Most Bitcoin On-Chain Indicators Signal a New Bear Market Cycle
Bitcoin continues to commerce close to $92,000 after this week’s rebound, but a rising cluster of on-chain indicators now suggests the market has already slipped into a bearish cycle.
This stands in sharp distinction to current predictions from market leaders like Tom Lee and Arthur Hayes, who argue Bitcoin may nonetheless shut the 12 months considerably increased.
Bullish Predictions Clash With Data
Lee recently softened his earlier $250,000 goal and now expects Bitcoin to stay above $100,000 into year-end.
Meanwhile, Arthur Hayes maintains a much more aggressive view, calling the current dip to the low $80,000s a cycle backside and forecasting a potential transfer towards $200,000–$250,000.
However, the current market structure doesn’t align with both situation.
CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Signals composite reveals why. During earlier bull phases, together with late 2023 and early 2025, the mannequin displayed broad inexperienced circumstances throughout valuation, demand progress, community exercise, and stablecoin liquidity.
Since mid-2025, these parts have turned persistently crimson. MVRV Z-score has flipped into overheated territory, community exercise has weakened, and stablecoin shopping for energy has declined.
The sample resembles the early levels of the 2022 downturn fairly than a continuation of the 2025 rally.
Also, the Bull Score Index, affords a extra granular view. Bitcoin spent the primary half of 2025 in bullish territory with readings above 60.
By late August, the rating started falling sharply, dropping under 40 in October and remaining flat by means of November regardless of short-term worth volatility.
The newest studying sits within the 20–30 vary, deep inside bearish conditions. The bounce from final week’s lows has carried out little to shift the underlying cycle indicators.
Another, the Bull Score mapped to cost, reinforces this view. The mannequin has transitioned from inexperienced “further bullish” indicators earlier this 12 months to persistent crimson “bearish” and “further bearish” readings throughout September, October, and November.
Even the current restoration towards $92,000 is categorized as a bearish-zone rally, mirroring distribution phases seen in earlier cycle tops.
Momentum Metrics Strengthen the Bitcoin Bearish Case
Market momentum indicators now echo the identical cycle shift. RSI stays impartial round 50, signalling a lack of conviction behind this week’s advance.
Chaikin Money Flow has stayed destructive for a lot of the month, reflecting continued capital outflows at the same time as worth recovers.
While MACD not too long ago flipped optimistic, the histogram already reveals weakening amplitude. This signifies the transfer lacks sustained momentum.
Additional indicators deepen the warning. Short-term RSI spikes above 70 in current days failed to carry, exhibiting sellers stay energetic throughout each try at a breakout. CMF’s lack of ability to return to optimistic territory highlights ongoing distribution fairly than accumulation.
Meanwhile, MACD’s fragile crossover mirrors circumstances seen throughout previous bear market rallies, the place momentum improves briefly earlier than rolling over.
Taken collectively, on-chain, liquidity, and momentum indicators level to a structural shift into a bearish cycle.
While Tom Lee and Arthur Hayes argue that Bitcoin may regain its earlier power, present market knowledge suggests the other.
Unless stablecoin liquidity, community exercise, and demand progress rebound decisively, Bitcoin’s current restoration is extra probably a short-term bounce than the start of a new upside section.
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