital take a look at as main index suppliers take into account guidelines that would strip the corporate of practically $9 billion in passive funding flows.
MSCI is consulting on new standards that might exclude corporations with digital asset holdings exceeding 50% of whole property.
Index Exclusion Threatens Core Strategy
MicroStrategy, lately renamed Strategy Inc., holds 649,870 Bitcoin as of this writing, with a mean value of $74,430 per coin. The firm’s break-even worth matches this buy level, leaving little margin as Bitcoin trades under pressure.
Its market capitalization is $51 billion on a fundamental share depend and $57 billion totally diluted, whereas enterprise worth is $66 billion.
MSCI started a proper session in September 2025 on how you can deal with digital-asset treasury companies (DATs).
According to MSCI’s official session documents, the proposed rule would exclude corporations the place digital property comprise 50% or extra of whole property and signify the principle enterprise exercise.
Some purchasers argue that these firms resemble funding funds relatively than eligible working firms for fairness indexes.
The dangers prolong additional than MSCI. Strategy’s stock, MSTR, is listed in a number of key benchmarks, together with the Nasdaq 100, CRSP US Total Market Index, and numerous Russell indexes.
Analysis from JPMorgan means that MSCI exclusion alone might lead to $2.8 billion in passive fund gross sales. If different suppliers make comparable adjustments, the overall outflows might attain $8.8 billion.
The potential elimination from benchmarks such as the MSCI USA and Nasdaq 100 presents the largest problem but to Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin accumulation method. A last determination is anticipated by January 15, 2026.
Valuation Premium Collapses Amid Bitcoin Downturn
Timing makes these points extra critical. Strategy’s shares have fallen 60% from latest highs, eroding the valuation premium that fueled its capital raise-and-buy technique.
Its a number of to internet asset worth (mNAV) has compressed towards parity, reflecting diminished investor confidence in Saylor’s “promote inventory, purchase Bitcoin, repeat” flywheel.
This premium is essential as a result of Strategy’s mannequin is determined by it. The firm points fairness and convertible debt to fund Bitcoin purchases, hoping shares will commerce above the worth of its Bitcoin holdings.
If that premium is misplaced, the enterprise case weakens since traders can merely buy Bitcoin directly.
Meanwhile, funding prices have elevated. Strategy issued convertible notes earlier in 2025 at larger phrases. With Bitcoin underperforming, the agency faces squeezed profitability.
Its Bitcoin holdings present a 15.81% revenue as of mid-November, however that margin shrinks if costs fall close to the $74,430 break-even.
Market Divided on Index Classification
Not all market contributors agree with the proposed exclusion. Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital property analysis, pointed out on X that JPMorgan’s report displays shopper suggestions shaping index guidelines, relatively than an express name for exclusion.
This highlights the difficulty as being about course of, relatively than simply elementary firm traits.
The session exposes uncertainty round how finance ought to classify Bitcoin treasury firms. MSCI’s guidelines sometimes separate working corporations from funding autos.
Strategy runs analytics software program, however positive aspects most consideration from its Bitcoin holdings, making a hybrid id that complicates classification.
Other firms additionally face assessment. MARA Holdings, Metaplanet Inc., and Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company all maintain sizable digital property.
Yet, Strategy’s scale and prominence make it a take a look at case. If eliminated, it is going to set a precedent for a way indexes deal with public corporations using Bitcoin as a reserve.
The January 15, 2026, determination date is vital. Strategy has to handle its Bitcoin place, funding prices, and meet shareholder expectations throughout this era.
The consequence will present whether or not Bitcoin treasury firms can preserve entry to passive capital or threat reclassification and exclusion from main indexes. For Saylor’s mannequin, the stakes are high.
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